DraftKings NBA Picks December 11: To Beard or not to Beard?

DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 27: Monte Morris #11 of the Denver Nuggets plays the Los Angeles Lakers at the Pepsi Center on November 27, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Picks December 11: To Beard or not to Beard?

We go from a massive 11 game slate last night to just three games in our DraftKings NBA slate tonight. One of those is the Suns, so that’s like five teams and a G-League team. Of course the spread is big in that one. Both the Suns and Clippers are in back to backs, but the Suns don’t have anyone to rest anyway.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Chris Paul ($7,800): There are all sorts of reasons that I don’t like Lillard tonight. One of the major ones is that Paul kept him under wraps in the first meeting and outscored him by 7 DraftKings points. When you realize that Paul is about $2,000 cheaper, then you can come down here too. That said, this isn’t a great matchup for Paul either. Harden missed the first game against the Blazers, so expecting Paul to top 40 DraftKings points again tonight is a bit of a lofty goal.

Kyle Lowry ($7,200): Lowry hasn’t hit value this month, so I’m thinking most will be off of him. Actually, I’m having a hard time talking myself into this one as well, but the Clippers are so bad against point guards that Lowry looks like the best option at the point. I’ll go down with the ship here if they manage to shut down Lowry.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams ($5,300): There is going to be high ownership on Williams. There always is on small slates. He is one of the few players in this range that can hit 50-60 DraftKings points on any given night. I doubt he does it against the Raptors, but there’s always that slim chance. LouWill is the DFS equivalent of a chip and a chair. However, keep an eye on that hamstring injury.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($4,900): I’m not crazy about running a rookie out there against Lowry, but that’s where we’re at tonight. SGA has consistently been around 20-30 DraftKings points and value with guaranteed minutes is hard to come by on this slate. I would probably stick to cash games with SGA, but if you are just trying to cash in a GPP, he’s worth a look.

Dark Horses:

De’Anthony Melton ($4,300): Melton has done a little less starting at point for the Suns than he did from the bench, but he is still hitting more than 6x value for his price. That puts him firmly in play tonight, but he may be the only Suns player that I really trust, even on this small of a slate. Most of the rest of that team is a mess, and so is the rotation.

Elie Okobo ($3,800): Okobo played well in a bench role, so I imagine that the Suns will leave him there for now. Still, there isn’t a lot of upside here. However, with just 22.8 DraftKings points needed for 6x value, that is enough upside to do us good in a GPP on a short slate.

My pick: Lowry(PG), Melton(G); SGA(PG), Melton(G)

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 22: DeMar DeRozan #10 of the San Antonio Spurs before an inbound in the game against the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on October 22, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($10,700): Harden tips the scale as the most expensive player. He might be worth it. He might not. Harden has been above 50 DraftKings points in all but the Utah game since Paul returned, but has only hit 5x value once. Still, a sure 50 on this slate is worth paying for. We wont be alone. Ownership on Harden could top 50%.

DeMar DeRozan ($9,200): The only risk with DeRozan here is the risk of a blowout. His first two games against the Suns this year weren’t great, but he also had Booker playing defense on him. That wont be the case tonight. DeRozan is going to have a lot of free space to work his magic tonight, but the chances of him playing more than 30 minutes are minimal.

Honorable Mention:

CJ McCollum ($6,800): McCollum picked up 30 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Rockets, but he has been over that mark in eight of the last ten games. And let’s face it. The first meeting was because he only played 27 minutes. So did Lillard, but I’m still not that wild about starting anyone against CP3 at that price.

Dark Horses:

Danny Green ($4,600): About the only thing we can say for Green is that he gets minutes and sometimes he does something with them. His number of shots fluctuates, as does every other aspect of his production. Green is a role player on a good team, so predicting his value is nearly impossible. However, the first thing that we look at in a value play is minutes, and Green definitely gets those. He hasn’t been under 30 minutes since November 27th.

Troy Daniels ($3,600): Daniels is picking up a ton of minutes with Booker out and no one else scoring. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in four straight games. The return of Warren put a dent in his production, but Daniels is still in play until Booker gets back.

My pick: McCollum(SG); Harden(SG)

BOSTON, MA – NOVEMBER 16: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors looks on during the first half against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on November 16, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kawhi Leonard ($9,400): Leonard has at least 44 DraftKings points in nine of the last 11 games. Now he catches the Clippers on the second night of a back to back, who were pushed by the Suns last night. This is a very good spot for Kawhi to continue his hot streak. Kawhi may also be the safest player to build around tonight unless you trust Harden.

Honorable Mention:

Danilo Gallinari ($6,500): I don’t mind running Gallo out there, but I really have no interest in using Tobias against Kawhi. Gallinari should pick up the slack with Harris having to deal with Leonard tonight, so he should be in for another solid night. Gallinari has nine straight games with more than 30 DraftKings points. That streak hits double digits tonight.

Rudy Gay ($6,400): Gay has at least 45 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. In the other two he has 26 and 3.75 respectively. Gay only played 21 minutes against the Suns the first time around, so there is plenty of risk here. However, the Suns actually tried last night and hung with the Clippers for a while. Gay is a high risk play tonight, but there could be a good reward if this game stays pretty close.

Dark Horses:

Josh Jackson ($5,500): One of the few things the Suns have done right lately is give Josh Jackson run even when they are getting blown out. His game is improving seemingly by the game, and the status of Warren hasn’t hurt his output. Jackson hasn’t really had a big game this year, but he is a constant value. Don’t underestimate the importance of that on a slate like this.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,700): I don’t particularly like this spot for Aminu, but he has been over 32 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. The only one he missed was the Suns game in which he played just 25 minutes. Aminu’s price is still low enough that we can feel pretty good about 5x value, even against Houston. We have to take chances on a small slate, and this looks like one of the lower risk ones presented to us.

My pick: Gay(SF), Gallinari(F); Leonard(SF)

PHOENIX, AZ – NOVEMBER 14: LaMarcus Aldridge #12 of the San Antonio Spurs during the second half of the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on November 14, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,100): I know that many are going to be on LMA tonight, but I can’t bring myself to endorse this. In two games against the Suns, LMA has 49.75 DraftKings points combined in 52 minutes in those games. This should be a spot where Aldridge dominates, but he hasn’t yet.

Honorable Mention:

Montrezl Harrell ($6,600): Harrell was slowed down by Memphis, but got back on track against Miami and Phoenix. Toronto has had issues with interior defense lately, and Harrell is a points per minute animal. This looks like a great spot for him because he is guaranteed about 30 minutes per game.

Pascal Siakam ($6,300): Siakam is an automatic 27-35 DraftKings points and has been for most of the last month. This is another big spot for him, but even in those matchups, Siakam rarely goes more than mid-30’s. Still, I can find room for that in tonight’s lineups. He is one of the better options out there on this slate.

Dark Horses:

Trevor Ariza ($5,000): The Suns seem to be showcasing Ariza for a possible trade since they have run him 73 minutes over the last two games. Maybe it’s only a coincidence that the Suns have lost those two games by a combined 21 points after losing the one he only played 23 minutes in by 22. Maybe it’s just the fact that the Suns literally have no one else. Ariza put up 32.25 DraftKings points in the first game against the Spurs. There is decent potential here.

Richaun Holmes ($4,100): Holmes continues to beast in his limited minutes. He actually played 25 minutes last night, his highest total of the season. There is a chance that the Suns elect to play him more against LMA and Poeltl inside, but he still wont see more than 25 minutes. Still, Holmes is an animal even in limited minutes. He’s still likely to hit 6x value here.

My pick: Siakam(PF), Ariza(UTIL); Siakam(PF), Holmes(F)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 20: Jusuf Nurkic #27 of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts after being fouled during the fourth quarter of the game against New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on November 20, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Clint Capela ($7,700): This is not a great matchup for Capela on paper. You can tell him. I want no part of that. Dallas and Utah have done a pretty good job on him defensively, and Portland only allowed 38.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Capela isn’t going to go all that far above value if at all, so if you think you can get better value in GPP, go for it. I still like Capela in cash games.

Jusuf Nurkic ($7,500): Nurkic put up 40 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Rockets. I’m not crazy about either side of this matchup. There are names at center tonight, but for the most part the matchups aren’t that desirable. Nurkic has solid upside, especially considering he did it earlier this year in just 24 minutes.

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Honorable Mention:

Deandre Ayton ($6,700): I don’t particularly like this spot for Ayton, but we can’t ignore what he has done lately. Ayton has 80.75 DraftKings points over the last two games, and his minutes really haven’t increased all that much. We are starting to see Ayton become a force, and the price is decent enough that we can take a chance on Ayton on a small slate.

Serge Ibaka ($6,200): Ibaka can be frustrating, but he rakes in good matchups. Mostly. He didn’t do much against Brooklyn, but that was a Jonas night. The Raptors have started using the centers based on the opponents. Since the Clips don’t have a real center unless they #FREEBOBAN, this appears to be an Ibaka night. Play him an enjoy the value!

Dark Horse:

Jakob Poeltl ($4,100): Utah contained Poeltl some, but a larger part of that was the fact that he only took three shots. This is not a great matchup for Poeltl, but he does have 35.25 DraftKings points in 27 minutes over two games against the Suns this year. This looks like a good place to take advantage of this value, even with limited upside.

My pick: Nurkic(C); Ibaka(C), Poeltl(UTIL)

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