FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 12/11 – Play Two, Fade One

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Welcome back, NBA DFS players, to the Tuesday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS more than NBA players love randomly resting during the regular season (like seriously, yesterday was NUTS).

As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Tonight we have a super small, somewhat tricky 3-game slate.  We have two games that feature good teams that should stay competitive and one potential blowout (and the name of the article may give away my strategy tonight).  FanDuel pricing, as usual, has presented us with quite a challenge in roster construction.  I’ll be going game-by-game instead of position by position today since it’s such a small slate.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. Yesterday’s slate was the perfect example of what can happen  when injury and rest situations can entirely change the slate so my best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary. Having said that, let’s dive right into the games!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Portland @ Houston

This is definitely a game that we want exposure to tonight.  The Rockets are six-point underdogs and this game will likely have the second highest total on the board.  Let’s start with the Houston side here.

James Harden (11500) is going to be a core play for me tonight. He’s the most expensive player on the slate, but he offers the highest floor and ceiling of anyone.  Harden has tormented the Blazers over the years and over his last ten games against Portland he’s averaged 36 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists.

Chris Paul (8200) will be a strategic fade for me. His price is tempting, but he’s been really mediocre this season and with Harden running the show, he offers us little upside. I also try not to use point guards against Portland as Damian Lillard is a solid defender and Portland ranks 6th best against the point guard position this year.

Clint Capela (9100) is usually the next Rocket I’m clicking into lineups, but he’s still priced way up. FanDuel is making it tough on us today with these prices. If you’re game-stacking this game I don’t mind playing Cap here, but just remember he needs 54 FD points to hit 6x value at this price. I think there some cheaper options at center we can use.

James Ennis (4000) and P.J. Tucker (4400) are not fun players to use in DFS, but I think they are in play today as I like attacking Portland on the wings. Neither of them are high usage players, but they really just need to hit a couple of threes and grab a few boards and steals to hit value for us at these prices and I feel like we are going to need a few punt plays as we are being forced into a “stars and scrubs” type lineup build today.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Portland @ Houston

If I can only have one Portland player in my lineups tonight it’s Damian Lillard (10200). Dame is sporting a 30% usage rate and has been hot lately, scoring the ball with ease and averaging 8 assists over his last four games.  The old “Chris Paul defense” narrative can be thrown out the window as Houston is ranked 17th this season against point guards and Dame is an elite scorer who can get his shot against anyone. He’s expensive, but I think he and Harden can both go for 60+ tonight in this game.

The other two of Portland’s “Big 3” are C.J. McCollum (7300) and Jusuf Nurkic (9000). Nurk is coming off a massive game against the Timberwolves but continues to play less than 30 minutes a game. I’m not sure I can justify spending that much cap on a player who doesn’t see that much floor time. McCollum is a possible pivot off Lillard, but he’s priced up higher than what he usually costs, too. My interest in him is really only as part of a game-stack.

There are some value plays here from Portland we should consider at small forward. Evan Turner (4700), Mo Harkless (4400), and even Jake Layman (3500) are all getting enough minutes to make them viable plays. Figuring out which one makes value tonight is anyone’s guess, however. I don’t mind any of them if you’re looking for a pure punt play.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Phoenix @ San Antonio

This is the game I’m crossing off tonight. The Spurs are 12.5 point favorites at home and have already walloped the Suns twice this year. I’m simply not paying up for the Spurs studs because I don’t think they see anywhere near their normal amount of playing time here tonight. Coach Popovich is well-known for getting his starters some extra rest if he thinks the bench players can handle a game at a certain point.

Phoenix played an overtime game last night and came up short against the Clippers. It’s going to be really tempting to plug-in a bunch of Phoenix players for value but I’m going to do my best to avoid them if at all possible. It’s a trap! This game has blowout written all over it and we’ve seen the Suns’ value plays be chalky at other times this season and bust.

If you had to play one Phoenix player in your lineup, my vote would be for DeAnthony Melton (5300) or Richaun Holmes (4500). These two guys are affordable enough that they can likely still make value in a blowout and should get enough minutes in this game even if it gets lopsided early. Troy Daniels is only 3700 and playing a lot of minutes, too. He could make value in mop-up time.

For the Spurs, I’m looking at some value plays from their second unit to round out my “studs and duds” builds. Marco Belinelli (3700), Derrick White (4200), Patty Mills (3700) and Jakob Poeltl (4200) are all firmly in play for me here in the hope that they get extended run here in a blowout against a bad Suns defense.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Toronto @ L.A. Clippers

The Raptors head to L.A. to face the Clippers in a game that should be the fastest paced on the slate. I am trying my hardest to fit Kawhi Leonard (10700) into my lineups tonight as he has one of the best matchups on the board against a leaky Clipper defense that was exposed by the Suns last night. Kawhi is priced as high as we have seen him this year, but he still has a great shot for 55+ FD points if the game does stay close (and I expect it to).

The other Raptors options I’m looking at here are big men Serge Ibaka (6500) and Pascal Siakam (6800). Both of these guys are stat stuffers who can score, rebound, and rack up defensive stats and the Clippers have been abused inside by opposing big men. They are both great fits for an up-tempo game as they can run the court with Kawhi and Kyle Lowry (7800 – slumping badly, likely a fade for me). Jonas Valanciunas (5300) is not in play for me unless we get word he is starting to match up with Boban. I still think it’s likely that the game plays fast and he gets run off the court.

The only guy on the Raptors second unit who’s viable in my opinion is Fred Van Vleet (4300) as he sometimes plays 25 minutes in his sixth man role and maybe he gets hot tonight and gets some extra burn with Kyle Lowry slumping.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Toronto @ L.A. Clippers

The Clippers are a tough team to peg tonight. The players we really want (Tobias Harris, Montrezl Harrell, Danilo Gallinari) to use are priced in no man’s land for my preferred roster build as they all are priced in the 6-8k range.  If you want to all out stack this game then it would make sense to grab two of these guys to run it back with against Kawhi and Ibaka/Siakam.

Lou Williams (5200) left last night’s game early with a hamstring and I’m guessing he’s probably doubtful for tonight based on my own experience with hamstring injuries. If he misses, then that means more minutes for rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (5100), who had a solid game last night and has shown this year that he’s a capable fantasy producer. He’s my favorite Clipper tonight on a point-per-dollar basis.

Avery Bradley (3900) is cheap but man it’s hard to click on his name. Consider last night that he played 37 minutes and still only scored 10 FD points. Yikes. The best punt play from L.A. might be Boban Marjanovic (3600) if he gets the start again. He started last night’s game, but only played 16 minutes so it’s possible his coach wanted to keep him fresh for another start tonight. He’s an elite per-minute producer so even if he only plays 15 minutes again tonight he can still score you 20+ FD points and his salary savings helps us fit other stud players into our builds.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

My strategy will be to target the Houston-Portland and Clippers-Raptors games for the majority of my players and I’m trying to limit my exposure to the Phoenix-San Antonio game as much as possible. The pricing on FD is tough today and I think we will winning scores that are a lot lower than last night.

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Core Plays

Damian Lillard (10200)

James Harden (11500)

Kawhi Leonard (10700)

I’m simply trying to lock in the three highest raw scorers tonight and try to find the right combination of value to make it work. If you can only fit two of the core plays in your lineup due to lack of cap room, then I highly suggest playing at least two of these guys.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s what I am looking at this morning.

PG: Damian Lillard (10200)
PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (5200)
SG: James Harden (11500)
SG: Marco Belinelli (3700)
SF: James Ennis (4000)
SF: Kawhi Leonard (10700)
PF: Serge Ibaka (6500)
PF: Richaun Holmes (4500)
C: Boban Marjanovic (3600)

Thanks for reading and make sure you check out all the other great content @fantasyCPR! Good luck in your contests!