FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 12/12 – King George!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Welcome back, my fellow NBA DFS junkies, to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS more than the Suns like tanking (I bet Devin Booker can’t wait to come back to that team once Ariza is traded).  Have I ever mentioned I hate the Suns before?

All jokes aside, thanks for joining me for the FanDuel NBA Breakdown again today.  As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

We go from what ended up being one of the worst 3-game slates all season to a huge 11-game slate tonight. There will no shortage of solid plays and it should be pretty easy to make lineups that you’re going to like. I’ll be going position by position today in an attempt to give you my top 2-3 plays at each position.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

I’m also going to keep my “value plays” section where I spotlight players under 5k that we can use to help fit in our favorite studs and “core plays” section at the end which gives you my three favorite players to build around.  And of course, I always include my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  As the season goes along, we run into more and more injury and rest situations that can entirely change the slate so my best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary. Let’s take a look at what this massive slate has to offer tonight!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 11 Game Slate

Injury Report

***Gordon Hayward is doubtful for the Celtics, while teammates Al Horford and Aaron Baynes are questionable. There could be some value in Boston again even with Kyrie back.

***Dennis Smith Jr. is OUT tonight for the Mavs. Hello, Jalen Brunson!

***Tristan Thompson is OUT for 2-4 weeks for the Cavs. Yikes.

***Reggie Bullock and Ish Smith remain OUT for the Pistons, but Stanley Johnson is probable.

***Victor Oladipo is officially questionable for the Pacers.

***Nikola Mirotic is OUT for the Pelicans. Etwaun Moore is questionable.

***Jimmy Butler is OUT for the Sixers tonight.

***Trey Burke and Alonzo Trier are both out for the Knicks.

***John Wall is probable to return for the Wizards

Headlines

Raptors-Warriors: Part Deux

Kawhi should be back tonight for the Raptors, who made quick work on the Clippers last night without him. Meanwhile, the Warriors will be at full strength this time and looking for avenge their overtime loss from last month.

Midwestern Showdown

The Pacers host the Bucks tonight in a matchup between two Eastern Conference rivals. Giannis should be well rested after taking Monday off and the Pacers could get Victor Oladipo back tonight.

Pelicans: Contenders or Pretenders?

New Orleans hosts the Thunder tonight in a game that will be highly targeted in DFS. After a bad loss to a Kyrie-less Celtics team dropped them under .500, the Pelicans have a chance to show that their early season success wasn’t fluky if they can pull off a win here.

Vegas Info

The Thunder and Pelicans have the highest total tonight at 232.

The second highest total is the Sacramento-Minnesota game at 228.

Both of those games have only a two-point spread, as well as the Cavs-Knicks and Celtics-Wizards.

There are no double-digit spreads tonight, with the Dallas Mavericks being the biggest favorites at 9 points over Atlanta.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

Russell Westbrook (11500)

This may seem like an obvious play, but you really should have some exposure to Westy in tournaments tonight. I prefer to play Paul George, but I think there’s a case to be made for playing them both if you really want to target this game against New Orleans.

Westy has an elite 33% usage rate and the Pelicans are bleeding points to point guard (and nearly every position).  The Thunder have the highest team total on the board and if this game stays as close as its projected to then Westy is in for a big night. He was well on his way to a solid outing in their first matchup this season before getting hurt and leaving the game early. This is a no-brainer, make sure you have some Westbrook lineups tonight.

Spencer Dinwiddie (6000)

If Westbrook is too obvious then I’ll a little more contrarian here with Dinwiddie. Not many people want to spend 6k on a bench player, but I think Dinwiddie is underpriced here tonight. He’s not your average bench player, as he usually sees 30 minutes of court time and serves as the Nets sixth man.  They’ve been forced to start him at times and he simply isn’t as effective when he has to share the court for long stretches with D’Angelo Russell.

Dinwiddie has a solid 24% usage rate and I like using point guards to attack the Sixers defense. He had one of his best games of the season earlier this year against Philly when he dropped a 31-2-5 line on them in only 29 minutes. He’s aggressive on drives to the basket and a solid 3-point shooter.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal (8700)

You probably won’t see Beal written up in many other articles today. He’s priced up based on John Wall being out lately and now Wall returns. His ownership will be minuscule, but I think he has a ton of upside here in a game that hopefully stays close. He’s had some success against Boston in his career and while most people will shy away from using players against Boston, I won’t. Beal has the ability to go off even with Wall back in the lineup, and could still be asked to do a lot of the heavy lifting on offense if Wall isn’t 100% recovered from his injury.

Jaylen Brown (5500)

Staying in the same game, I love Jaylen Brown here as a nice mid-tier play. With Kyrie coming back, most will look to him in this game.  But with Hayward out, we should see Brown dominate the usage with the second unit, a role that is now thriving in after being fairly mediocre as a starter. The Wizards defense is bad, so I want some Celtics in my lineup tonight and Brown’s price is right. If he plays 25 minutes off the bench I think he can absolutely crush in this spot.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard (10100)

I love paying up at small forward tonight and I’m going to have some shares of Kawhi in this matchup with the Warriors. He was likely rested last night not for an ailing hip, but because the Raptors wanted him fresh for this big game. He absolutely torched the Dubs last month in this same spot and he seems to have his biggest performances in big games. I like him to go off again tonight and I think he’s worth spending for in tournaments.

Paul George (9100)

Is “King George” too much? Had to get your attention with that headline and I can’t overstate how awesome this spot is for PG13. The Pelicans get hammered by wing players and George is the perfect type of player to give them fits tonight. He’s having a really tremendous season this year and he usually gets overlooked on slates like tonight when people are drawn to Westbrook and not willing to pay this price for the second best player on a team.

George should excel in this fast-paced game and his big appeal to me is his upside for defensive stats. At 2.2 steals a game and .8 blocks he’s averaging 9 FD points just from those defensive stats and he should be able to force plenty of turnovers tonight in this game tonight that should have a lot of possessions. He’s one of the top plays on the board and I don’t think he will be chalky at all.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

Larry Nance Jr. (5800)

Who else are the Cavs going to play inside? With Tristan Thompson out, Nance should be locked into big minutes in a juicy matchup here with the Knicks. We’ve seen what Nance can do when he gets big minutes, as he’s a solid inside scorer, rebounder and defender. He might be chalky, but I am not going to overthink this one. We have to save some salary somewhere and power forward looks like a good spot to spend down.

Marcus Morris (5700)

No “sibling narrative” for me here, but yes, Marcus will square off against his brother Markieff tonight. Marcus had a huge night against the Pelicans, scoring a season-high 31 actual points as he got hot from behind the arc. We don’t know the status of Horford and Baynes yet, but even if they play it’s hard not to love Morris against the Wizards and their terrible defense. I’m rolling him out there and hoping he can keep up the hot shooting. Maybe a little motivation to show up his twin brother doesn’t hurt, either.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

Joel Embiid (10700)

I’m going to spend up at center tonight and I absolutely love Embiid here in this spot. We’ve been waiting for him to have another huge game for a while now and tonight should be that night. With Jimmy Butler out he’s likely to have a usage rate north of 35% tonight and the matchup couldn’t be any better as we know centers absolutely destroy Brooklyn inside. He will be popular but fade at your own risk. You’re better off just “trusting the process” and going with Embiid here as he should go nuts in this game.

Karl Anthony Towns (9700)

The big KAT has been eating lately, averaging 27-11-3 over his last four games. He is a full 1000 cheaper than Embiid with a comparable ceiling so he’s favorite pivot off the Embiid ownership if you’re looking to be a little sneakier. He has an equally tremendous matchup against the Kings here as we’ve seen centers hammer them all year long. I’m going to have some Towns exposure here tonight and might just stack that whole game up (more on that soon!)

***Julius Randle (8800) is also an elite play with Mirotic out.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays

I wanted to add this section to the breakdown so I could elaborate on some of my favorite values for each slate. For our purposes, I am going to consider a player a “value play” if they are 5000 or less. There are some really solid values here in this range tonight, and we could see more value open up tonight if we get some more players ruled out before lineup lock.

Jalen Brunson (4500) – Core Play

It’s not often that I make a value play a core play, too. But I absolutely love this spot for Brunson, who should get the nod again tonight for the Mavs with Dennis Smith Jr. already ruled out.  Brunson has looked great in his brief run as a starter and has an excellent matchup here against fellow rookie Trae Young in a pace up game against Atlanta, one of the worst defensive teams in the league, especially against point guards.

Damyean Dotson (4200)

With Trier and Burke both out for the Knicks, Dotson should be the bench guard who gets the most run tonight. His price is finally back down where we can use him and he could have a big night against this poor Cavs perimeter defense.

Kevin Knox (4900)

It’s hard to trust any Knicks players, but Knox seems to have secured a solid role off the bench as he’s not shy about chucking up shots when he’s on the floor.  He’s coming off a 26-15 outing against the Hornets where he played 41 minutes so he could easily pay off this tag if he gets 25-30 minutes and is making some shots.

T.J. McConnell (4300)

T.J. stepped in for Jimmy Buckets in a big way in their last game and produced with 14-4-6 off the bench in 28 minutes. He’s fireplug of a player who can rack up stats quickly and should be able to make value here against Brooklyn with another 25 minutes off the bench.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Minnesota @ Sacramento (228 total)

We are going to see the New Orleans-Oklahoma City game heavily targeted tonight and for good reason. But this game between the Kings and Wolves could be equally fantasy friendly and it’s easier to make some game stacks with these players as they’re not as expensive as the likes of Westbrook, George, Davis, and Randle.

If you’re building this stack I’d include DeAaron Fox (7800) as your first Kings piece. He has been the lead guard all year long and he should be able to exploit his matchup with either Jeff Teague or Derrick Rose all night long. The other Kings I’m really interested in are the shooting guards Buddy Hield (6100) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (6200).  These shooting guards should get Andrew Wiggins defense and hopefully avoid Robert Covington. The Sacramento big men are not as appealing here to me as we have no idea how the minutes will be divided up among Bagley, Bjelica, and Cauley-Stein.

I’d rather not roster Cauley-Stein at center because we need that spot for the aforementioned Towns, who is the first Minnesota guy to run it back with.  Jeff Teague (6600) and Derrick Rose (5900) are both solid pieces to include here as well, with Rose being the hotter of the two players at the minute and is a full 700 cheaper.

So to recap, my ideal stack here is Fox-Buddy OR Bogdan-Rose-Towns.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

My strategy will be to spend up at small forward and center today, while using some value at shooting guard, point guard, and power forward. There’s a ton of good plays today but I feel really good about these three as my core.

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Core Plays

Joel Embiid (10700)

Paul George (9100)

Jalen Brunson (4500)

Remember, when building around a core you don’t have to include all three guys in every lineup. You can rotate them into other builds individually with game stacks or just use two of the three sometimes when you’re strapped for cap space.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s what I am looking at this morning.

PG: Jalen Brunson (4500)
PG: Spencer Dinwiddie (6000)
SG: Bradley Beal (8700)
SG: Damyean Dotson (4200)
SF: Paul George (9100)
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic (5200)
PF: Marcus Morris (5700)
PF: Larry Nance (5800)
C: Joel Embiid (10700)

Thanks for reading and make sure you check out all the other great content @fantasyCPR! As always, I love hearing from readers, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter with your feedback.  Good luck in your contests!