DraftKings NBA Picks December 13: King vs. Beard. Who wins the DFS battle?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks December 13: The King vs. The Beard. Who wins the fantasy battle?
There are only four games for our DraftKings NBA tournament tonight. Dallas is in the second night of a back to back, but they are limited by injuries anyway. They couldn’t rest anyone of they wanted to. The Suns are the late game, so good luck if you want a late night hammer. You have a better chance of hitting your thumb.
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Last night was an ugly slate in its own right. Cleveland channeled their inner Knicks and only played Blossomgame for part of the third quarter. Failed value form Drummond and KAT hurt as well. One of my lineups was able to survive thanks to a pivot to Lowry after Kawhi was ruled out. That put the lineup to 297 DraftKings points, just barely above the 296.75 money line.
The winning lineup was up to 382 DraftKings points, seven full points ahead of second place. He built around Embiid, Simmons, and Kemba and got huge value from Jeff Green, Korkmaz, Allen Crabbe, Dinwiddie, and Clarkson.
The larger slates are where I usually pepper smaller entry fee tournaments with several lineups that I like. That is probably how I am going to approach this as well.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bet:
Chris Paul ($8,600): Paul is usually a fade when Harden is on the court, but considering Paul put up 55.25 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in the first meeting, he is worth considering here. There isn’t much on this slate, especially if we are fading (most of) the Suns. That leaves Paul as the clear top option at the point and one of the best of the night.
Honorable Mention:
Lonzo Ball ($5,600): You wont see me lining up to use a point guard against Paul, but again, it’s a short slate and the options are limited. And, well, Lonzo put up 29.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Rockets. The caveat is that Lonzo only played 26 minutes in that game while Rondo played 29 (and rocked the Rockets for over 40 DraftKings points). There is decent potential here, and the price is definitely right.
De’Anthony Melton ($4,900): Melton has 70.75 DraftKings points in his two starts, so I see no reason not to use him here. He is about the only Suns player we can rely on right now. And the price is still in a range where he’s going to come close to 7x value. That could be huge on a slate like this.
Dark Horses:
Jalen Brunson ($4,300): A rough night last night destroyed many a lineup. It is likely that Dennis Smith will sit again, so Brunson should start again. Dallas wont need Smith against the Suns. This should be a much better matchup for Brunson, but last night showed the pitfalls of chasing value. Nothing is ever truly safe.
Derrick White ($3,800): White is seeing good run lately, and the Clippers didn’t defend guards well when everyone was healthy. White is kind of hit and miss with all of the guards in the Spurs backcourt, but they have given him consistent minutes. I wouldn’t trust Mills here, but White is worth a look. The minutes seem consistent.
Jawun Evans ($3,400): With Okobo out of the picture, Evans played 26 minutes and picked up a solid 14.75 DraftKings points against the Spurs. He will likely get better, but how much? This is a more risky value play, but it could work out. I don’t know if I want to mess with the Suns rotations right now though.
My pick: Paul(PG), Melton(G); White(PG)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
James Harden ($10,900): Harden was a flop on Tuesday, and there is a real possibility that he could be here as well. However, Harden amassed 57.75 DraftKings points on the Lakers in the first meeting with Paul in the lineup. There is a decent chance of him hitting 5x value here. At any rate, he shouldn’t be as low as he was on Tuesday.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,500): DeRozan racked up 56.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Clippers this year. He was a huge disappointment against the Suns, but most of that was because DeRozan only played 26 minutes in the blowout win. This should be a closely contested game, and DeRozan is the guy that is going to lead the Clippers. He could hit 50 again.
Honorable Mention:
Zach LaVine ($7,400): Honestly, I’m not sure I trust any of the Bulls right now under the new coach. Minutes have been sporadic in the two games for most everyone, and now the team is finally getting healthy. Without knowing who is going to get the minutes and when, this whole thing is kind of the Suns right now. I do think there is value to be found here, but you pretty much have to guess right to find it. LaVine seems worth the risk since when he’s in there, he shoots. This price isn’t horrible, and this is a decent matchup.
Terrence Ross ($5,500): This is a great spot here for Ross against the Bulls, but he has had two poor games in a row. On top of that, this game is in Mexico City. For shooters like Ross, playing in an arena that you have never played in before can be a big deal. So can playing in an arena that wasn’t made for basketball. Ask anyone who played in the NCAA Final Four 50,000 seat plus stadiums. Shooters are easily throw off by things being out or proportion in a place like this. The Bulls are an easy fade anyway, but I am tempted to ignore the Magic here as well even though this is a money matchup.
Dark Horses:
J.J. Barea ($4,400): Barea finally got his shot back on track last night. It was a welcome sight for us DFS players that kept chasing him expecting him to mirror the lines he had the first time that Smith was out. While we may not see Barea in the 40’s anytime soon, low 30’s is a possibility, which would net us 7x value!
Bryn Forbes ($4,300): Your chance to make money with Forbes was on Tuesday when he was low owned and put up a big 47.25 DraftKings points. That’s going to make him chalk against the Clippers, and I can’t argue with eating it for the price. There isn’t much to build with in the mid range so we are going to be looking for any value we can get. This seems to be the best of it.
Tyrone Wallace ($3,200): We found who is going to fill the role of sharpshooter off the bench while Lou Williams is out. Wallace was 6-11 from the floor and contributed across the board in his 24 minutes, piling up 31.5 DraftKings points. He could be a huge bargain here.
My pick: Harden(SG), Wallace(UTIL); Harden((SG), DeRozan(G), Forbes(UTIL)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
LeBron James ($11,000): Any time the King is on a short slate he at least deserves a few moments of our time. The first meeting between the King and the Beard ended with Harden having a much better game and LeBron going 9-22 from the floor. I’m tempted to ride this Houston side of this one again, especially with the game in Houston. However, LeBron has topped 60 DraftKings points in three of the last four games.
Kyle Kuzma ($7,600): Once again, Kuzma has been a beast with Ingram out. That is now six straight games with more than 40 DraftKings points. In that streak were tough matchups with the Spurs (twice), Memphis, Miami, and Dallas. So yeah, I would even use him against Houston here on a small slate. This is the kind of consistency you want in cash games, and the kind that can help you cash in a GPP on what could be another wild night.
Honorable Mention:
Danilo Gallinari ($6,600): Gallo is almost always between 25 and 35 DraftKings points. The issue is that he now needs to be on the upper end of that to hit value nowadays. There’s a chance he could do it against the Spurs. There’s a chance that this game could turn into a blowout. With the 2018-19 Spurs, you never know.
Rudy Gay ($6,200): I feel a lot better about using Gay now that his minutes and production have somewhat stabilized. After DeRozan nothing on this team is guaranteed, but Gay has averaged 37 DraftKings points over the last four games. He also put up 30 in the first meeting with the Clippers. Gallinari may have the most upside, but I would argue that Gay is the safer play.
Dark Horses:
Josh Jackson ($5,200): The return of Warren didn’t hurt Jackson’s minutes, but he was an awful 2-14 from the floor to kill his value for the night. Jackson is the only one besides Melton with guaranteed minutes here, but his production isn’t guaranteed. I feel pretty good about Jackson hitting value most nights since he is one of the few and the proud with a defined role on this team. I trust him more than Warren right now.
Gerald Green ($3,700): The injury to Ennis has opened up room for Green to pick up more minutes. He responded with 28.25 DraftKings points in 21 minutes against the Blazers. Green put up 19 DraftKings points in 17 minutes against the Lakers the first time around. If he plays around 21 minutes again, it’s safe to assume that Green is going to be at 7x value tonight.
My pick: Jackson(SF), Gay(F); Green(SF), Gay(PF), Jackson(F)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Aaron Gordon ($7,800): The price in this has me wanting to fade, but Gordon is more of a close to the basket shooter, and there should be plenty of rebounds up for grabs in this one. Gordon could really take it at this Bulls interior, so I am less nervous about him than the Orlando guards.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,500): Aldridge is a bit of an enigma with DeRozan on the court. He hasn’t hit value since December 2nd, but he did put up 39.5 DraftKings points the first time against the Clippers. This is a good matchup for Aldridge, so he might hit value here. I can also see it happening with low ownership due to his inconsistent totals.
Honorable Mention:
Tobias Harris ($7,300): Harris followed up one of his better performances on Monday by his worst on Tuesday. This is quite a change for Harris, who has been remarkably consistent most of the season. Chalk it up to an off game. Harris put up 37.5 DraftKings points against the Spurs the first time around. That would put him right at 5x value tonight.
Harrison Barnes ($5,900): This looks like a smash spot for Barnes, but he has been painfully below average for the last two weeks. With the huge potential for another blowout, I kind of feel like this isn’t really the place to jump back on Barnes either despite the appealing price tag.
Dark Horses:
Bobby Portis ($5,300): I don’t trust one single Bull until this thing, whatever it is, is figured out. However, Portis has a better shot to hit value than most. Portis comes off the bench anyway, and has been very effective in limited minutes for most of his career. On this short of a slate, we may be left looking for some mid range value. Portis is the one Bull that I may take a chance on.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,700): It seems foolish not to play a guy with the initials DFS in daily fantasy, right? DFS has three straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points, and if Wesley Matthews is held out of this game, Finney-Smith could get even more run here. He seems like a very low risk option here unless the Suns get run out of the building. Even if they do, DFS could still play in the fourth since someone will have to be on the court.
My pick: Finney-Smith(PF); N/A
DraftKings NBA Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Vucevic ($8,900): I don’t really trust Vuce here. He shot poorly enough in Dallas without trying to shoot in a gigantic stadium not really made for basketball. His defense is still good enough that he could hit value since the Bulls are weak in the interior, but Vucevic’s chances for a big game take a huge hit in Mexico City.
Clint Capela ($8,200): If there is a clear top play tonight it just might be Capela. He put up 36.5 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the Lakers the first time. Capela has been pretty quiet lately, but this could be the spot where he breaks back out.
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Honorable Mention:
Deandre Ayton ($7,200): Ayton had possibly his best game of his young career in the first meeting with Dallas. He ravaged them for 45 DraftKings points, and that’s a pretty big reason why this spread is still single digits. Playing a rookie is always a risk, but this is an acceptable one on a short slate with one game a complete fade.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,000): You could play the narrative and stack Deandre’s in this game. But for those of us that actually want to win money, that may not be the best idea. Jordan had a solid game in the first meeting and has been generally solid all year long. There is no reason to play him over Ayton, but I can get onboard with playing both of them.
Dark Horses:
Montrezl Harrell ($6,000): Harrell has been in a funk over the last two games, and his minutes have dwindled as a result. His price is down to a more manageable level, but can you trust him right now? Single digit points are bad enough, but Harrell has just six rebounds in 45 minutes in those two games. How far are you willing to go to get separation?
Jakob Poeltl ($4,100): This is strictly a play for you if you see this game getting out of hand. It could. However, if it doesn’t, Poeltl will likely serve as an anchor to your lineup line Brunson and Blossomgame were last night.
Richaun Holmes ($3,800): The minutes aren’t going to magically appear for Holmes. We know that. But he is a beast in fantasy points per minute. Holmes plays 20 minutes. Holmes gets 23 DraftKings points, which is good for close to 6x value.
My pick: Ayton(C); Ayton(C)
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