FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 12/13 – DDR me ASAP!

It’s Thursday and time for another edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS more than the Suns love tanking (yes, two Suns jabs two days in a row).

All jokes aside, thanks for joining me for the FanDuel NBA Breakdown again today.  As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.

When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Last night was pretty wild and I had a pretty good night even with chalk Jalen Brunson tanking some lineups. My other two core plays of Joel Embiid and Paul George had great nights and Spencer Dinwiddie was a very low-owned 8x play.  Kawhi Leonard didn’t play…which sucked. Apparently, he is actually hurt, but the Raptors didn’t need him to beat the Warriors for the second time this season.

I’ll be going game by game today with only four games on tonight’s docket. At least it’s better than only three games, right? I am going to keep the “value plays” section today but drop the “game stack of the night” segment as it gets a bit redundant when I write up each game individually.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.

My best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary. Ok, let’s dive into the games and we will start with the marquee matchup of the slate!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Lakers-Rockets

This game has the highest total on the slate and has the most star power of any of the games tonight. The Lakers are playing well even without Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo, as Lebron James (11700) and Kyle Kuzma (7900) have put the team on their backs.

I am likely going to have both of these Lakers in my lineups tonight. As they have both been playing heavy minutes and I think they can give us around 100 FD points between them. If I have to prioritize one, it’s LeBron and he’s going in my core.

Josh Hart (4500) continues to start for the Lakers in the absence of Ingram, but he’s been wildly inconsistent. I prefer Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (4100) as my cheap Laker exposure as he’s getting a solid 22-26 minutes off the bench and more shots with the second unit.

The Rockets are a little harder to figure out here. While I would love to plug James Harden in, I think he’s a little too cost prohibitive at 11500 if we already have LeBron penciled in as our spend up.  Chris Paul (8200) is the cheapest of the Rockets big three and has been playing much better lately. The only other Rocket I’m interested in at their prices is Gerald Green (4100 – more on him later)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Clippers-Spurs

The other game between two good teams tonight is the Clippers-Spurs. This game has the second highest total and our tightest spread with the Spurs being only 2.5 point favorites.

I love DeMar DeRozan (9600) here in this matchup for a few reasons. He’s in a pace up spot against a Clippers defense that has been really bad lately, getting shredded by Phoenix and Toronto already this week.

DDR had an outstanding game against the Clips earlier this season when he went 34-6-5 against them and he thrives in these types of games. He’s a great pivot off Harden for 1900 less and I think he can match or exceed Harden tonight at lower ownership. He’s a core play for me.

I’m fading LaMarcus Aldridge (8400) here as he continues to put up lackluster lines on a regular basis. He seems perfectly content to let the offense flow through DeRozan.  There are some cheap Spurs we can use to fill out our rosters that I will get to later.

On the Clippers side, I am going back to the rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (5700). He had a poor outing against San Antonio in their first meeting, but he is uber-talented, cheap, has little competition for minutes with Lou Williams out, and point guard is a position we can use to attack the Spurs with.

The rest of the Clippers core guys are all priced up to where they will have a hard time exceeding 5x value and so the only other Clippers I’m looking at tonight are some bargains I’ll mention in the value plays section.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Bulls-Magic

It’s tempting to cross this entire game off tonight and just pretend it’s a three-game slate. The Bulls have everyone (besides Valentine) healthy now and therefore none of their players have guaranteed minutes and most of them are priced beyond what I’m willing to pay for them.

Kris Dunn (5400) and Bobby Portis (4800) are really the only guys I have moderate interest in at those prices and we would probably need word from their coach that they are going to get 24 minutes to really make them worth playing.

This team is a mess right now and if you’ve heard any of the stories coming out of Chicago it sounds like the players hate the new coach. It’s probably a situation to avoid for the time being.

The Magic are playing really uninspired basketball right now. For a while there it appeared they were trending up, but bad losses to Indiana and Dallas have exposed them for what they really are – mediocre at best.

The match-up against Chicago is certainly a good one as the Bulls play absolutely no defense. So I think we are forced to consider Nikola Vucevic (8800) who could destroy the Chicago interior if the game stays competitive and he actually gets his full allotment of minutes.

Aaron Gordon (8000) also deserves some consideration in tournaments as he’s flashed a decent ceiling recently before the Dallas debacle. Outside of those two big men, I have little interest in the Magic guards and wings.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Mavericks-Suns

Wow, what a late-night hammer we have here (can you feel the sarcasm coming through my keyboard?)  The second game of the TNT double-header features the 4-24 Phoenix Suns, and I’m not sure who scheduled this game for national TV. But as much as I could make fun of the Suns, I think we are forced to consider some players from this game to fill out our rosters.

Jalen Brunson (5500) trolled me hard last night (and a lot of other people as well). But if DSJ is out again tonight then we really have to consider going back to him as this is an amazing spot for him and the other Dallas players. Despite how badly the Suns stink, the Mavs are only 7 point favorites and playing on back-to-back here so I do think this game can stay competitive.

Luka Doncic (7400) is on my radar but only if DSJ does miss tonight. He had a ceiling game last night with 47 FD points against the Hawks and has been taking over as the de-facto point guard on many possessions.  Harrison Barnes (5700) is also way too cheap here even if he’s totally scoring dependent.

For the Suns, it’s all about rookie sensation De’Anthony Melton (6000), who’s really flashed some lately as he’s secured the starting point guard spot and locked up the majority of the minutes with his solid play.

He’s gone for 33 and 35 FD points in his last two games as the starter and has no competition for minutes as the Suns have sent Elie Okobo to the D-league. He will be chalky but seems like the safest PG option on the slate.

T.J. Warren (6400) is interesting here because he can certainly fill up the stat sheet for a Suns team bereft of scorers, but he’d likely need more than the 24 minutes he played on Tuesday to get it done. Hopefully, we get a minutes update on him before lock tonight.

Richaun Holmes (4800) is always tempting as he has elite per-minute numbers but his upside is somewhat capped if he’s only getting 18-22 minutes of run. He still might find his way onto some of my rosters though.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays

Bryn Forbes (3500)

Forbes got priced down to the minimum on FanDuel somehow, despite having his best game of the season with 42.7 FD points against Phoenix. He’s not likely to replicate that tonight, but he’s now played 31 and 32 minutes in his last two games and he’s perfectly capable of getting us 20+ FD points tonight as a punt play.

Tyrone Wallace (3500)

Wallace played 24 minutes on Tuesday night and granted some of those were in mop-up duty as the Clippers got smacked by the Raptors. He’s min-priced and has shown a solid fantasy game when given minutes, which we saw Tuesday when he scored 31.8 FanDuel points in only 24 minutes. He’s a solid punt at a position where the options aren’t great.

Gerald Green (4100)

Green should be in line for another 20+ minutes off the bench for the Rockets tonight as they will be without James Ennis who’s out for a few weeks with an injury.  The Gerald Green experience is always a wild ride, but the dude can get buckets and he’s a potentially elite play at this price as he should get a bunch of looks with the second unit in a pace-up spot against the Lakers.

Jakob Poeltl (4100)

I love this young big man’s game. He’s an old-school center who can dominate around the rim and has an elite rebounding rate. Attacking the Clippers with centers is a solid strategy and Poeltl had 13.8 FD points against them in only 9 minutes in their first meeting. He’s been playing more like 15-20 minutes off the bench for the Spurs lately, which puts him firmly in play for me here as I think he could easily top 20 FD points in 15 minutes.

Boban Marjanovic (3700)

Will Boban get any minutes tonight? Your guess is as good as mine, but if we get word that is definitely in the rotation or starting, then get the beast in your lineups as he is a per-minute fantasy monster who can make value easily in only 15 minutes.

Tyson Chandler (3900)

If we don’t have Boban in our lives, then Tyson Chandler makes for a decent punt at center. He’s secured 18-22 minutes for the Lakers as their backup big man and grabs enough boards and gets enough easy putbacks to get us those 20 FD points we are looking for from a sub 4k punt.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

My strategy is a little different tonight. I’m not really looking to game-stack any of these games, but simply find the best values at each position and plug them in around my core plays. Speaking of which, here are the three guys I’m prioritizing in my FanDuel lineups.

Core Plays

LeBron James (11700)

DeMar DeRozan (9600)

Kyle Kuzma (7900)

Remember, when building around a core you don’t have to include all three guys in every lineup. You can rotate them into other builds individually with game stacks or just use two of the three sometimes when you’re strapped for cap space.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s what I am looking at this morning.

PG: De’Anthony Melton (6000)
PG: Bryn Forbes (3500)
SG: DeMar DeRozan (9600)
SG: Tyrone Wallace (3500)
SF: LeBron James (11700)
SF: Gerald Green (4100)
PF: Kyle Kuzma (7900)
PF: Richaun Holmes (4800)
C: Nikola Vucevic (8800)

Thanks for reading and make sure you check out all the other great content @fantasyCPR! As always, I love hearing from readers, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter with your feedback.  Good luck in your contests!