Fantasy Basketball Picks – NBA DFS Game by Game Breakdown – December 13
After a crazy 11 game slate last night, we only have four NBA DFS games tonight but there are some really nice Fantasy Basketball Picks for Thursday!
Usually when it’s a smaller slate, it’s not all that attractive but this one could be the exception. We have a handful of studs and there are some really nice spots to take advantage of. While that adds to the chalkiness level of a condensed slate, it still makes it a lot of fun to try and find that edge to get you to the top of the leaderboards. Let’s dive in to our top Fantasy Basketball Picks!
Fantasy Basketball Picks – Lakers at Rockets
Pace Ranks – Lakers at 4th, Rockets at 29th
Lakers Breakdown
The Lakers will still be without Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo, leaving LeBron James as the main component of the lineup like he always is, but without those two he sees a bump in usage and FPPM up to 38 percent and 1.63. There’s every reason he should be $11,000 and he drives the hoop over 11 times a game, passing under 19 percent of the time in that situation. The Rockets are allowing the third highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket all season.
Kyle Kuzma has been solid as a rock these past few games, especially with the Lakers shorthanded. He’s seeing a ton of minutes and taking at least 15 shots a night, generally speaking. Right now, he feels like a lock for 40 DK points. Lonzo Ball is coming off a solid game but I refuse to mess with him with Chris Paul defense waiting for him on the other side. The pace has been so low for the Rockets but this game feels like it could get up and down.
Personal Plays – LeBron, Kuzma
Players to Consider – Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Josh Hart
Rockets Breakdown
James Harden hasn’t exactly been the fantasy freak show we’ve come to know and love, but this is as good a spot as any to get a ceiling game from him with Chris Paul not out of the lineup. All season long, the Lakers have been crushed by shooting guards and now they have to try and slow down one of the best in the business. When we look to figure out why the fantasy points haven’t been as high as we’re used to, it can be attributed to almost two more turnovers a game and fewer steals. If I’m paying up for a stud in this game, Harden is my early lean.
Up next, Clint Capela is expensive but in one of the best spots a center can ask for. They give up the fifth most rebounds per game to centers and Capela is 10th in the NBA in boards per game. The Lakers hold the advantage in rebound rate overall but Capela is going to be able to do some damage in this game. Eric Gordon drew the start last game and could do so again but you have to hope he has a great shooting night because there’s not a lot else there. Chris Paul was a monster against Portland but it’s been so out of character this season, he’s at a price point that I’m not crazy about.
Personal Plays – Harden, Capela, P.J. Tucker
Players to Consider – Gordon, Paul
Fantasy Basketball Picks – Clippers at Spurs
Pace Ranks – Clippers at 9th, Spurs at 23rd
Clippers Breakdown
The Clippers will continue to be without Lou Williams for at least another week or so but it was tough to gauge how the team would look without him in this past contest. They got their doors blown off by the Raptors so every player saw fewer minutes than normal. The Spurs have not been the lockdown defensive team that we’re accustomed to so there’s opportunity here since the Clippers stunk last game. Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari both standout as really nice mid-range options especially since the Spurs give up a little over 23 real points to power forwards.
I would keep an eye on Montrezl Harrell leading up to lock as well. He was dealing with a shoulder issue last game and really, his past few games have been very mediocre. If he’s healthy, this could be a good spot for Harrell to get right. The Spurs are allowing the eighth most points in the paint and that is where Harrell does his damage. He’s in the top 15 in both paint touches and paint points per game, which is pretty impressive considering some of the names around him include Rudy Gobert, Steven Adams and Anthony Davis. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains interesting in the stead of Williams, but he’s seen his share of rookie inconsistencies.
Personal Plays – Harris, Gallinari, Harrell
Players to Consider – Gilgeous- Alexander, Boban if he starts
Spurs Breakdown
When everyone is healthy for the Spurs, I really only look at three players too seriously. Sure, if you want to try and get luck by chasing the big game from Bryn Forbes, you can do that. He did see five extra minutes and shot the ball extremely well, so there is significant risk going back to that well. The player that stands out the most is my nemesis, LaMarcus Aldridge. The Clippers have given up the third most points in the paint and the eighth most rebounds while LMA is inside the top 20 in paint touches and points. Aldridge is also inside the top 20 in rebound chances per game and this is a pretty low price for him.
You can always play DeMar DeRozan as well since he leads the team to usage and in FPPM. The Spurs just haven’t been in many competitive games recently so the game log looks crazy inconsistent. Rudy Gay is the third Spur that I think of and in a pace up spot, he’s a nice way to get access to the game if you don’t want to pay up for the bigger names.
Personal Plays – Aldridge, DDR, Gay
Players to Consider – Forbes, Jakob Poeltl
Fantasy Basketball Picks – Bulls at Magic
Pace Ranks – Bulls at 18th, Magic at 25th
Bulls Breakdown
The Bulls are kind of a mess right now and truly aren’t the most appealing team to target. Aside from some of the reported locker room issues, there’s now a lot of bodies to eat away at minutes and production with Kris Dunn and Bobby Portis back in the fold. They both played 20 or so minutes in their return to action and Dunn is building back towards rejoining the starting lineup.
I would rather not get tangled in the Bulls rotation but if you need options from there, I’m looking at Portis and Lauri Markkanen first. Portis has always been a nice FPPM player and considering the Magic are actually worse than the Bulls at rebounding the ball, Portis is needed in that aspect as much as he can go. Markkanen was terrible shooting the ball last game and still pulled out 23.5 DK points. The Magic give up around 21 pints per game to power forwards so Markkanen has a shot at a nice bounce back game.
Personal Plays – Markkanen, Portis
Players to Consider – Dunn, Zach LaVine, Jabari Parker
Magic Breakdown
I’ll take all the Nikola Vucivec tonight, please and thank you. I think there’s a pretty good chance that he’ll be popular, although Capela and DeAndre Jordan are in fantastic spots as well(more on that in a minute). The Magic got blown out their last game and Vuc only played 26 minutes, shooting 4-15. He still scored 38.5 DK points because he snagged 16 boards and his rebounding rate is up 3.5 percent over last year. Now he gets a Bulls team that is in the bottom 10 in rebounds and points given up in the paint as Vuc is 15th in the NBA in that metric.
The rest of the Magic are in great spots as well since the Bulls juts can’t defend at all. They’re 23rd in points given up and even though he is expensive, I think Aaron Gordon could be used if you wanted to. Chicago has given up the fifth most DK points to power forwards this season. Depending on the injury front, Jonathan Isaac and Terrence Ross could pop to the forefront during the day.
Personal Plays – Vucivec, Gordon
Players to Consider – TBD by injury
Fantasy Basketball Picks – Mavericks at Suns
Pace Ranks – Mavericks at 15th, Suns at 21st
Mavericks Breakdown
As of this writing, Wesley Matthews is in the locker room with a shoulder injury so that could be a factor for tonight. If he and Dennis Smith both miss, Harrison Barnes has to look fairly attractive. He’s basically identical to Luka Doncic in FPPM but will cost you $1,800 less. The Suns are far from a matchup that scares you for either player but the best option might just be DeAndre Jordan.
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The Suns have been crushed by centers all season long and in the top six in points and rebounds allowed to opposing centers. That’s what Jordan’s game is and he’d be a very safe bet at his salary. Jalen Brunson has looked decent filling in for Dennis Smith and he’s still a nice salary saver.
Personal Plays – Jordan, Doncic, Barnes
Players to Consider – Brunson, J.J. Barea
Suns Breakdown
It’s going to be very difficult to not go right back to De’Anthony Melton after consecutive 30+ DK point efforts. He’s really one of the only guards healthy on the roster right now so he’s a safe bet for 30-35 minutes yet again and will be one of the chalkier options. I will not play Trevor Ariza after his DNP last game. Most believe he’s going to be traded as soon as he’s eligible on the 15th, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him out of the lineup again. Even if he starts, he’s a massive risk. T.J. Warren and Deandre Ayton are about the only other safe options from Phoenix. If they can keep the game within reach(debatable at best), they will see their minutes and have plenty of usage with Devin Booker still out of the lineup.
Personal Plays – Warren, Melton, Ayton
Players to Consider – Mikal Bridges, Josh Jackson
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