Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 15
While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story.
Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation.
Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.
Pass Funnel Defenses:
CAR (Pass: 29th, Run: 8th), PIT (Pass: 21st, Run: 7th), NO (Pass: 20th, Run: 3rd), HOU (Pass: 16th, Run: 2nd),
Run Funnel Defenses:
KC (Pass: 15th, Run: 32nd), NYJ (Pass: 11th, Run: 23rd), ARI (Pass: 10th, Run: 22nd), LARM (Pass: 6th, Run: 24th), CLE (Pass: 5th, Run: 26th),
Overall Inefficient Defenses:
ATL (32nd), OAK (31st), TB (30th), DET (29th), CIN (28th), CAR (27th)
Detroit ranks 29th in overall defensive efficiency
Buffalo will play host to the visiting Detroit Lions, in a game in which opened at a “pick’em”. Since opening, Buffalo has been bet out to a -2.5 favorite, and additionally, action has come in on the total, moving it up to 40, in some spots. We generally don’t think of the Bills as a lucrative team for DFS, but they may have some sneaky value this week, as they face the Lions who rank 29th in overall efficiency. Buffalo’s second half schedule of opposing defense looks much different than their first half, and they’ve proven this, as they’ve averaged 26.25 points per game over their last four. Now factor in that they will be hosting a Detroit team that will be Buffalo’s easiest defense to face all year.
I love Josh Allen this week, especially given his rushing floor. Since returning from injury, Allen has averaged 111.67 rushing yards, including two rushing touchdowns. I would expect Allen to have success on the ground, as well as through the air. Since the acquisition of Damon Harrison, Detroit’s defense vastly improved against the run, however they are extremely susceptible through the air, ranking 30th in defensive pass efficiency.
Dallas ranks 7th in overall defensive efficiency
So this may not be the best spot to tout the Colts offense, given Dallas’ defensive numbers, but hear me out. After another huge win against division rival, Philadelphia, Dallas will now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts. Dallas is coming off of monster wins against Atlanta, Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia. While they look like they could be a handful in the upcoming playoffs, I’d make the case that this is the prime let down spot for Dallas. While they haven’t mathematically clinched a playoff spot yet, it’s very unlikely for them to miss the playoffs this season. Add in the fact that Carson Wentz may be done for the year, Washington lost their starting quarterback, and New York, well they stink, and you have to ask, what is Dallas playing for? Obviously they are looking to gain the best seed possible, but I find it hard to believe that players will be up for a road game against Indy. It will be important to monitor the Dallas injuries, because if we see them beginning to rest some of their injured players, this could tip their hand as to how seriously they are taking this game. I don’t have much concrete or convincing analytics, but it would appear as is sharp money would agree. This game opened around 46.5 (even 45.5 at one book) at sharper books, and has since risen to 47.5.
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