NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday December 13 – All About The Studs!
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday’s NBA DFS slate was loaded with games, stars and value so ti was no surprise to see see winning GPP scores well past the 350 point mark and the cash line at 300+ as a result. Antony Davis was the lead dog on the night with a monster 76 fantasy point night (at only 14% ownership oddly enough) and was joined by Joel Embiid, John Wall and Kemba Walker as the four players to go for 60+ fantasy points on this mid-week slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Thursday’s Four Game NBA DFS Slate:
Before we jump into tonight’s slate, we once again have the pleasure of offering our Picks and Pivots readers another FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft where they have 10 tickets to Friday’s NBA DFS slate up for grabs. Get in early, spread the word and please show the folks at FantasyDraft some love – they have a fantastic product and it has been great seeing many readers moving more and more toward their platform.
Looking over this four game slate, what really jumps out to me is how you quickly you can eliminate half the slate if you really want to. We have two of the most infuriating/terrible teams in the NBA this season on the slate with the Bulls taking on the Magic and the Suns playing the Mavericks.
The Suns are loaded with value as a result of injuries and a condensed rotation and even more so with Trevor Ariza in roster purgatory as he awaits a trade but the issue here on the Suns and Mavericks side, is Phoenix just cannot keep games close and rostering anyone from this game comes with significant blowout risk.
The Bulls are a mess across the organization right now and what makes it even worse is that they are getting healthy which means you have a 8-9 man rotation that just caps the upside of any player you could even consider.
There is a reason these two games sit at Vegas totals that are 10+ points lower than the other two games on the slate and listen, I am all about taking the contrarian stand on small slates but I cannot recommend looking to either of these two games as core spots on this slate when you consider what you have to pass up in the other two games.
NBA DFS – A Clear Player Pool:
Let’s start at the top with LeBron James ($19.1K) and James Harden ($19.4K) going head to head here tonight as the two highest priced players on the slate in a game with a slate high 223 total. We have a national TV game and two of the biggest stars the league has to offer – these become showcase games and on a four game slate like this I would not even try to argue either/or, I think you lock in both studs and just watch them go at each other.
On FantasyDraft, locking in both LeBron and Harden leaves you $10.2K per player for the other 6 spots on your roster which is more than enough to fill a balanced build without having to dive into the bargain bin of even worse, roster any Suns.
With that context in mind – where can we go between the Rockets/Lakers and Clippers/Spurs to fill out around the stars.
Attack the Spurs/Rockets:
Over the last 10 games, the Spurs and Rockets rank 30th and 29th in the NBA in defensive rating and with two games that are expected to be competitive on tap, I think prioritizing the Lakers and Clippers is the best way to go about this slate.
The beauty of the Lakers right now is that with Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo still sidelined, this is a crazy tight rotation which includes LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart who are locked into 30-35 minutes a night for the Lake Show. The pricing on the Lakers starting unit is incredibly fair as you can lock in all four Lakers AND James Harden and still have $9.3K for the last three spots on your roster.
JaVale McGee becomes the fifth part of this rotation and although the minutes are certainly not the same as the other four – he did put up 35 fantasy points in this same match-up earlier this season in only 20 minutes on the back of 5 blocked shots.
The Clippers will once again be without Lou Williams tonight and we should get a better idea of their true rotations tonight as their blowout loss against Toronto last time out did not give us a real strong feel of how the minutes would look with their usage leader off the court.
Tobias Harris ($13.3K) put up 38 fantasy points against the Spurs in their first meeting and would be a solid cash game staple on this slate but the price is really exactly where it should be which limits the profit potential on him in tournaments. Instead I would pivot down to Montrezl Harrell ($11.8K) who put up 32 fantasy points against the Spurs in their only other meeting this season.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander ($9K) gets one of my favorite match-ups – point guards against the Spurs – and with Sweet Lou out, this 90’s R&B superstar should see all the run he can handle as the primary ball handler in this Clippers offense. We just saw the Suns De’Anthony Melton drop 38 fantasy points in this same match-up against San Antonio and no starting point guard has gone for less than 33 fantasy points against the Spurs in any of their last 7 match-ups.
The Clippers in general are fairly priced so you move to mid-tier plays like Danilo Gallinari ($12K) or Avery Bradley ($7.1K) who both give you ample minutes security and a safe floor. In the same price range as Bradley you can look to the Rockets PJ Tucker ($7.2K) who without James Ennis is going to be tasked with playing all the minutes he can handle as he shadows LeBron here tonight. Tucker played 36 minutes the fist time these teams faced and got 22 fantasy points which is perfectly fine as a 3x, last man in kind of play.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
I write this disclaimer every day – this is NOT a plug and play lineup and is meant to be illustrative ONLY. However – I keep seeing people playing this lineup in the Picks and Pivots Free Roll and in fact, I saw two of you use it last night so let me address that….guys, these are TOURNAMENT FREE ROLLS where only the top person gets a $25 Pick and Roll ticket – so playing a lineup I lay out for you here ….in my own free roll…..that other people are also using, means you will TIE. I am going to start putting THJ in these sample lineups every day even when hes not playing just so you guys are forced to think for yourselves – do better!
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G: James Harden
G: Josh Hart
G: Lonzo Ball
F/C: LeBron James
F/C: Javale McGee
F/C: Kyle Kuzma
UTIL: PJ Tucker
UTIL: Danilo Gallinari
Slate Overview: You can prop this up as a four game slate if you want but in my player pool, this is a two game slate with four teams to sort through and that is where my roster builds will start and end. The pricing structure tonight is “easy” enough to get both LeBron and Harden in without much of an issue and using the Lakers core is really one of the best paths to do that as their price points are incredibly reasonable for a starting unit that is being asked to play major minutes each night. Be smart with your bankroll on this slate – I do not see this as a slate to be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian – if guys from the Suns/Bulls beat you then you just tip your cap and move on but I will play the talent in the better game environments and act like those two late games do not exist tonight.
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