NBA FanDuel: Five Fades – Thursday, December 13th

Welcome to the latest edition of Five Fades for NBA FanDuel from FantasyCPR.com! Instead of the usual “who should I target” column you are used to seeing here, this article will take the opposite approach, and suggest players that you should NOT PLAY instead. Whether it be a bad match-up, or bad chalk, I am here to try to figure it out for you.

It becomes very tough to write NBA FanDuel DFS columns with the way the news is, and the fact that we like to be a first look website. We try to give you the best analysis possible, as early as we can, and this article will do it’s best to ELIMINATE players from your pool.

Yesterday was the debut of Five Fades for FanDuel, and since I am a fan of transparency and sharing the results, I think what we will do here on the daily is recap what happened on the last slate. Before we get to the results from yesterday, let’s briefly touch on what we are working with tonight.

It’s Thursday, so as always, it is a small slate day. We have four games on tap, and we get an extra hour to tinker with our lineups with a 8:00 PM ET start time. The slate kicks off with the game of the night in my opinion, as the Lakers roll into Houston to face the Rockets. It is The Beard vs. The King in this one, and this game should be a favorite target of many tonight.

Could the ownership in this game be too high to look elsewhere? Of course! But there may not be much else to work with here tonight. My goal will be to let you know where to pivot if possible. So click the slide below to proceed, and let’s find out how I did yesterday,

NBA FanDuel Five Fades: Results for 12/12/18:

Results will show last night’s total FDP (FanDuel Points) for each fade and pivot. Following their name and final tally, will be their ownership percentages in the large field $25K Fadeaway. Finally the last number in parenthesis followed by an X will be how many times that player exceeded their value.

As a general rule of thumb, you want as many guys you think can hit 6-7x value every night for tournament play. For cash games, you can usually get by trying to find 4-5x value games while keeping it balanced. Roster construction is VERY important on FanDuel, and I think this article will put some extra emphasis on that.

Fades:

PG – Damian Lillard – 28.9 FDP – (6%) – (3x)

SG – Brad Beal – 30.4 FDP – (4.5%) – (3.5x)

SF – Kevin Durant – 40.9 FDP – (9%) – (4x)

PF – John Collins – 39.9 FDP – (4.5%) – (5x)

C – Joel Embiid – 62.4 FDP  – (31% GPP) – (5.8x)

Pivots:

PG – Ben Simmons – 57.1 FDP – (19%) – (6.2x)

SG – D’Angelo Russell – 19.5 FDP – (13%) – (2.7x)

SF – Paul George – 50.7 FDP – (39%) – (5.6x)

PF – Draymond Green – 29.5 FDP – (11%) – (4.4x)

C – Andre Drummond – 47.6 FDP – (8%) – (5x)

All in all, it wasn’t a terrible debut. There were some misses of course, but some solid fades as well. I got pretty nervous on Durant for a second there when it was announced Leonard would miss another game, but he still wasn’t great going for just 4x, and barely surpassing 40 FDP.

The biggest miss here of course was Embiid, who was the most popular player on the slate, and didn’t disappoint with 62.4 FDP for over 5x value. The pivot in Drummond wasn’t terrible at 47.6 FDP, but a 15 FDP difference is quite a bit.

I am excited to dig into today’s fades and pivots, so without further ado, let’s do it!

NBA FanDuel Five Fades: Point Guard – 12/13/18

Chris Paul – Houston Rockets – $8,200

This is actually a really tough fade on this slate if you want to attack it in a balanced fashion. But if you are playing tournament play only and want to be different, you will need to mix it up here. Paul is relatively cheap at this price, but is still very capable of coming up short of value here. As you will see when scrolling through the position today, there isn’t much to be excited about. After Paul is Lonzo Ball at $7300 and that is so clearly a fade, it would have been an injustice for you for me to write him up.

Pivot Play(s): 

There are a few point guards I like today, and while CP3 is clearly alone at the top, I think that makes him a perfect fade. His ownership will likely be through the roof here, as the price is a bit low for a player coming off of a triple-double and a 50+ FDP game. I am going to choose to pay up elsewhere today, because this value at the very bottom could be very solid.

There are a couple of interesting plays in the mid $5K I will touch on quick as they are worth the mention, but there is even better value at minimum price. Mavericks point guard Jalen Brunson finally got a deserving salary bump up to $5,500, but he could lose his starting job if Dennis Smith Jr. returns to action. No official word on that one yet, but if DSJ misses another game, this is still a fair price for Brunson.

In the same price range at $5,400, we see Kris Dunn who will be playing his second game since returning. He will still be coming off of the bench, and will still likely see a strict minutes limit, so while intriguingly cheap, I am going to pass here.

Jawun Evans – Phoenix Suns $3,500 – Bryn Forbes – San Antonio Spurs $3,500

We have two viable minimum price punts at this position tonight, and rostering one if not both of these guys looks almost like a given. Evans made his Suns debut backing up new starting point guard De’Anthony Melton on Tuesday night, and played 26 minutes. He really didn’t do much as he barely reached 15 FDP, but if he gets a couple more shots to fall, he easily hits value.

Forbes is not as easy to predict. He does start for the Spurs and is usually locked into 25-30 minutes per night, but he doesn’t offer much offensively. Well usually anyways. Forbes may actually be kind of popular tonight considering what he did on Tuesday night against Phoenix. He put up a season-high 24 points, and was able to pull down 11 rebounds and total 42.7 FDP. He will have a very hard time crushing value like that again as he will face Patrick Beverley on the other side, but he should easily get us 4-5X value here.

NBA FanDuel Five Fades: Shooting Guard – 12/13/18

DeMar DeRozan – San Antonio Spurs – $9,600

DeRozan is in a great spot tonight, and is the type of player than can break the slate on any night. Last time the Spurs faced the Clippers was one of those nights. It was almost a month ago, but he amassed 59.7 FDP with a 34-6-5 stat line while adding three steals. However, the consistency just isn’t there. He does have eight 50+ FDP games in 28 played so far which is pretty solid, but at this price on a short slate, I don’t think he is worth it tonight.

Pivot Play(s):

The obvious pivot here is just to go up to James Harden at $11,500, and with two shooting guard spots on FanDuel, my take today is that it would be wise to use one on Harden. He has had his struggles as well, but even though the Rockets are playing slower this year, I still trust The Beard over DeRozan. The value will be there today, so I will be starting my lineups with Harden and James.

To save a little, another pivot I like off of DeRozan is all the way down in value range with Josh Hart at $4,500. Hart is starting for the Lakers in the absence of Brandon Ingram, who is expected to miss at least one more game. He could end up finishing with anywhere from 13 to 40 FDP as he has proven in his three games with extra run, but his minutes should be locked in the mid 30’s tonight, making anything possible. His all around game is good for this match-up with the Rockets, and I think he hits 4-5X value as well.

NBA FanDuel Five Fades: Small Forward – 12/13/18

Rudy Gay – San Antonio Spurs – $6,400

Let’s just be honest this is just a terrible position today. There isn’t much for value here quite yet until we get some news, so let’s take the easy route on this one. We know we are playing LeBron here on this slate, but we still need one more small forward. Gay has been pretty solid carving out his role as the third option for the Spurs, but I just don’t think I can pay this much for a guy with 35 FDP ceiling. In the last meeting between these teams, Gay did manage 29.2 FDP in just 24 minutes. At this price though, I think I would rather go with TJ Warren.

Pivot Play: 

Again, we start with the King if you can call that a pivot, and while I wait all day for some value to open here, Warren will be holding this spot down. After missing a few games, Warren was eased back into action playing just 12 minutes on Monday. He followed that by playing 24 against the Spurs the following day, and posting 32.2 FDP. There should be no restrictions here, and Devin Booker is already ruled out for today. That should make Warren the top scoring threat for the Suns tonight, and for that reason, he seems a bit too cheap for today at $6,400

NBA FanDuel Five Fades: Power Forward – 12/13/18

Tobias Harris – Los Angeles Clippers – $8,000

This easily looks like the position to fade at the top today, as this pick of a Harris fade could easily be LaMarcus Aldridge for $400 more or even Aaron Gordon at the same price of $8K. I really have zero interest in any of them, but if I was choosing one to pivot to it would be Gordon. He should be solid today against the Bulls, but I think the price on all three of these top guys is just too much. This looks like another pay down position at, but the options are still kind of muddled at this point

Pivot Play: 

I want to go cheap here, but we may need some news to pull it off. My first option looks like Richaun Holmes at $4,800, but even this price is a bit too high from a complete wildcard pick. When he sees some extra minutes, he usually turns in a decent game. My hope here is that Holmes can get over 20 minutes, and get me 30 FDP. He has played over 20 minutes in a game just four times with the Suns, and has eclipsed that mark twice. Holmes is just two games removed from his 40.4 FDP outburst, and he could be solid here against the Mavs if he gets some run tonight,

NBA FanDuel Five Fades: Center – 12/13/18

DeAndre Jordan – Dallas Mavericks – $7,200

Jordan may get some attention today with the match-up with the Suns, but the fact that the Mavs are on a back-to-back and Jordan hasn’t been doing much really make this a hard pass for me. In fact, even with paying up for The Beard and The King, I still can make the guys at the top of the Center position work in my lineup, and that is my goal.

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Jordan played 33 minutes last night against the Hawks. The fact that this was the Hawks who are equally bad as the Suns, and Jordan was quiet, is further means for a fade here. More of a rebounder than a scorer, Jordan posted 11 points and 11 rebounds, and only posted 25.2 FDP. If he was around $6500 we would have to consider, but over $7K for Jordan right now makes zero sense.

Pivot Play:

The pivot play here is almost anybody but Jordan, but Rockets center Clint Capela could have easily been the fade. His price is up to $9,100, and even though the match-up is solid with the Lakers, that price is absurd! He has been having a solid season averaging close to 40 FDP per game, but in the last three games he has failed to break even 30 FDP. Now that the Rockets are full strength, Capela’s role has certainly decreased.

For my money here, I will be paying up for Nikola Vucevic. The match-up might be the best of the three guys mentioned here, as the Magic tangle with the new look Bulls, who are trying to piece things together after firing their coach and getting some healthy players back. For $8,800, we need Vucevic to generate 45-50 FDP, and this spot against Chicago is the one to play him in.

Thank you for giving this a read today, and be sure to stick around and check out all of our DFS articles from our talented writing staff here at FantasyCPR. I hope you enjoy the new format, as I think it will be a fun change of pace from the old targets format. Now that you know who not to play, and maybe who to pivot to, I wish you the best of the luck and skill on your DFS ventures this evening!