NFL DFS Game By Game Breakdown, Week 15

We’re back in action for the NFL again this week with an 11 game NFL DFS slate that lacks some of the options we lean on the most so it’s going to be a fun week!

This slate is a lot different from last week since we had a plethora of very cheap running backs to pick from. That doesn’t mean we can’t find a bunch of great NFL DFS plays to put together a winning lineup and that’s what we’re here to do so let’s jump in!

NFL DFS – Packers at Bears

Bears Breakdown 

Mitchell Trubisky looked awful in his return to the lineup this past week but the return of Aqib Talib changes the Rams defense. In addition, we’ve all known that Trubisky has had shortcomings all year. The good sign is he still rushed the ball six times so the shoulder must be fine. The bad news is he’s in a no-man’s land as far as pricing goes, with quarterbacks below and above him that are more attractive.

I want to be off the running game totally as Tarik Cohen has been at 51 percent or under in snaps for the last four games and $6,300. That’s too expensive for the potential downside, regardless of the significant upside. What does catch my eye is Jordan  Howard. It’s been a fall from grace for him but he did have 20 touches last week and exceeded 100 yards. Even at the depressed price, Howard hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 9 and only has four total red zone touches in the last four weeks.

The passing options are a hard pass because you don’t know who it’s going to be on any given week. Anthony Miller has 10 total over the past four games and Taylor Gabriel has turned 31 total targets into nothing more than 13.9 DK points in that same time frame. Allen Robinson has not been the alpha that many predicted and can’t be trusted for anything other than GPP. Aaron Rodgers might be on the other side but the Bears defense is still very much in play.

Cash Plays – None, Bears D/ST and Howard are close to it

GPP Plays – Trubisky, Cohen, your choice of pass catcher

Packers Breakdown 

After seeing what the Bears just did to the Rams, I’m not all that interested here. Davante Adams stands out as the best option on the Packers because he’s under $8,000 and has yet to be under 16.0 DK points in any given game. Given what the Bears did in a prime time spot, most will be off Adams so he’s a spectacular GPP option. He could move into the slot and take advantage of the weakness after the Bears lost their slot corner. It wouldn’t be the first time either as Adams has run almost 19 percent from the slot.

I can’t do it with Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones. Rodgers looked much better in his first game without Mike McCarthy but the Bears defense is on a roll and the Packers offense has its flaws outside of the coaching element. It also doesn’t help that Jones was not touching the ball in the first half of this past week’s game. Sure, he got there at the end and was productive but I don’t know why coaches in Green Bay want to make Jamaal Williams a thing. He’s an inferior player and Jones should get the volume. It’s just a terrible matchup against a defense that has given up five touchdowns to backs all season long(two of which to LeGarrette Blount).

Cash Plays – Adams

GPP Plays – Rodgers, Jones, Packers D/ST

NFL DFS – Lions at Bills

Bills Breakdown 

What if I told you a quarterback was coming off of three consecutive weeks of 24, 33 and 26 DK points? You would assume he would be well over $6,000, right? Well,  Josh Allen may not be doing it in the most conventional way but all that matters is the fantasy production and it’s been there in spades. He’s in play in all formats yet again because DK has refused to price him up to where he should be. In truth, Allen has been what everyone thought Lamar Jackson would have been when he took the reins in Baltimore.

The running backs are banged with LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory injured but regardless of who plays, I’m not entirely sure I want to use them. Allen is stealing a significant chunk of the red zone work and already has more rushing yards than McCoy. Also, Allen is already just four red zone rushes off the team lead despite having missed time himself.

Isaiah McKenzie is a little interesting. He’s taken over the slot role as the great Evan Silva pointed out on Twitter and the Buffalo offense is trying to get the ball in his hands often with four rushing attempts last week. Part of that could have been due to McCoy and Ivory leaving the game but it’s still a player they’re manufacturing touches for. When that starts happening, it’s best to take notice. Say Jones got the targets I was hoping for last week and just couldn’t so anything with them. I love the defense for the Bills as the Lions offense is in total disarray.

Cash Plays – Allen, Bills D/ST

GPP Plays – Potentially a running back depending on injuries, McKenzie, Jones

Lions Breakdown 

Detroit’s offense has bottomed out, ranking 25th in points per game and not even averaging 21 points every time out. Between injuries, trades and poor performances, the offensive unit led by Matthew Stafford doesn’t have much redeeming value. I would be surprised if Kenny Golladay got anything done against Tre’Davious White, who has had great success against better receivers in better offenses. If Kerryon Johnson came back, he’s a nice mid-range play at running back just because he would touch the ball close to 20 times. The Bills are ninth in rushing yards against per game but backs have hit pay dirt 13 times on the ground this year. I would be shocked to see Johnson back for this one and I wouldn’t want to guess which one of Blount or Zach Zenner get the carries and touchdowns this week.

Cash Plays – Lions D/ST

GPP Plays – Zenner, Blount

NFL DFS – Buccaneers at Ravens

Ravens Breakdown 

The Ravens are likely going to have a gameplan that includes both Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco and they will be involved to an extent that we can use neither. If Joe Flacco is active, I think that takes both he and Lamar Jackson off the table. While Jackson has been totally fine for fantasy, Josh Allen has been a better version and is $100 cheaper. Flacco would be tempting if he starts, but the risk is he’d lose red zone chances to trick plays with Jackson. The situation is one of the worst scenarios you can have in fantasy because there is no way to gauge how things go in the middle of the game.

The backfield has turned into a three-headed monster but I’m intrigued by Kenneth Dixon. The Ravens have held onto him through injuries and suspensions and he’s looked good in his limited opportunities. John Harbaugh also says his role will continue to grow. We saw this same situation in Los Angeles with Justin Jackson so there is downside, but it’s important not to let another team burn us out of a potential great play at $3,500. It’s not like the Ravens have been shy about employing a lot of running backs so far this year.  If Flacco plays, I’d be willing to take a shot on John Brown. He was an excellent downfield threat earlier in the season and has a great matchup in this game. If it remains just Lamar Jackson, I will likely look elsewhere in that range.

Cash Plays – None, a quarterback if the other is inactive

GPP Plays – Ravens D/ST, Dixon, Gus Edwards, potentially Brown but he needs Flacco

Buccaneers Breakdown 

I’m completely off the Bucs offense here. They’ve provided plenty of fantasy goodness but they are  on the road, in what should be cold weather and against what is arguably the best defense in the NFL. This unit just walked into Arrowhead and held Patrick Mahomes in check. If the guy didn’t have a robotic bazooka arm, the Chiefs well could have lost that game and scored very few points. Jameis Winston isn’t that player and he doesn’t have the same style weapons on offense. You can always argue for any play in a tournament but this really doesn’t seem like the spot to attack.

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Winston, any of Mike Evans, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin

NFL DFS – Cardinals at Falcons

Falcons Breakdown 

The Cardinals defense has given up 18 touchdowns to the running back position and I think I might be more inclined to play Ito Smith ahead of Tevin Coleman. Smith has gotten more touches in two straight games and I think Coleman is out the door this upcoming offseason. They need to see what Smith is capable of and he’s still got three more red zone carries than Coleman(though Coleman leads overall including targets). Smith is also cheaper but I wouldn’t consider either back in cash games this week.

Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are both GPP targets because the Cards have been tough on quarterbacks, giving up the fourth fewest passing yards and only 17 passing touchdowns. Part of that is the presence of Patrick Peterson who will see plenty of Julio. I’m excited to watch that matchup but Jones isn’t priced at an auto play level given the tough cover he faces. Being in Atlanta should help a little bit but it’s a coin flip if Peterson can cover Julio the whole game or not. Austin Hooper is battling an injury and really isn’t on my radar that much considering the Cardinals have only given up three touchdowns to the position. Hooper isn’t a player who will rack up a ton of catches, it’s touchdown or bust. Given the issues facing the Arizona offense, the Falcons defense is well within play.

Cash Plays – Falcons D/ST

GPP Plays – Choice of running back, Ryan, Jones

Cardinals Breakdown 

The only player here that I’m interested in is David Johnson because the Falcons defense is set up to allow completions to running backs. They’ve given up an even 100 on the season and only four other teams are over the 80 reception plateau. It’s very unlikely that Johnson would have another eight catch game for only 12 yards like last week so if he sees that amount of receptions, a big game is likely. Johnson is carrying the questionable tag but it doesn’t seem serious right now. The rest of the passing game is completely unplayable with Josh Rosen averaging under 175 passing yards per game.

Cash Plays – David Johnson

GPP Plays – Larry Fitzgerald, Chase Edmunds if Johnson happens to be out

NFL DFS – Raiders at Bengals

Bengals Breakdown 

Offensive deficiencies duly noted, this is a really solid spot to use Joe Mixon. Oakland is the second worst run defense in the league and has added on over 460 yards on 44 receptions, another area that Mixon excels at. The Bengals saw a competitive game last week and Mixon eclipsed 30 touches. He’s simply priced too cheaply for his potential this week.

John Ross continues to do nothing but score touchdowns and you have to believe he breaks a big play with his speed sooner or later. I’m not really interested in Boyd just because there’s so many other options that are similarly priced around him and he’s not in a good offense. C.J. Uzomah gets one of the best matchups possible since the Raiders have given up the third most yards to tight ends and are tied for the most touchdowns but you can’t trust him to hit more than 8-10 DK points. His targets are on a three week decline but he’s still a cash game option. Jeff Driskel is a GPP only play since the Raiders simply cannot pressure the opposing quarterback. His line would have looked vastly different had he hit the end zone for a rushing score instead of being ruled down at the half yard line.

Cash Plays – Uzomah, Mixon

GPP Plays – Driskel, Ross, Boyd

Raiders Breakdown 

Derek Carr is going to tempt me all week long after two solid games in a row but I doubt I go there in a crowded quarterback position. The last time I tried, the Raiders couldn’t score against the lowly 49ers and A.J. McCarron played the whole fourth quarter. If you have the guts, you have to stack him with Jared Cook. Not only is he the team leader in targets but the Bengals are close to the Raiders in their inability to defend the tight end position.

Doug Martin has received double-digit carries every game since Week 8 and there’s no reason that should stop against the worst run defense in the NFL. If I had faith in any one Raider, it’s probably Martin. That would especially hold true if Jalen Richard ended up not playing this week with a rib injury, though he is expected to at this juncture. I can’t believe that Martin might be one of the best salary plays on the board this week, but that’s life in Week 15. I can’t get on board with any receiver at this juncture.

Cash Plays – Martin, Cook

GPP Plays – Carr, a receiver of your choice

NFL DFS – Titans at Giants

Giants Breakdown

Saquon Barkley is the highest priced player on the board this week and he’s in a really tough spot but I think he’s still viable. I hate to say he’s not a cash play because of the insane amount of touches he gets and he’s a threat for a 70 yard touchdown every touch, like we saw the last week. Barkley is on of the best fantasy options every single week no matter the defense he faces. Odell Beckham is on the mend with a limited Wednesday practice and what will make him feel better is seeing Malcolm Butler in coverage on the other side. Butler has been egregious all season long, surrendering the most touchdowns of any corner in the league. Beckham will eat his lunch if he’s fully healthy. We’ll have to wait and see but if Beckham misses again, Sterling Shepard vaults into consideration in all formats as the number one receiver.

Cash Plays – Beckham, Shepard if he sits

GPP Options – Barkley(close to cash), Giants D/ST

Titans Breakdown 

Contrary to the picture above, Henry wasn’t struggling to do anything last time we saw him when he rolled up over 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns. I’ll probably have some Henry in GPP and that’s about it, because he’s been so irrelevant all season. The Giants have been bleeding yards and points to running backs and Henry has to be feeling good coming off the best game of his career so it’s worth a shot to see if he can repeat this week. The Gants have only given up nine touchdowns to receivers all season and about 153 yards per game, both of which are among the top 10 in the league. They’re right about 31 PPR points per game to receivers overall so despite Corey Davis receiving about 26 percent of the target share, I’m not that interested. Three of his last four games have been four targets or fewer, which I can’t really explain. This just doesn’t seem like the spot where he gets right. If I don’t love Davis, it’s hard to love Marcus Mariota. Anthony Firkser is going to pop up as a cheap tight end since he’s basically the only healthy one on the roster. To his credit, he does have at least three receptions in each of his last three games.

Cash Plays – Firkser as a punt

GPP Plays – Mariota, Davis, Henry

NFL DFS – Dolphins at Vikings

Vikings Breakdown 

The Vikings offense is looking for a bounce back after some major letdowns recently. The pace for Adam Thielen has really slowed down over the past month, with only one game over 15 DK points. Both he and Stefon Diggs are over 25 percent of the target share on the season but I think I’d rather save the money and play Diggs this week, especially if Xavien Howard is out again.

Dalvin Cook might be a cash game staple for me and is at a really solid price against a run defense that ranks tied for third for most yards given up. The best part is Cook has been heavily involved in the passing game as well  with at least three receptions in every game since returning from injury. That helps the floor for a running back so much on any given week. If Kirk Cousins was a little cheaper, I would be all over him. He’s just had a bizarre season of ups and downs and I’m not willing to pay the price for him this week. I might sprinkle in some Vikings D/ST this week as well since they’re at home.

Cash Plays – Diggs, Thielen, Cook

GPP Plays – Cousins, Vikings D/ST, Kyle Rudolph

Dolphins Breakdown 

I will have absolutely no Dolphins on the road against a much tougher defense than they faced the last week. I can’t trust Ryan Tannehill against a pass rush that has sacked the quarterback 38 times, eighth in the league. I can’t trust Kenyan Drake to break a fluky 50 yard touchdown every week when he’s not allowed to touch the football more than nine times in the last three games. Chasing Kenny Stills and his big game seems questionable at best, considering the season he’s had so far. The slate just doesn’t give me a reason to play Miami players in anything other than deep GPP.

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – Drake, Stills, Tannehill

NFL DFS – Redskins at Jaguars

Jaguars Breakdown 

The Jaguars offense basically hit rock bottom last week but this is a decent spot for Leonard Fournette to get on track. He got 17 touches even in a game that they got crushed in and this game should be relatively competitive. The Redskins are giving up over 110 yards on the ground every game and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jaguars offense grind down the Washington defense. In the games that went a little bit better for the Jaguars since Fournette has been back, he was tracking for near 30 touches in all of them. The passing game is ranked 24th in yards and has no clear-cut receiver to go after, so I’m going to parson Cody Kessler and the bunch.

Cash Plays – Fournette, Jaguars D/ST

GPP Plays – Dede Westbrook, Donte Moncrief

Redskins Breakdown 

I can’t go anywhere with the Redskins offense in their current form. Josh Johnson hadn’t thrown a pass in the NFL since 2011 before this past Sunday and now has to go on the road to Jacksonville. Granted, they’re just playing for pride at this point but it would be quite the embarrassment to lose to Johnson at home. It hasn’t been a great season for the Jaguars but this would be rock bottom. The running game for Washington has become totally stagnant and the offensive line is a train wreck. It’s best to run away from this offense.

Cash Plays – None

GPP Plays – None

NFL DFS – Cowboys at Colts

Colts Breakdown 

The Dallas defense is for real but the Colts passing game is still going to find their way to points. Eric Ebron might finally be at the price point and matchup where he doesn’t feel like a must play after the Cowboys held Zach Ertz down. The flip side of that is Dallas Goedert should have torn them up but had a long touchdown taken away on a phantom penalty. T.Y Hilton has seen double-digit targets for three straight games and even though Byron Jones is a great corner, Hilton is a really good receiver who can get behind him. It is interesting to note that Jones runs around a 4.3 second 40-yard dash, so he can run with Hilton. Andrew Luck is expensive and best served as a GPP play, but the ceiling is 300 and three touchdowns, as it seemingly always is. Dallas is giving up under 90 yards per game rushing, so Marlon Mack is not someone who I’ll be playing this weekend.

Cash Plays – Ebron

GPP Plays – Luck, Hilton

Cowboys Breakdown

The Cowboys have a new set of triplets but only two are firmly on my radar. Amari Cooper is the man of the hour in my book but he draws a tougher matchup than people think(only four teams give up fewer PPR points) and has vaulted up to eighth in pricing. While that’s fair given his performance, Cooper is a volume based GPP target for me since he owns 25 percent of the targets in a Cowboys uniform. Since Cooper has gotten to Dallas, Dak Prescott has been a little up and down but the floor is right about 15 DK points. The ceiling has been 25-30 and I think we get closer to that this week. Prescott is far too cheap for this matchup. Ezekiel Elliott is one of the best backs in football and is as safe as they come. With Dallas, it’s usually best to not get cute and lay these three and nobody else unless you want to take a shot at Michael Gallup. Prescott missed him twice last week on potential long touchdown throws.

Cash Plays – Elliott, Dak

GPP Targets – Cooper, Gallup

NFL DFS – Seahawks at 49ers

49ers Breakdown 

As we sit here now, Matt Breida might be back in the lineup which would only serve to muddy the waters at the position. Jeff Wilson has been productive in his stead so I would expect some type of annoying running back committee for the 49ers this week against a defense that has given up 113.7 yards per game, about mid-pack. That’s likely not the best thing to get caught up in. The passing game is more attractive as George Kittle is coming off what should have been the best receiving game by yardage ever by a tight end. I’m still baffled how the 49ers couldn’t get this man a six yard catch in the second half last week.

More from FanSided

• USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
• NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
• Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
• MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
• Caesars, BetMGM and PointsBet Promo Codes Give $1,850 Bonus for ANY World Cup or MLB Game!

Regardless, Kittle is actually second in the NFL in yards after the catch, trailing only Christian McCaffrey of the Panthers. Given the amount of targets he sees, you can’t go wrong with Kittle. Dante Pettis is also firmly on the radar with three straight games of seven targets, at least 49 yards and at least a touchdown in every game. His price refuses to move yet either so he’s a great play.

Cash Options – Kittle, Pettis

GPP Options – Maybe a running back depending on how the situation shakes out

Seahawks Breakdown 

Russell Wilson scorched the 49ers just weeks ago but I don’t think I can pay for him as the highest priced quarterback on the slate. His touchdown percentage is still at 8.4 percent which is wildly above his career average. Tyler Lockett is finally priced out of my comfort zone as well. Anything over $6,000 for a deep threat for an offense that ranks dead last in pass attempts is a pass for me. If Doug Baldwin is out again, David Moore isn’t the worst option even though he had a goose egg this past week.

The 49ers defense isn’t the Vikings. Chris Carson might go a little overlooked but he shouldn’t. The volume continues to be there and while he needs a touchdown to make you really happy, the price is nice at just $5,600 for what should be near 18 touches with potential for more.

Cash Plays – Carson

GPP Plays – Wilson, one of the receivers to pair with him, Seahawks D/ST

NFL DFS – Patriots at Steelers

Steelers Breakdown 

I would be surprised if James Conner suited up this week but Jaylen Samuels is priced to the point of discomfort in my view. Yes, the Steelers are likely to pass a whole lot in this game for a variety of reasons but Samuels is over $5,000. He’s still a fair play on DK where its full point PPR but there is certainly a significant floor as well. I’m not sure how I’ll get it accomplished yet but I want a Ben Roethlisberger stack with both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. I think they both could have a monster game and should see over 10 targets a piece. If I could only play one, I would play Smith-Schuster as the Patriots will likely use Stephon Gilmore and a lot of bracket coverage for Brown, leaving it up to Smith-Schuster to get the job done. Vance McDonald tempts me but he’s also let me down more often than not.

Cash Plays – Roethlisberger, JuJu, Brown

GPP Plays – Samuels, McDonald

Patriots Breakdown 

I’ve been off him literally almost every single week since Week 1, but it could be a Rob Gronkowski week. Sometimes it’s best to shut up and let someone else do the talking for you.

I’ll be the first one to tell you that Gronk has always smashed the Steelers. It has not been fun, to say the least. He and Tom Brady own rent free space in the heads of the Steelers and that stack looks amazing this week. This really seems like a spot that the Patriots will try to frustrate the Pittsburgh pass rush by using Julian Edelman and maybe even James White on short routes to keep Brady upright. It’s far from the first time that would have happened and Edelman is coming off a game of 12 targets. Hopefully, the Steelers have learned their lesson about covering a player like that with a linebacker.

Cash Plays – Brady, Gronkowski, Edelman

GPP Plays – White, Josh Gordon, Sony Michel for goal line and potential garbage time touchdowns

Stay tuned to Fanasy CPR for all of our DFS content. We have everything covered no matter what your poison!