Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Plays 12/14 – The Salary Value Edition

Hey Guys! You are checking out the very first article of “Top Plays – Salary Value Edition” Edition! I usually stick to my lock plays article for the NBA but with the NBA DraftKings Slate, I want to be able to dig deeper and have more research done for you guys. Just covering one player from each position doesn’t do justice as some slates are larger than others. Lets get it rolling with the new article! Hope you guys enjoy! Good luck and cash out! 

NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown

So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James, Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value. For example, last night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.

Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season. Like @ThunderDanDFS stated to us today, the NBA schedule has been 8-4-12-2-10 games for the week. We’re going to be looking at a showdown slate for just two games due to the NBA not knowing what a proper, nice schedule looks like.

Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 9 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out! Also don’t forget to participate in the Free Roll on FantasyDraft which FantasyCPR host daily!

NBA Draftkings – Top Value Point Guards

Top Tier

Damian Lillard vs. Toronto Raptors

Salary: $8,500 – Needs to score 42.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Now Damian Lillard isn’t at the top of the salary board at the point guard position and that isn’t a bad thing. Lillard and Portland get to host the red-hot Raptors which will make it a tough match-up on both sides. Lillard has a usage rate of 30% and is averaging 27 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assist per game while averaging 35 minutes. Now he has only hit value or exceeded it three out of the five past games, scoring 59, 46.75, 49.5, 40. and 29.75 fantasy points. While he does have a tough match up with the Raptors, he also has a nice history against them. He averages 26 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assist in 11 games. Lillard hasn’t faced the Raptors since February of the 2017-2018 season but he dropped 32 points, 10 assist, and 3 rebounds versus them. Can Lillard repeat that performance? Probably but the Toronto Raptors are allowing point guards to average 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assist this season.

Mid Tier

Eric Bledsoe vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Salary: $7,600 – Needs to score 38 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Coming in at a slightly lower salary, Eric Bledsoe gets to go up against the Cleveland Cavaliers who are struggling this season due to injuries and poor coaching. Bledsoe may not even be priced correctly and could be considered a top play tonight. He has exceeded his value in back to back games, one being against Cleveland but at home. In their first match-up against the Cavaliers, Bledsoe dropped 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assist. On the season, he’s averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assist with a usage rate of 21%. In 12 games against Cleveland, Bledsoe has averaged 15 points, 5 assist, and 5 rebounds. On the defensive side of things, Cleveland is allowing point guards to average 25 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assist. This gives Eric Bledsore a rise in his stock as he could once again exceed his value which he did four nights ago against Cleveland.

Risk Play

Dennis Schroder vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $5,600 – Needs to score 28 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Now for what could be considered a risk play, Dennis Schroder comes in tonight facing the Denver Nuggets. Schroder has exceeded in the bench role behind Russell Westbrook, averaging 17 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assist per game. The positive sign besides his scoring, Schroder is seeing almost 30 minutes on the floor behind Westbrook. With a price tag of $5,600, it is hard to pass him up if you are paying up else where. He has hit his value in the past three games with 29.75, 40, and 33.75 fantasy points. The last time Shcroder faced Denver in November, his shot wasn’t falling but he did score 18 points with 2 assist and 2 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are a tough defensive team as they allow point guards, starting ones, to average 19 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assist. We won’t see Schroder hitting that stat line but he can easily return value or even exceed it against Denver and with a shot that actually falls tonight.

NBA Draftkings – Top Value Shooting Guards

Top Tier

C.J. McCollum vs. Toronto Raptors

Salary: $7,100 – Needs to score 35.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

I know we already have Damian Lillard as the top point guard but C.J. McCollum is also in play as the top shooting guard. The Toronto Raptors do defend the shooting guard position a little weaker as they allow them to average 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. That is slightly higher than McCollum’s season average of 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist per game. He is averaging 34 minutes per game with a usage rate of 26%, not too much lower than Damian Lillard. Now in his past five games, he has only returned or exceeded value twice. McCollum scored 32, 31.75, 38.25, 32.25, and 52.25 fantasy points in those five games. Like I mentioned with the point guard breakdown, this game should be a close game, making this a game that could turn into a shootout. That will give, both Lillard and McCollum, chances to take over the game and exceeded their value for the night.

Mid Tier

Khris Middleton vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Salary: $6,400 – Needs to score 32 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Once again, dropping in salary for the mid tier position, Khris Middleton is another one to target just like his teammate Eric Blesdoe. Middleton is having a usage rate of 24% this season while averaging 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. He’s also seeing 30 minutes on the floor. The downside is that he hasn’t returned value since late November against the Chicago Bulls where he scored only 32 fantasy points. When they last faced the Cavaliers four nights ago, Middleton scored 16 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assist, finishing the night with 28.75 fantasy points due to his three turnovers. Middleton doesn’t have the best history against the Cavaliers either where he has averaged just 12 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assist against them in 18 games. The Milwaukee Bucks will most likely hold the pace of the game since Cleveland is barely averaging 100 possessions per game while the Bucks are averaging 107 possessions per game. The final note that I should highlight is that this game could get out of hand, causing Bledsoe and Middleton to find a spot on the bench.

Risk Play

Danny Green vs. Portland Trailblazers

Salary: $4,600 – Needs to score 23 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Now Danny Green is a player that has his ups and downs every single night. We never know when his shots will decide to fall but if they do, he can easily return and exceed his value. Out of his past five games, Green has only exceeded his value twice, scoring 17.25, 10, 28.25, 17.25, and 28 fantasy points. He is averaging 29 minutes per game with 9 points, 4 rebounds and a lonely assist per game. In the 23 games that he has faced the Trailblazers, he is averaging 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 1 assist also. Nothing to get excited about. Reason for him being a risk play is due to the fact that this game could be really close, making both teams depend on their star players more than others, taken more opportunities away from Green to go off. Portland is allowing shooting guards to average 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assist. So either way, Green is a risk play here but could easily exceed his value if his shot falls, plus give salary relief when building a line-up.

NBA Draftkings – Top Value Small Forwards

Top Tier

Kevin Durant vs. Sacramento Kings

Salary: $10,300 – Needs to score 51.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Kevin Durant is priced at a very expensive price tonight versus the Sacramento Kings and there is a good reason why. He has some ownership against them. First, lets jump into his stats so far just for this season. With a usage rate of 31%, he is averaging 29 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assist while playing around 36 minutes per game. The Golden State Warriors are at full health, besides DeMarcus Cousins, but they are having an odd season. They are losing games that they shouldn’t be. In their first meeting of this season, in November, Kevin Durant dropped 44 points, 13 rebounds, and 7 assist. Close to a triple double! But throughout his career against the Sacramento Kings, Durant is averaging 28 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist in 36 games. The plus side is the pace that the Kings play at, which is 107 possessions per game while the Warriors play at a pace of 104 possessions. With how quick of pace this game could be played at tonight, Durant has more opportunities to dominate and exceed his value greatly, making him the top play at the Small Forward position.

Mid Tier

Jayson Tatum vs. Atlanta Hawks

Salary: $6,300 – Needs to score 31.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

A significant drop in price from Kevin Durant comes Jayson Tatum. The Boston Celtics get to take on the Atlanta Hawks who play at the fastest pace with 109 possessions per game, a reason to target Jayson Tatum. They’ll have to play at their speed and possibly play catch up if they can’t keep up. Jayson Tatum is averaging just a 21% usage rate while averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assist per game, seeing 31 minutes per game. In his past five games, he has scored 35.75, 31.25, 25.75, 31.5, and 30.5 fantasy points, reaching or exceeding value in three of those games. He only played 21 minutes in the first meeting with the Atlanta Hawks, where they blew them out, and only put up 14 points, 2 assist and 2 rebounds. The Hawks are allowing Small Forwards to average 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist per game, giving some hope and upside to building a line-up with Tatum in it.

Risk Play

Juan Hernangomez vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Salary: $4,700 – Needs to score 23.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

It’s hard to figure out why Juan Hernangomez isn’t seeing a slightly large price increase when he is having a nice season so far. Hernangomez is averaging 27 minutes with 9 points, 6 rebounds on the season with a Denver team that is struggling with injuries. He had back to back doubles in his past five games where he was able to drop 15 points and 10 rebounds against Charlotte and then dropped 17 points and 10 rebounds against the Atlanta Hawks. He sees the minutes to return his value of 23.5 fantasy points, he just has to get the shots falling and the boards to come his way. He has played 35 or more minutes in the past four games also. All of the opportunities are there. In the last match-up against the Oklahoma City Thunder, he was able to produce 15 points and 8 rebounds, nearing another double double. Plus with the pace of the Oklahoma City Thunder, 107 possessions per game, Denver will have to keep up with the pace, shoving out more opportunities for their big men who may get tired, giving Juan Hernangomez more minutes.

NBA Draftkings – Top Value Power Forwards

Top Tier

Paul George vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $9,100 – Needs to score 45.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Coming in with one of the fastest paced teams and also a big night versus the New Orleans Pelicans, Paul George has another nice match-up versus the Denver Nuggets. With a usage rate of 28%, he is averaging 35 minutes with 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist. That’s impressive knowing that his teammate is Russell Westbrook who controls the court. In his past five games, he has scored 42, 77, 43.25, 48.75, and 53.25 fantasy points, exceeding his value three times. Also in his last match-up against the Denver Nuggets in November, he recorded a double double with 24 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist. Now besides the pace being a huge positive, the Denver Nuggets also allow power forwards to average 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assist. Allowing power forwards to average a double double just gives Paul George more upside tonight as a top play.

Mid Tier

Marcus Morris vs. Atlanta Hawks

Salary: $6,500 – Needs to score 32.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Marcus Morris has been dominating and exceeding his value easily these past few games! He comes in to play once again, going up against the Atlanta Hawks who also play at a fast pace which means the Boston Celtics will have to keep up with them. Morris is averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds this season. He is also averaging 27 minutes, giving him chances to do what he has been doing. In his past five games, he has scored 24.75, 18.75, 28.75, 43.5, and 41.75 fantasy points, steadily increasing. But just like his teammate Jayson Tatum, he also couldn’t get his shot to fall in the first meeting against the Atlanta Hawks. He only scored 8 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist but did play 24 minutes even though it was a blowout. The Hawks defend the power forward position poorly, allowing them to average 24 points, 13 rebounds and 4 assist, a nice positive sign for Marcus Morris tonight.

Risk Play

Marvin Williams vs. New York Knicks

Salary: $4,900 – Needs to score 24.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Marvin Williams may not be “that guy” but he is someone to keep eyeing. In his last five games, he has scored 36.25, 8.25, 34, 24.25, and 28.5 fantasy points where in only one game he did not reach his value. Also on the season, he stats aren’t the prettiest because he’s only averaging 8 points, 5 rebounds, and 1 sad assist. But he does see the floor a good amount where he is averaging 26 minutes per game. But the reason why you could or should roster him, besides his salary tag, he gets to face the New York Knicks who defend the position poorly.  The Knicks are allowing power forwards to average 24 points, 11 rebounds and just 4 assist and while that is to the starters, Mavin Williams will still get his chance. If his shot falls and is falling early, expect him to easily exceed his small value of 24.5 fantasy points.

NBA Draftkings – Top Value Center

Top Tier

Joel Embiid vs. Indiana Pacers

Salary: $10,600 – Needs to score 53 fantasy points or more to exceed value

You would think when you see Joel Embiid on any slate, he would be the go to guy to roster. But there are still times where you know you shouldn’t. Tonight isn’t one of those nights. Joel Embiid gets to face Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers. In a match-up of Embiid versus Turner, Embiid is averaging 23 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assist. Once again, another double double stat. Also versus the Indiana Pacers in five games, Embiid is averaging the same exact line. It’s hard to pass up a match-up when a double double is in play. After the joining of Jimmy Butler, Embiid still has a usage rate of 31% while averaging 26 points, 13 rebounds, and 4 assist. But besides his last game where he scored 66.75 fantasy points, he just hasn’t been returning value. With this match-up, I believe all of that will change and Joel Embiid will have back to back games of exceeding value, especially if Jimmy Butler is ruled out once again.

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Mid Tier

Willie Cauley-Stein vs. Golden State Warriors

Salary: $6,400 – Needs to score 32 fantasy points or more to exceed value

It’s hard to find a match-up that we like when it comes to Willie Cauley-Stein. The big man still isn’t play as aggressive as majority of the centers in the league and the Sacramento Kings are a young team that is finally finding the groove as a team. WCS has a usage rate of 21% while averaging 28 minutes with 14 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assist. But he does get to go up against the Golden State Warriors who are slacking at the center position, giving him more chances to shine tonight. In their last match-up though, WCS only played 20 minutes, scored 6 points, 4 rebounds and a lonely assist. Nothing that turns him in to a lock or top play for us. He’s a mid-tier center that can definitely go off tonight if he gets the chances and is aggressive enough. The game is at home for him and the Sacramento Kings and with those fans behind him, he can easily turn it into a performance of the night on this team.

Risk Play

Markieff Morris vs. Brooklyn Nets

Salary: $5,100 -Needs to score 25.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Like the boss says, “Centers against Brooklyn”! So how can we turn away from the Washington Wizards big man, Markieff Morris? Well the only issue is that it is the Washington Wizards who are still struggling to figure it all out. Morris is averaging 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist per game, barely being under his value that we’re looking for. In his past five games, he has scored 31.75, 23, 22.5, 23.75, and 21.75 fantasy points. We obviously will need more and should get it out of him with this match-up. The Brooklyn Nets are giving up 27 points, 19 boards to the Center position as a whole and with the Wizards current situation of really having no true center, Markieff Morris is that guy tonight. While you’re looking to save salary, look at Morris who can be used in the Center position but also the Power Forward position on Draftkings. In his last match-up against the Brooklyn Nets, Morris did go off for 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assist. That’s a stat line that is hard to pass up when you see his price tag of $5,100. While he is under the “risk” tab of the article, I believe he’s actually far from it but we never know with this Washington Wizards team.

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