NFL FanDuel DFS: Week 15 Saturday Only Special!
Welcome to the ever expanding small-slate NFL FanDuel DFS coverage from FantasyCPR. It’s mid-December, and the NFL regular season is already close to coming to an end. This means it is time for some Saturday NFL football games, now that the college regular season has ended. FanDuel is offering a 2-game slate for just the Saturday games, and this article will offer up some players to target.
Now this will cover just the NFL FanDuel DFS two-game slate for Saturday, so I want to stress that this article is taking a GPP approach. If you are used to my Early Only Cash Plays article I have done all year here at FantasyCPR, this will be structured the same, but is intended for tournament play only. I do not play cash games for NFL even on three-game slates, as the popular opinion in DFS is that you need larger slates for more variance for cash games, and I agree 100%
Before we get to the targets for the slate, I will give a little quick breakdown for both games, and what to expect out of each game. This way, I can keep the individual blurbs shorter and bring you a quick five-minute read article. Following the targets, I will of course have the sample lineup on the last slide. Click the slide below to proceed to the breakdown!
Houston Texans (-6.5) @ New York Jets – (42.5)
Our first Saturday game of the NFL season kicks off at 4:30 PM ET, and it will feature the 9-4 playoff bound Texans against the 4-9 New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. The Texans are still trying to wrap up their division title with the Colts and Titans two games back, and they are also fighting for the second seed, a first round bye, and a playoff home game, so this game has plenty riding on it.
It looks as though Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold will be ready to be back under center once again, after leaving briefly last week, then later returning to lead the Jets to victory. The Jets will have to throw in this one, and with starting RB Isaiah Crowell landing on injured reserve, the starting job will go to an electric Elijah McGuire.
This match-up is tough, so I am not targeting much on this side of the ball, but McGuire should be active in the passing game on the check downs, and he could rack up some fantasy points. Other than McGuire however, I want no part of this Jets offense.
On the other side of the ball, give me all the Texans. On a two game slate and basically must stack situations, Houston is easily my favorite target here. Prior to last weeks Jets win, they had lost six straight. In that six-game stretch, they only averaged 13 points as an offense, and surrendered an average of 28 points per game. If I had to pick a score in this one, I say 31-13 Texans, and my hope is that we get all four Texans touchdowns through the air.
Although this a better spot on paper for the running game and Lamar Miller, I think the Jets will put that emphasis on keeping him in check. Wide receiver Keke Coutee did not travel with the team, and that opens up a very nice stack, which will be revealed in the sample lineup.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-4) – (44.5)
The second game on tap does not look like it will have any impact on the playoff picture, but the 6-7 Broncos are still technically “in the hunt.” With the strength of the AFC it would take a miracle for Denver to make the playoffs, but anything is possible in the NFL. Surprising to me, the Browns are not eliminated from playoff contention yet at 5-7, but they definitely have to win out to have a chance.
So when you break it down, this is basically a playoff game for both of these teams. Both still have plenty to prove, and I am going to lean towards a Broncos blowout at Broncos Stadium. This game will likely be decided on the ground, and I want both emerging star running backs Phillip Lindsay and Nick Chubb on my roster this week. There is also some value WR in the Broncos corps, and picking the right ones may make all the difference of whether you cash or not. Guys like DaeSean Hamilton and TIm Patrick mean something on this slate, so buckle up, it’s going to be fun Saturday night!
NFL FanDuel DFS: Week 15 (Sat Only!)
QB – Deshaun Watson – Houston Texans – $8,700
On a two game slate like this, the quarterback can be vital to your chances of success. While Mayfield is talented and turning into a solid NFL QB, he isn’t quite Watson status as of yet, and he is also not facing the Jets defense this week. My gut tells me the Browns will struggle to pass in that Denver environment, and Mayfield is in for a long day.
All Watson has done this season, is deal with injuries to the wide receiver position, and still find ways to win games. Houston lost its first three games of the season, only to win nine straight with some rather impressive victories sprinkled in there. It all came to an end last week when they finally lost 24-21 to the Colts last week.
Now the Texans will be on the road, but you have to throw that stuff out almost on a two-game slate. If any QB has a shot at a huge game this week, it’s Watson by a mile. I expect him and WR DeAndre Hopkins to be plenty active in this one, and both could easily be the most popular plays on the slate.
***Also Consider: Case Keenum – $7,200***
NFL FanDuel DFS: Week 15 (Sat Only!)
RB – Phillip Lindsay – Denver Broncos – $8,200
It was tough for Lindsay to get anything going last week against the 49ers, but Lindsay was as active as anyone in this offense. He rushed 14 times for just 30 yards, but he did find the end zone, giving him six touchdowns in the last four games. Lindsay was also more active in the passing game in that one which is promising. He was targeted seven times out of the backfield, and added four receptions and 21 yards to his stat line. He should be able to carve up this 28th ranked rush defense, and he is my top play at the position.
RB – Elijah McGuire – New York Jets – $5,700
We will need value, and the injury to Isaiah Crowell has given us just that. It’s just too bad McGuire will have to face a tough defense in the Houston Texans in this one. Regardless, a guy who should get starters volume at just $5,700 becomes an instant lock, and that is exactly what we get with McGuire.
He was a key part to the Jets comeback last week against the Bills, and ended conjuring up 15.8 FDP. After Crowell went down early, McGuire stepped in as the feature back, and amassed 60 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, against a stingy Buffalo Bills run defense. He also is a threat as a receiver, as I mentioned in the game breakdown, and he could be heavily targeted if this game gets out of hand.
***Also Consider or FLEX: Nick Chubb $8,000 – Lamar Miller $7,200***
NFL FanDuel DFS: Week 15 (Sat Only!)
WR – DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans – $9,200
When you look at the overall talent on this slate, Hopkins stands out by a mile, and he is priced as so also. You may think this is the spot to pivot off of him because of the price tag, but I find that highly unnecessary and almost not smart.
Hopkins is averaging almost 16 FDP per week this season, and the next closest receiver on the slate is Jarvis Landry under 11 FDP, and overpriced at $7,200. If I make multiple lineups I may flirt with Landry, but I don’t plan to do that on a short slate.
Despite having all the help around him at the position go down with injury at some point in the season, Hopkins has continued to be one of the top threats in the league. Battling double coverages more often than not, Hopkins has still managed to post fantastic numbers this season. He currently has 84 receptions for 1151 yards, and has found the end zone nine times.
WR – Demaryius Thomas – Houston Texans – $5,400
After assessing the other passing games on this slate, it was clear to me that the top spot to attack was this Houston offense. Denver’s offense could excel against the Browns defense as well, but there is just more overall talent here on the Texans roster, and the difference between Watson and Case Keenum is substantial.
Thomas still hasn’t quite clicked with this offense yet, and two straight underwhelming games have his price way too low here for a guy with this talent. It’s as good of a longshot as any, but I would rather have two Houston receivers than both of the value Broncos WR worth rostering. Speaking of Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton there of course, let’s pick one between the two.
WR – DaeSean Hamilton – Denver Broncos – $5,300
This is a tough call here, and could end up the difference on this slate. Hamilton scored a touchdown last week, and caught 7-of-9 targets for 47 yards, but Patrick was solid as well, catching seven passes for 85 yards. Patrick is a big-bodied possession type receiver at 6’4″ 212, and while Hamilton stands at 6’1″, he has around 4.6 speed and isn’t really a deep threat. The deep threat on this squad is solely Courtland Sutton, and for his inflated price I consider him a fade. I will go with Hamilton here, or I could switch to Patrick as well, but I won’t be playing both.
***Also Consider or FLEX: Jarvis Landry $7,200 – Tim Patrick $5,500***
NFL FanDuel DFS: Week 15 (Sat Only!)
TE – Ryan Griffin – Houston Texans – $4,700
My last Texans target will be basically a back-up tight end in some people’s eyes. Not so fast though. It appears as though the Texans are playing plenty of two tight-end sets, and both he and starter Jordan Thomas are solid pass catchers. Meanwhile, the play that will likely be over 60% owned at the position in David Njoku does nothing for me.
Njoku hasn’t topped 70 yards in any game this season, and has scored just three touchdowns. He had two weeks way back in early October where he saw double-digit targets, but hasn’t seen more than six in a game since. Everyone will be expecting big things from Njoku because of what happened to the Broncos at the position last week, and I think those that do will end up disappointed. I could be wrong here, but Njoku is the top fade in my opinion.
Last week against the Colts, both Thomas and Griffin were active in the passing game, seeing nine targets between the two and catching all nine. Thomas put up a 4-31 stat line and gave way to Griffin a bit. Griffin ended up with five catches for 80 yards, and for this discount, this position is easily my preferred punt.
***Also Consider: Matt LaCosse – $4,500***
DEF – Denver Broncos – $4,500
I am seeing a few projections sites saying basically to punt this defense on this two game slate and pay up for Njoku. No thanks. Like I mentioned with Griffin, Njoku just hasn’t done enough to warrant the price tag, and despite the fact that this Broncos defense just gave up 210 yards to George Kittle, I don’t see that happening again.
This is my stance to be different like we need to be for GPP, and my hope is the recency bias will steer people away from this defense. This group up front is talented enough up front to get some pressure on Baker Mayfield, and I think they have a huge advantage at home here.
***Also Consider: Houston Texans – $5,000***
NFL FanDuel DFS: Week 15 (Sat Only!) – Sample Lineup!
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides. It is not an optimal line-up. It is in fact, just a “Sample Lineup.”
QB – Deshaun Watson – $8,700
RB – Nick Chubb – $8,000
RB – Phillip Lindsay – $8,200
WR – DeAndre Hopkins – $9,200
WR – Demaryius Thomas – $5,400
WR – DaeSean Hamilton – $5,300
TE – Ryan Griffin – $4,700
FLEX – Elijah McGuire – $5,700
DEF – Denver Broncos – $4,500
Next. NFL DFS Game By Game Breakdown, Week 15. dark
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