Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: Week Fifteen NFL DFS Picks
By Raju Byfield
Rizzla discusses his week fifteen Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: NFL Yahoo Cup Daily Fantasy Football lineup.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: Week Fifteen NFL DFS Picks
With fantasy heartbreak consuming the hearts and minds of fantasy football owners across the globe, millions of fantasy owners are turning to daily fantasy football contests to get their ‘fantasy fix’, making identifying top values and plays more critical than ever.
As mentioned last week Yahoo has weekly free contests that award real cash and can easily be accessed using your existing yahoo fantasy sports profile.
As always I like to start the week by reflecting and learning from my biggest blunders in my week fourteen lineup. My biggest miscues last weekend included Justin Jackson, Brandin Cooks and the Los Angeles Chargers defense.
Justin Jackson was a terrible disappointment in week fourteen as he saw just nine touches which he converted into a measly 35 yards from scrimmage. Despite the plus matchup Jackson was bottled up for 12 yards on seven carries while Austin Ekeler saw fifteen carries against Bengals. The lesson learned here is to be weary when it comes to low-cost running backs with potential volume concerns.
Brandin Cooks had a high volume, inefficient night as predicted but was only able to haul in three of his seven targets for a pedestrian 22 receiving yards. Cooks had a tough time with the physical Prince Amukamara and taught me that he is a wide receiver to target in plus matchups.
The Los Angeles Chargers racked up three sacks but scored only three fantasy points due to allowing 21 points to the Bengals. The main lesson learned here is that despite great matchups any team giving up an average of over 21 points per game (21.3) presents a risk even if they can (only?) get to the quarterback three times.
For this week’s NFL Yahoo Cup free roll I followed my usual strategy of filling defense, tight end and quarterback first by identifying the best potential values and then doing the same for both running back and receiver.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: Week Fifteen NFL DFS Picks
Matt Ryan ($29 Salary; 13th salary rank; 6th personal rank)
Matt Ryan has a tough paper matchup this week as he squares off against a Arizona Cardinals defense surrendering the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Cards have allowed a mere 228 passing yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game on the season to the quarterback position, but this has as much to do with game script as the it does the Cardinals secondary. The Cardinals have relinquished 282 passing yards and two touchdowns per game when they have gone up against QB1’s this season giving a better indication of Ryan’s projected floor this week. Ryan seems like a high ceiling play at a solid price tag due to his perceived upside amid the Falcons struggles in the running game (only 63.6 rushing yards per game over last five).
Joe Mixon ($23 Salary; 12th salary rank; 4th personal rank)
My fourth overall running back for week fifteen, Joe Mixon squares off against an Oakland Raiders defense giving up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The RB10 on the season in average fantasy points per game is facing a team allowing 24.8 carries, 122.9 yards (second most) and 0.8 rushing touchdowns to go with 3.6 receptions, 36.7 yards and 0.2 touchdowns on per game on the ground to the running back position (4.8 ypc) giving Mixon a high floor in this contest. Second in the NFL in runs over fifteen yards, Joe Mixon is the focal point of the offense with A.J. Green on the shelf and will be given all the touches he can handle in this contest. While the Raiders defense is expected to key in on stopping Mixon they have allowed 101.3 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns with 32.3 receiving yards per game to the RB1’s they have faced this season suggesting that the Raiders defense still has trouble when they know they are facing an elite back.
Saquon Barkley ($33 Salary; 5th salary rank; 2nd personal rank)
My number two overall back for this weekends contest, Saquon Barkley seemingly has tough date with a Tennessee Titans defense allowing the fifth fewest fantasy points to enemy running backs. Though the Titans rank well in fantasy points against per game, they have allowed 4.4 yards per carry for 94.9 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns with 4.2 receptions and 25.7 receiving yards per game to the running back position. Deeper analysis of the Titans defense reveals that the Titans have faced only one RB1 all season in Ezekiel Elliott who saw 21 touches which he parlayed into a smooth 112 yards from scrimmage. Saquon should be good for at least 100 yards from scrimmage and a score this weekend making him a high floor option at home against the Titans where he averages 97.5 rushing yards and 46.8 receiving yards per game.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: Week Fifteen NFL DFS Picks
Robert Foster ($13 Salary; 50th salary rank; 34th personal rank)
The surging Robert Foster has a plus matchup against a Detroit Lions defense relinquishing the sixteenth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Lions have allowed 11.2 receptions, 166.5 yards and 1.2 touchdowns to the wide receiver position and are likely to be torched by Josh Allen on the ground and Foster through the air. Foster should have field day against Lions corner Mike Ford who is allowing a 81.5 percent catch rate on the season and a 118.8 passer rating against, while Darius Slay focuses his attention on second year wideout Zay Jones.
Robert Woods ($27 Salary; 11th salary rank; 14th personal rank)
Robert Woods has a targetable matchup against a Philadelphia Eagles defense giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Eagles have allowed 15.0 receptions, 197.8 yards (second most) and 1.2 touchdowns to the wide receiver position on the year giving all of the Rams receivers a high floor in this matchup, while the 7.3 receptions, 102.2 yards per game and 0.6 touchdowns per game to the top-20 receivers they have faced on the season helps to illuminate Woods’ upside this week. Woods has a tasty matchup versus Cre’Von LeBlanc who has allowed a 107 passer rating against this season and is someone to target for both cash and GPP plays.
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Brandin Cooks ($28 Salary; 10th salary rank; 12th personal rank)
The Philadelphia Eagles have been decimated by injuries and are a defense giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. As mentioned above the Eagles are allowing 15-197.8-1.2 per game to the wide receiver position and 7.3-102.2-0.6 to the fantasy receivers ranked in the top twenty that have faced on the season, giving both Cooks and Woods significant upside this weekend. Cooks has a plus matchup squaring off with corner Rasul Douglas who has allowed a 96.1 passer rating against on the season and should be a frequent target of Jared Goff after a disappointing week fourteen. My tenth overall receiver for week fifteen, Cooks, much like Woods jumped out as a value this weekend based on both matchup and price.
George Kittle ($20 Salary; 4th salary rank; 2nd personal rank)
New household name George Kittle has what looks like a daunting matchup this weekend against a Seattle Seahawks defense allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. While the Seahawks have surrendered just 3.6 receptions, 38.6 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game to the tight end position on the season, a closer look at the numbers reveals that the Seahawks have faced only two TE1’s all season. Kittle had a solid six reception, 70 yard outing against the Seahawks in week thirteen that saw him finish as the TE7 for the week and he should be in line for an even bigger day at home where he averages an outstanding 5.3 receptions and 100.7 receiving yards per game.
DeDe Westbrook ($12 Salary; 56th salary rank; 32nd personal rank)
DeDe Westbrook has an attackable matchup this week against a Washington defense giving up the sixth most fantasy points to enemy wideouts. Washington has allowed 13.2 receptions, 182.4 yards (fourth most) and 1.4 touchdowns to the wide receiver position on the season giving the $12 receiver significant upside fresh off of a season high 18.30 fantasy point outing that saw him tally seven receptions, 88 yards and a touchdown in week fourteen against the Tennessee Titans. Westbrook has a plus matchup this week against slot corner Greg Stroman who has allowed a 101.1 passer rating in coverage and is likely to have trouble with the 4.44 receiver. Westbrook looks like a great value play this week at a salary that has failed to account for Westbrook’s expanded role in the offense since Kessler took over, as he leads team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and air yards since Bortles was benched.
Jacksonville Jaguars ($14 Salary)
It is true that the Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a major disappointment on the season but they are in luck this week as they have what looks like a cupcake matchup against a Washington offense allowing the fourteenth most fantasy points to opposing defensive/special team units. The offensive line is dealing with injuries to multiple starters and has allowed an alluring seven sacks over the last two games. If that was not bad enough they are now down to their fourth string quarterback and have thrown four interceptions over that same time period. The Jaguars have been a more effective fantasy defense at home this season where they average a respectable 8.14 points vs a pitiful 3.6 points on the road. The Jaguars defense has been quietly trending up in recent weeks averaging 11.3 fantasy points in their last three home games making them a hot play against a struggling offensive unit.
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