DraftKings NBA Picks December 15: Pay for the King

DraftKings NBA Picks December 15: Pay for the King

There are seven games on our Saturday, but the Jazz-Magic game in Mexico City is earlier so we only have six of them in our DraftKings NBA main tournament. Boston, Charlotte, and Oklahoma City are playing in back to backs, so watch out for resting players. That said, most of Charlotte’s starters got enough rest in the second half last night.

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The money line crept up to 290.75 DraftKings points. A zero from Sterling Brown offset Giannis, and Furkan was a Furkan disaster, keeping my lineups out of the money.

The winning lineup was lower than I expected at 365.25 DraftKings points. He built with bigs Embiid and Jokic, and got massive value from Klay and the enigmatic Emmanuel Mudiay. Pat Connaughton as his Bucks value pick was the way to go as well.

This seems like a day to just pick one or two lineups and go with it. There aren’t a lot of pivots to go with here.

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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,200): Westbrook gets the added benefit of another easy matchup with the Clippers tonight. He had a strong and eventful game against the Nuggets last night. It’s hard to argue that Russ isn’t worth the money here. With a lack of stars on this slate, if you want a sure 50, you have to pay up. Westbrook is capable putting up 80, and the Clippers have struggled against point guards all year. This is a definition of the kind of upside you want for GPP usage.

Kemba Walker ($9,300): This is another place for Kemba to beast. He has been over 40 DraftKings points in four straight games, and it has  been three straight over 50 now as well. You can make a case for fading Russ and using Kemba here. Or you can get creative and try to use both. I may be leaning that way due to Harden’s troubles against Memphis in his career. In 34 games vs. Memphis in his career, the Beard is averaging below 40 DraftKings points per game.

Honorable Mention:

Kyrie Irving ($8,900): This is also a great matchup for Kyrie, but he also played last night. Like Russ, he got some extended rest though.  Kyrie only played 28 minutes in the first meeting with Detroit, but he still had 35.25 DraftKings points. If this game manages to stay close, Irving should have no issues hitting value.

Jeff Teague ($6,200): This is precisely where you want to use a guy like Teague. Phoenix doesn’t defend the point well, and could still be without Booker. I’m off of Booker regardless for DFS purposes, but Teague’s upside also takes a hit if Booker is in. Keep an eye on that. However, if you are looking for value in this range, Teague has a good floor and a modest ceiling.

Dark Horses:

Dennis Schroder ($5,800): DraftKings is slowly adjusting Schroder’s price to his output. He is still too cheap for his output, so I will be using him as a value guard again tonight. Schroder had at least 30 DraftKings points in three straight games up until last night. This should be a good rebound game for Schroder, but the price is getting harder to pay.

Derrick White ($3,800): Most are probably going to play Bryn Forbes again. While I don’t argue with that, White is playing just as many minutes and providing a much safer floor at a lower price. This is a great matchup no matter how you look at it. I would probably use White in cash games and Forbes in GPP unless you need the $400 elsewhere.

My pick: Walker(PG), White(G); Westbrook(PG), Forbes(G)

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,600): DeRozan is frustrating because the Spurs as a whole are. What I mean by that is the Spurs have only played in one game decided by single digits in the last nine contests. That means DeRozan and LMA are getting rested with regularity. That is a real concern here as well since the Bulls are more terrible than usual while trying to figure out their rotation. DeRozan has a nice matchup, but how many minutes will he actually play?

Honorable Mention:

Andrew Wiggins ($6,400): Wiggins has at least 29 DraftKings points in five straight games, so this pretty much qualifies at a hot streak for him. This is a big matchup against Phoenix, and Minnesota plays bad enough defense that this game could stay close enough for Wiggins to make it into the 30’s again. There is decent potential here tonight.

Derrick Rose ($6,000): To say that Rose has turned back the clock is a little unfair. A more accurate assessment is that Rose realized that what used to be his strength’s aren’t feasible anymore and he altered his game to match what he is still capable of. Gone is the explosiveness that he used to have, but Rose is still a solid defender, good shooter, and a good leader. He has a strong role on this team, and regularly hits value for this price. Rose is more of a cash game play, but in a spot like this, I have no problems using him in a GPP lineup.

Dark Horses:

Jeremy Lamb ($5,300): Lamb put up over 6x value last night, and has a great chance to do so here against the Lakers as well. The Lakers’ guard defense isn’t very good. Stacking the Charlotte guards and building around that could be the way to go at this slate. This game has the highest over/under of the night with the Clippers/Thunder the only one within ten points of it.

Patrick Beverley ($3,600): Bradley is starting, but Beverley is still getting run off the bench now with Lou Williams out. Beverley is a different sort of player than Williams. He isn’t just out there to shoot, but he is hoisting up enough shots to make pretty sure he’s going to hit value at this price. There is decent value on the table here.

My pick: Lamb(SG); Wiggins(SG)

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($10,700): Those of you who pay more attention to the Eastern Conference may remember LeBron against Charlotte. He has averaged 55 DraftKings points per game in 48 games against the Hornets over the course of his career. On a night where a Westbrook fade could make sense, you can build around LeBron. A LeBron/Westbrook core is also workable thanks to decent value on this slate.

Paul George ($9,200): George has piled up 98 DraftKings points on the Clippers in two games this year. One of those was without Westbrook, but he wasn’t significantly better in the game without Westbrook. This could be a game to help establish dominance in the West, so expect George and Westbrook to come up big in this one. I don’t have a problem with stacking them to start.

Honorable Mention:

Marcus Morris ($6,700): Morris has been a beast lately, but most of that has to do with Al Horford‘s absence. Horford is officially questionable for tonight’s game, so keep an eye on this situation. If Horford is out, Morris is still a strong play even at this price. If Horford is in, there is no way Morris hits value.

T.J. Warren ($6,600): Warren has back to back games of more than 32 DraftKings points against two solid teams in Dallas and San Antonio. The only thing that makes me nervous here is the defense of Robert Covington. That said, If Booker is out and with the status of Ariza uncertain at best, any Suns player is a risk. This team didn’t know if it was trading for MarShon Brooks or Dillon Brooks for Majerle’s sake! That’s the kind of crap we are dealing with with the Suns right now. Most G-League teams are run better than this.

Rudy Gay ($6,400): Gay is on quite a tear right now, but my reservations are the same as they are with DeRozan. Given a choice, I would use Gay, and not just because of the price difference. He is far more consistent than DeRozan at this point. That said, this game still makes me nervous.

Dark Horses:

Justin Holiday ($5,300): I had pretty much sworn off Bulls until I saw that LaVine is doubtful. That should leave a ton of shots for Holiday. Only his first game under the new staff saw Holiday play under his customary 35 minutes. Holiday’s minutes still seem secure, and the upside is definitely here with LaVine sidelined.

Marvin Williams ($5,100): You are probably neot going to see a 40 from Williams, but a game in the 30’s is a near certainty, especially against a team like the Lakers. Williams has hit at least three triples in four straight games. The good news is that the Lakers can’t guard him either.

Mikal Bridges ($3,700): For me, Bridges is only in play if Josh Jackson is out. With the Suns, you never really know what’s going to happen. However, I would still hope that they have the best interests of Jackson in mind. As opposed to when they started Booker and had to pull him in the first quarter.

My pick: James(SF); Holiday(SF), Williams(F)

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,900): Matchup wise, this is about the best one Aldridge could have. He’s still a fade for me. I don’t trust him at all. Really, the only Spur I’m considering tonight is Gay and maybe Derrick White. There are great matchups all around, but I have serious questions about Chicago keeping this close without LaVine. Kuzma looks like a much better option.

Kyle Kuzma ($7,800): Are you still scared of Kuzma? Why? He has been over 40 DraftKings points in every single game with Ingram out. Four of those are against top six teams in power forward defense. Charlotte is not one of those teams. This is a smash spot for Kuzma here. He should have no issues hitting 40 again.

Honorable Mention:

Robert Covington ($5,500): Covington’s salary has been on the slide because of his injury. He is probable for tonight, and this price looks too low. There is a big possibility that this game becomes a blowout, so I’m not as enamored with Covington as a may otherwise be. Still, he is a solid mid range option.

Bobby Portis ($5,400): Right now, Portis is far more reliable that Markkanen. I’m still nervous about almost all of the Bulls, but Portis would seem to be among the safer ones tonight. If you are looking for a GPP dart, this could be it.

Dark Horses:

Dario Saric ($4,200): Taj Gibson is out tonight, so Saric is going to become a chalky lock. However, I don’t see how we avoid this. Saric has 58.5 DraftKings points in 62 minutes over the last two games. Saric is going to see extended run tonight, maybe even in a blowout. Gorgui Dieng could be in play as well, but Saric is the definite must play here.

Richaun Holmes ($4,000): With Trevor Ariza out this time (so they say), Holmes is in line for another strong game. Time and time again, Holmes has put up enormous numbers on a per minute basis. That will continue no matter what his role. The Suns aren’t going to play him big minutes just yet, but there is still plenty of value to be had here.

My pick: Kuzma(PF), Saric(F), Holmes(UTIL); Saric(PF)

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800): KAT is going to do the monster mash on the Phoenix front for however many minutes he plays. Of course, not every time Towns is in a smash spot is a big game for him. This is one spot where there are enough other options on a smaller slate that I don’t feel trapped into Towns. Towns has really been off and on lately, but there is considerable upside here.

Clint Capela ($8,100): I’m completely off of the Detroit front against Boston, so that moves me to Capela. Gasol isn’t quite the defensive beast that he was in his earlier years, and opposing centers have started to take advantage of it. Capela’s true breakout season appears to be this year. He is in another good spot against Memphis here.

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Honorable Mention:

Deandre Ayton ($6,900): Ayton has had a lot of rookie growing pains this season, but this is a great matchup. Yes, his team is dysfunctional, but Ayton is guaranteed minutes against one of the worst defensive centers in the league at a very intriguing price.

Steven Adams ($6,500): In two games with the Clippers this year, Adams has put up 85.5 DraftKings points. One of those games was without Westbrook in the lineup, and that was easily his most productive. This is still a good spot for Adams, but you probably aren’t going to see him drop 40 this time.

Dark Horses:

Cody Zeller ($4,900): Zeller had a career game against the Knicks last night, and he has another juicy matchup with the Lakers tonight. Zeller may not get to 37 minutes again and he probably wont get to 48.25 DraftKings points again, but 5x value is certain and 6x value is likely. This is a very good value play for the UTIL slot tonight.

Daniel Theis ($4,300): Theis was a beast against Atlanta last night with Horford out. If Horford is out again, Theis bears watching. However, even with the Celtics beaten up, his minutes haven’t been all that consistent. With Baynes back, Theis actually played more with him on a minutes limit than with him totally out. Theis has the ability to put up good numbers in minimal minutes, which still makes him DFS crack.

My pick: Zeller(C); Ayton(C), Adams(UTIL)

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