FanDuel NFL GPP Pivots: Week 15 – It’s Brady Time!

FanDuel NFL: JACKSONVILLE, FL – SEPTEMBER 16: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots walks out of the tunnel before their game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on September 16, 2018 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)

Welcome back the Week 15 edition of FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots! As always, I’m looking to give our FantasyCPR readers some GPP pivots off the chalk for your Week 15 FanDuel NFL DFS contests!

We had some success last week for FanDuel NFL, with a minimum priced DeSean Hamilton and another big rushing performance from Josh Allen (who is now likely chalk this week). Week 15 brings us new challenges, as FanDuel pricing makes it harder to roster all the optimal plays.  Late in the season, we see cheap players emerge as chalk as DFS players are desperate for salary cap relief.

To me, it’s all about identifying the “good chalk” from the “bad chalk.”  If a player is projecting to be highly owned, you don’t have to fade them unless you don’t really don’t believe in the spot.

What you need to find is the low-owned player or stack that goes off and shoots you ahead of the competition. Pairing low-owned plays with chalkier plays is usually the best strategy when making those GPP rosters.

I’m going to go position by position and try to identify the chalk plays at each position and then recommend my preferred pivot(s). The goal here is to try to find a lower-owned play that outperforms the chalkier play, giving you leverage over the field in your GPPs.

I’ve used a number of different sites when trying to identify ownership, but this year I’m using FanShare Sports as my main source of information.

They do a really great job of tracking how much buzz players are getting throughout the week and their ownership projections have really helped me identify the chalk on a weekly basis. Check them out, they’ve got free information and their premium product is also really affordable.

Without any further ado, let’s get into the picks!

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Quarterback

Chalk: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott

Pivot: Tom Brady (7900)

Let me just start by saying a few things. I hate Tom Brady and the Patriots.  I have not rostered Tom Brady once this season in DFS. I am a Pittsburgh Steelers fan.  Tom Brady will carve up the Steelers defense this weekend.

I wanted to be honest with you from the start. It’s often easy to let our fandom and dislike for certain players keep us from rostering certain players in DFS. I will not do that this week as I think Tom Brady is an elite play and potentially the QB1 on the main slate come Sunday night.

The Pats are on the road in Pittsburgh and this game sets up perfectly for Brady to go off. The Steelers have a funnel defense that is sixth in the NFL against the run, which means we should see Brady throwing 40+ times.

This game has the highest total on the main slate and is projecting to be a shootout.  I’ve seen Brady pick apart the Steelers secondary enough times to know that he’s going to do it again. In 10 games against the Steelers, Brady has averaged over 300 yards passing per game and thrown 25 TDs and only 4 picks.

Brady has his full complement of weapons and he will take advantage of mismatches, specifically when he gets a slot receiver or his massive tight end matched up with a linebacker.

He’s hasn’t the type of season we’re used to seeing from him, but Brady looked sharp last week throwing for 358 and 3 TDs and the Pats offense looks like it’s rounding into form here in December as they tend to always do.

Right now, FanShare is projecting him at only 6% ownership and only the 6th most owned QB on the slate. Take advantage of that by loading up on Brady in GPPs. I’m so confident in him in this spot I may even use him in cash games.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Running Backs

Chalk: Ezekiel Elliot, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon

Pivots: David Johnson (7400), Tarik Cohen (6800)

One thing DFS players do in these late-season NFL DFS contests is to pay up at running back. We are looking at 20-30% ownership on the top bell-cow backs this week and it’s hard not to want to just jam them into lineups. While that approach is fine for cash games, it certainly limits your roster construction when building stacks and trying to find correlated plays.

Rostering David Johnson is…well…not always fun.  After a 2-week renaissance, he’s struggled and didn’t do much in some good spots against the Packers and Lions.  But the touches are still there. Johnson has 20 or more touches in 6 straight games.

He has one of the best matchups on the entire slate this week as the Cardinals travel to Atlanta to take on Falcons defense that has been exploited by running backs all season.

Their run defense is bad, but they have also really struggled against pass-catching backs like Johnson, who was targeted 10 times last week by his rookie QB. He’s worth a shot here in tournaments as he could have a big day at half the ownership of the highest priced backs while saving you 1500-2000 in salary cap.

Tarik Cohen never gets the ownership on FanDuel that he does on DraftKings due to his reliance on his pass catching for the majority of his points. We want rushing touchdowns from our FanDuel running backs and Cohen only has two this season and has carried the ball more than 10 times just once.

But, I love Cohen in this spot against Packers. Not only is Green Bay near the bottom the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but they also (like Atlanta) struggle with backs catching the ball out of the backfield.

Chicago will likely try to establish Jordan Howard in the running game, but if they fall behind to the Packers then the game script will favor Cohen and the short passing game. He’s a slate-breaking talent who will be under-owned for his upside in this spot and I want some exposure to Cohen this week.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Wide Receivers

Chalk: Amari Cooper, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster

Pivots: Davante Adams (8500), Adam Thielen (8200)

If everyone is paying up at running back, then we have a situation where the high-priced wide receivers will be really sneaky this week. Using cheaper backs and more expensive receivers is one way to ensure that you’ll have a unique roster construction compared to the majority of the field.

Davante Adams has caught a touchdown in 10 of the Packers 13 games this season. While the matchup here is a tough one against the Bears defense, this is still an elite receiver who is getting double-digit targets most weeks and playing with a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback.

Adams went 5-88 with a TD in their week one matchup and with how good Chicago’s run defense has been I think we see Rodgers and the Packer offense be forced to throw a lot in this game, meaning more targets and opportunities for Adams who is projected for SINGLE DIGIT OWNERSHIP right now by FanShare.

Adam Thielen got banged up last week against Seattle but came back into the game and still ended up with 5 catches for 70 yards. He has a much better matchup this week against a Miami secondary that continues to get lit up by opposing passing games and got seriously toasted by Brady and the Pats last week.

Like Adams, Thielen is a TD machine, with TD catches in 9 of 13 games and he’s a target monster, too.  With Dalvin Cook and the Vikings running game getting more buzz right now, I’m interested in some shares of Thielen to see how his new offensive coordinator will utilize his elite route-running and hands.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Tight End

Chalk: George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Eric Ebron

Pivot: Jared Cook (6300)

Before I get to Cook, let me just say that I am playing a ton of Gronk this week. Even if he ends up 15-20%, I will be well over the field. The correlation play with Brady and Gronk is one of my favorites this week and the Steelers have been hammered by tight ends all season long.

But if you’re looking to make some non-Gronk lineups, or even play a second tight end in your flex spot (an under-used and very contrarian strategy), then Jared Cook is the guy you want. He projects for single digit ownership and is coming off back to back games with 7 catches and over 100 yards receiving.

The Oakland passing game has come alive and Derek Carr and his receivers have an elite matchup this week against one of the worst pass defenses in the league in Cincinnati.

Since Carr doesn’t have a reliable receiving threat on the outside, he’s been targeting Cook consistently over the middle and having a lot of success. Cook has 18 targets the last two weeks and he should be able to exploit this matchup with the Bengals linebackers again this week.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Defense

Chalk: Bills, Jaguars

Pivot: New York Giants (3500)

Right now, FanShare has the Giants defense projected around 1% ownership and I’m pretty pumped because I love this spot for them.

Playing a cheap defense in GPPs is a great strategy as we usually see pretty flat scoring from defenses on a week to week basis and paying up doesn’t usually guarantee more upside when it comes to defense as it does for other positions.

The Giants defense is not a great defense, but they are playing some of their most inspired football right now. They’ve been one of the top scoring defenses the last two weeks, racking up 5 sacks and causing 3 turnovers in each of their last two games.

They’re at home this week against a very mediocre Titans offense. People might be afraid of the Titans after the Derrick Henry primetime performance last week, but that was likely an aberration and really more a product of a Jags team that has given up.

I think the Giants run defense can shut down the Titans here and force them to throw, which creates more opportunity for sacks and turnovers.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Value Plays

Chalk: Jaylen Samuels, Dante Pettis

Pivots: Jeff Wilson Jr., Isaiah McKenzie

Samuels is looking like he could be chalk again this week if James Conner does indeed sit out (which I think he will).  Meanwhile, Dante Pettis is highest-projected owned bargain receiver as he’s emerged as the best wideout in San Fran and Nick Mullens‘ favorite target.

Let’s stay with the Niners for a minute, but shift to the run game. Matt Breidas‘ status here will be crucial as he has not been ruled out yet and is lobbying to play. If Breida sits then Wilson is a no-brainer to me here at this price.

He went for 15 FD points against the Seahawks two weeks ago and would likely be in line for another 20-25 touches this week.  If Breida plays then things get murky and I’m a little sold on him in a potential timeshare.

Figuring out which Bills receiver to use this week is tough and Josh Allen hasn’t made it easy on us with the way he’s been spreading the ball around to different receivers in different games. At first, it seemed Zay Jones was his favorite target, but last week it was Robert Foster who had 7 catches for over 100 yards.

Instead of chasing the guy with the best stat line from last week, I’m going to roster the most talented athlete of the bunch in Isaiah McKenzie. McKenzie got some carries out of the backfield last week, scored a rushing TD, and caught 4 of 7 targets in the passing game and if Buffalo was smart they are going to continue to scheme him 10-15 touches in their offensive.

He’s an explosive playmaker and a really cheap piece we can use in DFS this week to fit in our favorite higher-priced plays.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Sample Lineup and Overview

I want to stress that you don’t need to have a low-owned player in every roster spot. Some of the names I mentioned as chalk, I will be playing alongside some of the pivots that I wrote up. It’s all about leveraging the chalk on any given week and finding the right balance of chalk and contrarian plays.

Stacking is important in any DFS sport, but especially in NFL DFS. I try to build my QB-WR (or in this week’s case QB-TE) stack first in many cases and then fill in around it.

If you’re good, you can build in multiple mini-stacks into the same lineup so that you have several different plays that are highly correlated. This week’s sample lineup is built around the Brady-Gronk-JuJu game stack but also has some correlation with Adams and Cohen from the Green Bay-Chicago game.

Remember that the sample lineup is purely for illustrative purposes and it’s not necessarily a plug-and-play lineup. I just like showing how the builds come together to give you an idea of how to start building yours.

QB: Tom Brady (7900)

RB: David Johnson (7400)

RB: Jeff Wilson Jr. (6100)

WR: Isaiah McKenzie (5100)

WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster (7800)

WR: Davante Adams (8500)

TE: Rob Gronkowski (6900)

FLEX: Tarik Cohen (6800)

DEF: Giants (3500)

That’s all I got guys, I hope this article helps you build some GPP winners this weekend. As always, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS with questions and comments and continue to look for in-depth NBA and NFL analysis from me and the rest of the FantasyCPR team