Stick’s Picks – FantasyDraft Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Targets
Stick’s Picks – FantasyDraft Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Targets (Main Slate)
Week 14 was one of my worst weekends all season for DFS GPP’s. My Quarterback selections were awful, and locking in Todd Gurley was quite detrimental for the RB1 position. The Gronk play was one of the few bright spots, but I’ll just chalk up last week as a loss and move on. Let’s get into the FantasyDraft Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Targets for the main, Sunday slate.
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Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks:
Jared Goff ($12,300)
The Eagles’ pass defense is absolutely dreadful. Dak Prescott, of all people, tossed for 455 yards against this defense in Week 14, lol. Vegas is projecting the Rams to do whatever they want on offense (32.8 implied team total) in this Sunday Night game at home, so I’m all-in on rostering Jared Goff.
Yes, the Rams are a two-score favorite, but after that awful performance in Chicago on prime time television last week, look for McVay and company to make a statement in this game. Goff is my QB1 this week.
Kirk Cousins ($11,600)
Similar to Goff, Kirk was brutal last week in Seattle and has to bounce back in Week 15. TeamRankings.com is currently showing a 26-point implied team total for the Vikings at home in this matchup against a banged up Miami secondary – I think they’ll score 35+ in this one.
Xavien Howard is going to miss this game, so there is no reason to shy away from Kirk and the Vikings’ receivers. It was interesting to see the Dolphins use Safety, Minkah Fitzpatrick, to somewhat “shadow” Josh Gordon in Week 14, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s tasked with keeping an eye on Stefon Diggs on Sunday.
That being said, I’ll have a few lineups with Diggs in them, but will mainly be focusing on the Cousins/Thielen stack that was so profitable early on this season. This is a must win game for Minnesota!
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Luck ($12,100)
Matt Ryan ($11,400)
Tom Brady ($11,000)
Jeff Driskel ($10,100)
Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Running Backs:
*I’m waiting on the injury report for the Dallas Cowboys before locking in Ezekiel Elliot. My main concerns are with the health of Tyron Smith and Zack Martin. If they are out, I will NOT be paying up for Zeke.
Saquon Barkley ($17,400)
How special is Saquon? This guy just gets a ton of volume and rightfully so. He has a tough matchup in Week 15 against the Titans and I’m assuming most DFS players do not want to pay top dollar for Saquon when he is in a tough matchup.
Odell Beckham Jr. has been ruled out for this one, so the workload should be heavy yet again for Saquon. If you can afford Saquon, play him with confidence. He is matchup-proof.
Todd Gurley ($16,300)
I believe this is the cheapest we will ever see Todd Gurley on FantasyDraft. The Rams are a 13-point home-favorite, which is an excellent script for Todd Gurley. I’ll have a lot of shares of Gurley in Week 15.
David Johnson ($13,300)
Pass-catching running backs against the Atlanta Falcons… He’s been extremely quiet lately, but DJ did bring in 8 receptions last week and I believe it’s a safe bet he’ll bring in 8+ again this week. I’m not quite sure where ownership will be for David Johnson, but at his price, I’d assume people avoid DJ this weekend.
Dalvin Cook ($12,400)
LOVE Dalvin Cook this week. We’ve been targeting the Dolphins’ suspect run defense all year long and will continue to do so in Week 15. As of now, I think 50% of my GPP builds will have some combination of the Vikings’ passing attack, and then the other 50% of my GPP builds will have Dalvin Cook.
Can you play both the Vikings’ running and passing game in one lineup? I don’t think it’s an awful idea, but I don’t love it. Maybe Kirk throws a touchdown pass to Dalvin? It could be a DFS Christmas miracle.
Joe Mixon ($11,400)
His price is criminal. Lock him in regardless if he comes in with 40% ownership in GPPs. He’s my favorite play on the slate in terms of value.
*All in all, I do not love anyone priced lower than Mixon, so pay for these mid-tier RBs and maybe one stud (Gurley or Saquon), and find some value at the WR position.*
Honorable Mention:
Leonard Fournette ($14,100)
Tarik Cohen ($12,000)
Jaylen Samuels ($10,200)
Tevin Coleman ($8,400)
Darren Sproles ($7,300)
Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers:
Adam Thielen ($16,100)
I touched earlier on how much I love Kirk and the Vikings’ passing game this week. The Vikings have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, so I anticipate them going back to what worked all season long: feeding Adam Thielen.
He’ll have the best matchup on the field if the Dolphins do choose Minkah Fitzpatrick to shadow Diggs, so I love Thielen this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($15,000)
It appears JuJu is Ben’s favorite target these days. You’re going to want to get some exposure to this Patriots/Steelers game on Sunday afternoon, so I’d lean JuJu on the Pittsburgh side of the ball.
My main question here is: Does Belichick game-plan to stop Antonio Brown or JuJu? My guess is Brown, and even if I’m wrong, this game should have a pace that will favor both Steelers’ wide-outs.
Brandin Cooks ($12,900)
Cooks is going to feast in this game against the Eagles. There is no one on the field who can contain his route-running abilities as his absolute game-breaking speed. Cooks could break the slate on Sunday if he can get free on a couple of deep balls from Goff.
T.Y. Hilton ($12,700)
Always love T.Y. at home, especially when he has been averaging 27.4 FantasyDraft points-per-game over the past 4 weeks. TeamRankings.com is currently showing a total of 47.5 (which is rather high for a game the Dallas Cowboys are playing in), so I really want to get a few shares of Luck and Hilton.
If Vegas thinks this game will be fast-paced, that is always a spot where you want to target T.Y. Hilton. Keep an eye on his health as he is currently listed as questionable.
Tyler Boyd ($10,600)
Tyler Boyd at this price is insane. There is no doubt in my mind he is good for 18+ PPR points this week against the Raiders. I do love Joe Mixon, but I will have a few lineups with Mixon and Tyler Boyd in them. I think this game shoots-out.
Maybe pair Mixon/Boyd with Jared Cook on the other side for a low-key,mini game-stack.
Randall Cobb ($8,700)
Assuming Randall Cobb spends most of his time in the slot on Sunday in Chicago, he will have a tasty matchup with replacement nickel-cornerback, Sherrick McManis (as the starter, Bryce Callahan was placed on IR).
This is a must-win game for the Packers and it appears Cobb and Rodgers are finally in-sync as Cobb was nursing injuries for most of the season. Look for Cobb to have 6+ receptions for 90+ yards. At this price, he’s an excellent choice as a salary-saver type of player.
Honorable Mention:
Julio Jones ($15,900)
Davante Adams ($15,000)
Robert Woods ($13,400)
Calvin Ridley ($9,800)
John Ross ($7,800)
Marcell Ateman ($7,000)
Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends:
I’m not going to get into detail for my Tight-End breakdown. All of these guys listed below are in excellent spots, it’s just a matter of “who do you want to pay for?”
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George Kittle ($12,000) – Highest ceiling at the position, probably the highest floor as well
Eric Ebron ($11,000) – I’d prefer Ebron over Kittle at this price, but Kittle’s upside is insane
Rob Gronkowski ($11,000) – Steelers bleed points to the TE position, Gronk will have to perform
Jared Cook ($10,600) – on fire lately and should have his way with a terrible Bengals’ defense
Vernon Davis ($6,300) – VALUE
Week 15 NFL DFS GPP DST & Sample Lineup:
As for GPP Defenses, I usually just take whoever I can afford (they are usually the last piece of my roster builds). My thoughts for this week are as follows:
- I won’t pay up for the Jaguars ($6,700) unless I have extra money laying around after lineup builds
- I don’t mind the Vikings ($6,000) with my Kirk-Thielen mini-stacks
- The Ravens ($5,900) are my favorite play of the week. Pick on Jameis when he’s away!
- Los Angeles Rams ($4,800) pretty nice value here
- Mitch Trubisky and the Bears’ offense was dreadful last week, give the Packers ($4,500) a serious look
Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Sample Lineup:
QB: Jared Goff
RB: Todd Gurley
RB: Saquon Barkley
WR: Brandin Cooks
WR: Tyler Boyd
TE: Vernon Davis
FLEX: Dalvin Cook
FLEX: Darren Sproles
DST: Green Bay Packers
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