Early DraftKings NBA Picks December 16: Don't fade Embiid

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Early DraftKings NBA Picks December 16: Don’t fade Embiid

There are seven games again on Sunday, but they are pretty evenly split for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. We have three early games starting at 3pm eastern. We have a lot of bigs with great matchups with the Nets and Knicks both on the early slate. Which one should we attack? How about both?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,800): Dinwiddie got paid in real life, and on DraftKings, apparently. The ratcheting up in price is due to Dinwiddie racking up 92.5 DraftKings points over the last two games alone. This is a strong matchup against Atlanta who has one of the worst offensive and defensive point guards in the league right now. Dinwiddie still isn’t starting, but he has topped 30 minutes in each of the last six games. His role is secure in the offense, and he is far more consistent than most options on this team.

Honorable Mention:

Emmanuel Mudiay ($6,300): Mudiay’s huge last two games earn him some print time here, but it’s hard to like this matchup, even with his more defined role of late. Of course, that’s only two games and Fizdale enjoys nothing more than torturing DFS players with rotations that make little sense. Mudiay has racked up 92.25 DraftKings points over the last two games, but Indiana has allowed the fewest fantasy points to point guards this year. This is a solid price on Mudiay, but this is a really tough matchup.

Trae Young ($6,200): Young is a very streaky shooter who happens to take a lot of bad shots whether they are falling or not. The volume keeps his DFS ceiling high, but he is hard to rely on because of huge inconsistencies. Take just the last three games for example. Young has one game with 44.5 DraftKings points against Dallas. He has 35.75 in the other two combined. This is as good as a matchup gets, but Young is still a huge risk.

Dark Horses:

Darren Collison ($5,400): There has been a precipitous drop in the production of Collison with the return of Oladipo. That said, Collison’s production hasn’t fallen to the point where it’s hard for him to get value at this price. This seems a fair price for Collison against the Knicks. That makes Collison a solid value pick here.

Collin Sexton ($5,200): Sexton put one of his better games of the season with 36.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Sixers. Sexton really can’t be counted on for consistent production. Most games the minutes are there, but Sexton has varied from a high of 45.25 DraftKings points to a low of 9.75 DraftKings points just over the last four games. Like with Young, the upside can be pretty big, but their floor is the basement.

My pick: Dinwiddie(PG); N/A

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 05: Victor Oladipo #4 of the Indiana Pacers dribbles the ball against the Houston Rockets at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on November 5, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

Victor Oladipo ($8,400): As expected, there has been some rust in Oladipo’s first two games back. Of course, the quality of opponents has gone a ways towards that as well. Oladipo gets a reprieve today against the Knicks. That could increase his output, but it could also cut into court time so I don’t know if Oladipo is going to improve on the 39 DraftKings points that he put up in the first meeting against the Knicks. Oladipo only played 32 minutes in that game, and I would be pretty surprised if he topped that today.

D’Angelo Russell ($7,500): Russell’s price makes it much more difficult to get any kind of value out of him especially with his floor so low. Russell hasn’t been over 30 DraftKings points in any of the last three games. And you know what? The Nets have won all three of those games. The Nets aren’t leaning on Russell to take and make an array of crazy shots anymore. They have enough output elsewhere on the court that if Russell is interrupting the flow, they just take him out. That could continue to be a thing. There is upside with Russell, but also significant risk, especially for this price.

Honorable Mention:

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,400): Many of us on the site have sworn off Hardaway, but 2lockSports remains faithful to his guy. This is one day that we should maybe listen to him. Hardaway rocked the Pacers for 40.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Of course, the lineup around Hardaway is almost constantly in flux, so we never really know if he will have the chances he did in that first meeting. With the defense of Collison, it should hold Mudiay down, which means a high volume of shots for Hardaway. Can he hit them?

Kent Bazemore ($6,000): Bazemore has picked up most of the slack left with the injury to Taurean Prince, but he could have a tougher go of it here. Even without LeVert, the Nets defend the wings very well. They have all sorts of issues with the middle of the court and the guy with the ball, but they have been able to shut down the wings. Bazemore has four straight games with more than 32 DraftKings points. He’s going to have a tough time making it five.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,900): The ineffectiveness of Alec Burks has led to a resurgence from Clarkson lately. Clarkson has 75.5 DraftKings points over the last two games, playing over 30 minutes in each of those games. I do expect Burks to keep starting, but he is showing no signs of breaking out of his funk. Clarkson should continue to get more minutes and far more production than Burks.

Dark Horses:

JJ Redick ($5,500): Redick takes a ton of shots, but does little else for the Sixers. That usually doesn’t matter since Redick is still one of the better spot up shooters in the league. He picked up 30.5 DraftKings points in the first game with Cleveland. The Cavs still don’t defend the wing all that well, so expect plenty of open shots for Redick.

Kevin Huerter ($4,400): Huerter continues to start for the Hawks. He gives the team good minutes and solid production. The sheer amount of minutes makes Huerter worthy of a look in cahs games, but as he showed on Friday, he has solid upside. Huerter put up 34 DraftKings points on the Celtics, so you have to think that he has upside against pretty much anyone.

T.J. McConnell ($3,800): TJ is only in play if Butler is out again. Furkan Korkmaz was the popular pick on Friday, and he Furked up most of our lineups. I’m not really willing to mess with that again, especially when McConnell is cheaper and far more stable. McConnell doesn’t get enough run with Butler in there, but if Butler is out, I like McConnell’s value.

My pick: Hardaway(SG); Clarkson(PG), Hardaway(SG), Huerter(G)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Ben Simmons ($8,800): I’m still on Simmons, but only if Jimmy Butler remains out. There hasn’t been enough news to really push this one way or the other yet. Simmons put up 47 DraftKings points in the first game against Cleveland, but I wouldn’t expect him to be that high again regardless of Butler’s status. I expect Embiid to be much more of a factor with Thompson out, which could cut into some of the production for Simmons. I still expect him around 5x value though.

Honorable Mention:

Thaddeus Young ($6,600): I wasn’t a huge fan of Young with Oladipo back, but it turns out that Young has been even more effective with Oladipo back in the fold. Prior to Oladipo’s return, Young had a strong streak of three games with more than 30 DraftKings points. In the two games with Oladipo back, Young has 107.25 DraftKings points. Oh, and Young ravaged the Knicks for 45 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Young is one of my few must play options of the afternoon.

Kevin Knox ($5,700): This is going to be a tough spot for Knox since the Pacers have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to small forwards this season. However, Knox has three straight games of more than 33 DraftKings points and more than 33 minutes played. If this trend continues, I expect Knox to still hit value since he was performing at a more than 5x clip anyways.

Dark Horses:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,000): Finally! A slate where we don’t have to pay attention to which Bogdanovic we have in our lineup! This is a Bojan only day, and it also happens to be a pretty good spot for him. Bogdanovic has a dozen straight games with more than 20 DraftKings points. That gives him a strong floor. The ceiling is limited with Oladipo back, so Bojan is probably more attractive in cash games, but there is room for sure points in GPP’s on a short slate as well.

Joe Harris ($4,500): Allen Crabbe is doubtful, so that should leave a whole lot of minutes lying around for Harris. Harris put up 35.5 DraftKings points on Washington on Friday with Crabbe out. This is a pretty good matchup for Harris once again, so expect pretty similar output. That is going to make Harris a popular value pick.

My pick: Young(SF), Harris(G); Harris(SF)

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 05: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks reacts after being charged with a foul against the Washington Wizards at State Farm Arena on December 5, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

John Collins ($7,600): Collins had a solid 31 DraftKings points against a strong Celtics front on Friday. At this point, I’m not scared of his floor. The price is pretty high on Collins here, but against the Nets, I think we have to pay it. The Nets are notoriously weak up front at both interior positions. There is great upside for Collins here.

Domantas Sabonis ($6,700): Sabonis dominated the Knicks with 46.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting in just 21 minutes. 21! Sabonis has rounded back into form lately, and this looks like a spot where he can put up a huge line. I don’t even think it matters who or what the Knicks throw at him.

Honorable Mention:

Noah Vonleh ($5,800): Vonleh took it to the Pacers in the first meeting, racking up 42 DraftKings points against them. The Knicks haven’t been all that consistent with the minutes given to Vonleh either, so this is a bit of a risk. He played 42 minutes against Charlotte on Friday after playing less than 30 minutes in three straight games. One of those was against Charlotte. At any rate, the Knicks should need the size of Vonleh against the Pacers. I guess it all depends on if they actually want to try to win this game or not.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,300): RHJ is more defensive force than flashy offense, but he is still a capable scorer. He should match up well against this Atlanta front. I can see RHJ as a strong mid range value play here. The Hawks are pretty bad against power forwards. There is a lot of weaknesses to exploit for both teams in this game.

Dark Horses:

Rodions Kurucs ($3,500): Kurucs could wind up as a chalk play against Atlanta here. The Nets rewarded Kurucs’ strong play off the bench with his first start on Friday. It went pretty well with Kurucs tallying 24.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes. If Kurucs starts again today, he is instant value, and a must as a value play.

Ed Davis ($3,400): Davis came off the bench behind Kurucs on Friday and was almost as productive as he had been even when seeing more minutes. The role of Davis is pretty solid as the main backup at the four and the five, so there is decent value here for the price. That said, with Kurucs only $100 more, I’m playing him because he is seeing a lot more minutes.

My pick: Collins(PF), Sabonis(F); Collins(PF), Kurucs(F)

CLEVELAND, OH – NOVEMBER 21: Larry Nance Jr. #22 of the Cleveland Cavaliers dunks over Tyson Chandler #5 and Brandon Ingram #14 of the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at Quicken Loans Arena on November 21, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Lakers defeated the Cavaliers 109-105. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bet:

Joel Embiid ($11,100): Okay, who pissed the big guy off? Embiid ravaged the Nets and Pacers for a total of 140.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. The combination of Nance, Channing Frye, and Ante Zizic is still pretty good up front, but they are nowhere near the defense of Tristan Thompson. This could be another monster for Embiid.

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Honorable Mention:

Larry Nance ($6,500): Well, the Cavs haven’t really had a choice lately. They have had to use Nance with Tristan Thompson out. Nance has responded with at least 30 DraftKings points in all four games with Thompson out so far. Embiid is not a great defensive presence, so Nance should be able to keep that streak alive this afternoon.

Jarrett Allen ($5,600): The Hawks are also in the bottom five of interior defense. This is a smash spot for all of the bigs in this game. Allen will probably see more minutes than anyone but Collins, and he isn’t priced like it. Allen could come close to 7x value here, making him an excellent mid range value. I trust Allen a lot more than the enigmatic Myles Turner or the minutes of Kanter.

Dark Horses:

Dewayne Dedmon ($4,700): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! Okay, so Dedmon is just one of about four bodies taking on Nets centers, but Dedmon is playing between 28 and 32 minutes per game. He can do a lot of damage in that time against this front.

Luke Kornet ($3,300): Instead of the Knicks doing the logical thing and feeding Kanter a ton of minutes with Mitchell Robinson out on Friday, they gave Kornet 24 minutes. That essentially means that Kornet and Kanter are in an equal timeshare here, which makes Kornet a huge value. He put up 31.5 DraftKings points against Charlotte on Friday. He wont have that much success today, but he is still hitting 7x value.

My pick: Allen(C), Dedmon(UTIL); Embiid(C), Nance(UTIL)

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