FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Monday, 12/17 -Dame’s Got Game!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Happy Monday, NBA DFS players, and welcome back to the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS.  I’ve been writing this article for the last two months and I don’t mind staying up late or getting up early to help you get a jump start on each NBA DFS slate.

Hopefully, you had some more success with NFL lineups that I did. I played Tom Brady and Gronk against my favorite team the Steelers and prepared myself for a beatdown by the Pat only to see the Steelers show up and win a big game at home.  The moral of the story is if you ever really want your team to win, just bet against them. It works every time.

As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Tonight we have an 8-game slate, which feels kind of light for a Monday night. I’ll be going position by position today as I usually do on any slate bigger than 3-4 games.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  At the same time, I would caution you against moving off too many of the plays you liked early in the day just because some value opens up.

As the season goes along, we run into more and more injury and rest situations that can entirely change the slate. It can be frustrating at times when players are ruled out close to lineup lock or afterward. My best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM or even the night before) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary.

Now, let’s take a look at what this slate has in store for us tonight!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 8-Game Monday Slate

Injury Report

***Zach Lavine has been ruled out for the Bulls tonight.  Kris Dunn started in his place and played a season-high 35 minutes and scored 41.9 FD points. However, his price got jacked up all the way to 7.2k for the matchup with OKC tonight.

***Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon missed Friday’s game for the Bucks. Both are listed as questionable, but neither injury seems serious and I’m guessing both will suit up for a tough divisional game with Detroit.

***Iman Shumpert missed yesterday’s game with Dallas. If he misses again tonight then look for Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic to both see an uptick in minutes.

***Lou Williams remains out for the Clippers. The Clippers have struggled in his absence and his minutes have gone to a number of different bench players, mainly in mop-up time.

***Kyle Anderson is questionable for the Grizzlies’ matchup with Golden State. “Slo-Mo” has great career numbers vs. the Dubs if he laces them up he might be in play at only 5500.

***Marvin Bagley III will be out for a while for the Kings. His absence has been big for Nemanja Bjelica‘s minutes and production.

***Taj Gibson should return for the Wolves tonight, but what is his role now that Dario Saric has emerged for Minnesota?

Headlines

The 76ers young trio of Embiid, Simmons, and Butler head to Texas to take on LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan and the 15-15 San Antonio Spurs.

The Houston Rockets host the Utah Jazz, a team that has beaten them twice already this season. The Jazz were able to handle the Rockets in their last matchup even after losing Rudy Gobert to an ejection in the first few minutes of the game.

The Late-Night Hammer features a game that should be competitive between a solid Portland squad and the surprising L.A. Clippers.

Vegas Info

As of the time of publishing, there were still two games (Spurs-Sixers and Bucks-Pistons) without Vegas info.

Golden State and Oklahoma City are 12 and 13 point favorites, respectively, at home.

The highest total on the board is in the Minnesota-Sacramento game at 232.

The Knicks are only 1.5 point favorites at home against the Suns.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

Damian Lillard (8800)

I’m not sure I remember the last time I saw Dame cost less than 9k on FanDuel. I’m not sure why he’s coming at such a discount tonight other than he’s had a few mediocre games (by his standard) lately.

The Blazers are getting paced up here by the Clippers tonight and have been one of the worst teams against point guards this year. I love Dame here and I think this is a prime bounce-back spot for him. He dropped 30 actual points on L.A. earlier this season and we all know what he’s capable of doing any given night when he’s got his jump shot falling.

DeAaron Fox (7500)

Fox is too cheap for this spot tonight. He’s flirted with 50 FD points in 3 of his last 4 games and finds himself in one of the best games to target for NBA DFS tonight here against the Timberwolves. Last week, the Minnesota defense held him to a 13-2-8 line, but he also has a 16-4-10 game against them earlier in the season.

The bottom line here is that Fox is coming on as this season goes along and he’s only one of a few sub 8k players that can get us to 50 FanDuel points tonight. I want multiple pieces from this game tonight and it makes sense to start your Kings stacks with their young, emerging point guard.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

Devin Booker (8400)

Booker came back from injury in a big way, scoring 28 points to go with 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 35 minutes.  The Suns were terrible without him, and his presence in the lineup immediately elevated the play of his teammates.

Booker has a great matchup here against the Knicks, who refuse to play defense on days that end in “Y” (yes, that is a joke…don’t think about it too hard).  I’ve probably said this before, but anytime I can roster a guy who plays point guard in a shooting guard spot, I do it. Shooting guard isn’t pretty tonight, so I’m going to pencil in Booker and then likely punt one of my other spots unless I’m game stacking the Kings-Wolves (more on that later!)

Buddy Hield (6400) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (6100)

Choosing between Buddy and Bogdan can be hard as they seem to take turns having big nights.  If Iman Shumpert sits tonight then I think both are them are firmly in play here as they’re priced very affordable and should see big minutes.

Buddy starts and plays alongside DeAaron Fox for the majority of his minutes. He played 39 minutes last night so let’s hope his legs are still fresh. He’s pretty scoring dependent, but he can certainly shoot the lights out if he’s hot. Meanwhile, Bogdan comes off the bench and plays on the ball more often, acting as a facilitator for the second team. He played 37 minutes last night and had a solid 15-7-5 line. Choosing the right Kings tonight will be a challenge, but it’s hard not to like most of their regulars.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

Danilo Gallinari (7100)

I bet not many people will want to pay 7k for “the Rooster” but I do. The expensive options don’t do much me at the position. Giannis has struggled against Detroit, Durant has a tough matchup against Memphis, and Paul George could end up in a blowout.

But back to Gallo, who’s quietly having himself a solid season for the Clippers, averaging 19-6-2.  He’s coming off a big game against the Thunder on Saturday night in which he scored 28 points and he’s seen his minutes and shot attempts go up since Sweet Lou went down (in the games that they haven’t been blown out in that is).

I like taking wing players against the Blazers. Damian Lillard is a solid defender against opposing point guards, but Portland has been exposed by shooting guards and small forwards this season. Gallo had a solid 17-8-5 performance the first time these two teams met back in November.

Nemanja Bjelica (5200)

Bjelica is one of my favorite European players to watch in the NBA. He’s a really talented dude who is capable of big-time performances when he gets the minutes. He’s been stuck in a timeshare with the rookie Marvin Bagley for much of the season which has made him a very inconsistent fantasy option. However, with Bagley out, he’s been thriving, going for 40 (against Minnesota), 26, and 39 FanDuel points in his last three games.  He’s way too cheap here for his role without Bagley in the rotation and he’s another piece of this juicy Sacto-Minnesota game that I want exposure to tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

Noah Vonleh (5500)

This is a price that I don’t mind paying for Vonleh, especially when he’s in a solid spot against the Phoenix frontcourt. The young big man has played 41 and 31 minutes in his last two games and he’s one of the few Knicks we can usually count on to get his full allotment of minutes as they seem committed to developing him this season. With double-digit rebounds in 3 of his last 4 games, he’s shown the type of upside he has on the glass and we’ve seen him crack the 40 FanDuel point barrier five times already this season.

Dario Saric (5300)

The homey has finally been set free in Minnesota by his new coach Tom Thibodeau, as he’s played 30+ minutes in three straight games. He’s produced in a big way, going for 24, 32, and 33 FD points in those games. Taj Gibson is set to return to the lineup for the Wolves tonight, but Saric was taking his minutes even before Gibson sat out last game.

Dario had a solid 18-6-3 line against the Kings just last week and I’m going back to him today as he’s still too cheap for his new increased role in the Minnesota rotation.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

Marc Gasol (8500)

I’m jumping on Gasol here as his price continues to fall. He was a 10k player only a few weeks ago and was putting up 50 FD points with regularity.  The Grizzlies are big underdogs here on the road, but Gasol has a history of solid performances against the Warriors and would have to have a big game for the Grizz to stay close in this one. In Gasol’s last ten games against the Dubs, he’s got a solid 21-9-4 average. Gasol has the skillset to thrive in a pace-up spot here.

Rudy Gobert (8200)

I’m not someone who plays narratives, but I’m thinking Gobert will be motivated tonight as he got tossed out of the last matchup with the Rockets.  Gobert got two quick fouls in that game, the second one being when James Harden flopped badly. Gobert took exception with that call and hilariously smashed the baby powder off the sideboard on his way out of the game.

Narratives aside, Gobert is the cheapest he’s been in weeks and I like him alot in this spot against Houston. This game should be tight throughout and played at a fairly slow pace, which should favor Gobert.

Brook Lopez (5600)

I couldn’t help but write-up three centers today. Lopez is too affordable, playing well, and has a matchup with Andre Drummond that he can exploit tonight as the big man can’t cover Lopez out a the three-point line.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays

Welcome to the bargain section of the breakdown.  This is where I highlight my favorite values for each slate. For our purposes, I am going to consider a player a “value play” if they are 5000 or less. There are usually several sub 5k players every slate who end up making 7x or better value.  And of course, we could also see more value open up later in the day if we get some more players ruled out before lock.

Avery Bradley (4000)

Bradley is my favorite value play tonight. He’s certainly capable of putting up a dud at any point, but he’s been pretty good lately, cracking 20 FanDuel points in 7 of his last 10 games. He’s playing a bunch of minutes with Lou Williams out of the lineup and he can get to 20 FD points pretty quickly if he makes a few shots and gets a few swipes.

Marco Belinelli (4200)

Shooting guard is a good spot to punt tonight, and I like the consistency of Belinelli’s game. He’s scored double-digit actual points in 5 straight games and has been an important scorer off the bench for the Spurs. He’s played 21 to 29 minutes over his last five games and seems to have solidified his role.

Wilson Chandler (3900)

Chandler is playing solid minutes for the Sixers and while he’s not a high usage player, he certainly has upside due to his rebounding, 3-point shooting, and defensive skill set. I like his chances to go over 20 FanDuel points tonight against the Spurs.

Nerlens Noel (4000)

I expect OKC to take care of the Bulls pretty easily tonight, which means we could see some extended run for backups like Noel. Nerlens has upside on any night that he can get 20 minutes with his defensive prowess as he averages nearly 2.5 blocks/steals per game despite his limited floor time.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Sacramento (+8) @ Minnesota (232 total)

These two teams just met last Wednesday, with the Kings winning 141-130.  That’s a lot of points scored for a game that ended in regulation. The total is the highest on the board and a full 40 points lower than where the game ended up last time. It’s hard not to love this game again, even if Sacramento is playing a back to back.

The Vegas total is juicy, but my favorite thing about this game is that most of the players we want are pretty easy to fit into our stacks, with Karl-Anthony Towns (10200) being the only player who’s pretty expensive. You can certainly fit Towns into some stacks here by using value plays, but I don’t think he’s absolutely necessary if you want to stack this game.

Both Jeff Teague (6600) and Derrick Rose (6100) are solid options here, as both are playing around 30 minutes and they’ve been taking turns having 30+ FanDuel nights. It was Teague who had a better night against the Kings in their last meeting, but I prefer Rose here as he’s cheaper and has a higher usage rating playing off the bench.  Andrew Wiggins (6300) is usually more of a cash play due to his solid floor but limited ceiling, but I’m all over Dario Saric as I mentioned earlier.

For the Kings, I already mentioned how much I like DeAaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Hield, and Nemanja Bjelica.  Throw in starting center Willie Cauley-Stein (7100) who’s been really solid lately and seems to have absorbed a few of Marvin Bagley‘s minutes.

Stack this game up, I think it goes well over its total and I don’t see either team pulling away from the other!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

Last week I added a new feature here to the breakdown. I’m going to give you my three favorite plays that I’m going to be building around in addition to the sample lineup. This is my core, meaning most of my lineups will start with these players and they are the plays that I feel have the best chance to help win some tournaments tonight. I may not have 100% exposure to these players, but they are the plays that will make or break my night.

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***Today’s Core***

Damian Lillard (8800)

Dario Saric (5300)

Nemanja Bjelica (5200)

***Starting your lineups with these three players will leave you with 6.7k per player for your final six roster spots. 

PG: Damian Lillard (8800)
PG: DeAaron Fox (7500)
SG: Devin Booker (8400)
SG: Avery Bradley (4000)
SF: Danilo Gallanari (7100)
SF: Nemanja Bjelica (5200)
PF: Dario Saric (5300)
PF: Noah Vonleh (5500)
C: Rudy Gobert (8200)

Ok, that wraps it up! I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!