FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Wednesday, 12/19 – Giannis vs. The Brow

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FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS.  Thanks to all of you who read the column every day. The NBA season is long, and hopefully, you’re having as much fun as I am grinding these slates every day.

As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Last night my core of Jokic-Bazemore-Dinwiddie was only good for 118 FD points as Dinwiddie and Baze let us down. I did have 100% Lebron and he had a solid 64, and his understudy Lonzo Ball was good for 37. All in all, not a bad night but I missed on some value plays that I needed around Joker and Bron.

We go from a small 4-game slate last night to a huge 12-game slate tonight. I wish the NBA would spread these games out a little bit more and give us more balanced slates, but there’s nothing you or I can do about that.  There will no shortage of solid plays and it should be pretty easy to make lineups that you’re going to like on a slate this size. I’ll be going position by position today in an attempt to give you my top 2-3 plays at each position.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Make sure you check out the “value plays” section where I spotlight players under 5k that we can use to help fit in our favorite studs and “core plays” section at the end which gives you my three favorite players to build around.  And of course, I always include my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  My best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary. Let’s take a look at what this massive slate has to offer tonight!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Injury Report

There are so many relevant injuries tonight in the Association that the injury report gets own page!

***Jeff Teague is out for the T-Wolves. Derrick Rose will be locked into starters minutes and should be a chalky play tonight. Tyus Jones also makes an interesting punt at 3900.

***Mike Conley and Kyle Lowry are both questionable for their respective games tonight. Conley was a surprise scratch on Monday, while Lowry has missed the last two games for Toronto.

***Zach LaVine will miss his third straight game for the Bulls tonight.

***Tim Hardaway Jr. is a game-time decision for the Knicks matchup with the Sixers. If he’s forced to miss the game tonight, FantasyCPR’s Brian Tulloch will leave him in his lineup anyway in case he changes into his uniform at halftime. All kidding aside, the Knicks would be pretty thin in the backcourt as Damyean Dotson is doubtful and Alonzo Trier is already ruled out.

***Bogdan Bogdanovic and Iman Shumpert are both questionable for the Kings. If either of those guys doesn’t suit up, we could be looking at a ton of minutes for Buddy Hield in a nice spot against OKC.

***Malcolm Brogdon is questionable and has missed the last two games for the Bucks. Role players Tony Snell and Pat Connaughton could be worthy punt plays if Brogdon misses tonight and the big three of Giannis, Bledsoe, and Middleton all get small bumps in production as well.

***Allen Crabbe missed his third straight game for the Nets last night. Joe Harris has played well in Crabbe’s absence.

***Jaylen Brown is questionable for Boston. If he’s out then Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart likely soak up his 22 minutes a game and both would have some appeal in a good matchup against Phoenix.

***Otto Porter continues to be out for the Wizards. Newly acquired Trevor Ariza played 38 minutes in his Wizards season debut last night and is likely going to get all the minutes he can handle until Porter can return.

***Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle are BOTH out for the Pelicans tonight. More on this later!

***Serge Ibaka is questionable for the Raptors, but Pascal Siakam is expected to return to the lineup after missing one game. If we get Siakam without Ibaka (or Jonas Valanciunas who’s also out) then I’m interested.

***Marvin Bagley Jr. continues to be out for the Kings, which should mean more extended minutes for Nemanja Bjelica and Willie Cauley-Stein.

***Al Horford will miss his sixth straight game tonight for Boston. Aaron Baynes, Marcus Morris, Daniel Theis, and Robert Williams have all absorbed his minutes but none stand out as great plays tonight as the minutes are all spread out there.

***Tristan Thompson is out again for Cleveland. They’ve finally decided to start Larry Nance Jr. at center and he’s in an excellent spot tonight against Charlotte.

Headlines

***Star Power***

It’s a star-studded slate as we have Westbrook, Curry, Harden, Giannis, Durant, Leonard, Davis, Embiid, Towns and Drummond all in the player pool tonight.

***Epic Battles***

We should see some fireworks tonight as “The Brow” Anthony Davis faces fellow transformational talent Giannis “the Freak” Antetokuonmpo in what should be an awesome matchup.

In Minnesota, young stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond will try to get the best of each other in a clash of the Titans.

***Can the Champs win in the Desert?***

The Warriors travel to Utah as only 3 point favorites to take on a tough Jazz team that has beaten them 3 out of the last 4 times.

***Be careful of “Back-to-Backs”

“Always remember the Kings” should be the cautionary tale that we reference in NBA DFS this year as we saw their starters no-show in the first quarter of Monday’s game with the T-Wolves and get benched for the rest of the game. With 24 teams in action today, I’m going to do my best to avoid teams who played last night if at all possible. Cleveland, Washington, Brooklyn, and Indiana all played last night.

Vegas Data

We are missing Vegas totals for three games still, but we already have 3 games with double-digit spreads as Charlotte, Houston, and Boston are all big home favorites. Predicting blowouts is tough, however, so you can’t just cross off those games.

The two highest totals are Pelicans-Bucks at 233 and the Kings-Thunder at 236. I plan to have heavy exposure to both of those games tonight.

The tightest spread comes from the Magic-Spurs game which is a pick-em right now, but it also happens to have the lowest total on the board.  Meanwhile, the Bulls-Nets game is only a 1.5 point spread with the Nets being slight road favorites.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

Welcome to Derrick Rose chalk night! FanDuel didn’t adjust Rose’s salary (6200) even with Jeff Teague being ruled out well in advance of the slate being posted.  Rose is a must-play in cash, but consider that he will be pushing 30% ownership in GPPs and that there are 23 other starting point guards to consider and he may be worthy of a GPP fade.

Russell Westbrook (11400)

It’s hard not to love Westy tonight in what should be an awesome “late-night hammer” matchup with the Kings. The Thunder are playing fast this year and the Kings are playing even faster. Westbrook thrives in these track meets and posted 60 FD points in the Thunder’s first game against the Kings this season. He’s a near lock for a triple-double tonight and he’s also piled up 19 steals in his last 4 games giving him a massive ceiling here tonight.

Kyrie Irving (9000)

Boston might be huge home favorites, but let’s not forget that Phoenix took them to overtime back in early November and has their star playmaker Devin Booker back in the lineup. Kyrie happened to put up 65 FD points in that game and is likely to get overlooked here tonight. He’s been ultra-efficient lately, piling up 143 FD points in only 95 minutes over his last three games and I think he has big-time upside here in this spot.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

James Harden (11600)

Harden is on another plane of existence right now. He’s shooting the lights out, getting every foul call, and getting away with taking 6 steps on his trademark step-back 3-pointer.  He averaging over 70 FD points in his last three games (yes, you read that right) and let us not forget that he dropped 81 FD points on the Wizards earlier this season.

He’ll likely see his old teammate Trevor Ariza on defense tonight, but I’m not sure anyone can stop him right now. He’ll probably be less popular than other studs based on the big spread here and the Wizards playing on back to back, but if you’re making multiple lineups tonight then having some shares of Harden tonight seems prudent.

Devin Booker (8600)

Speaking of “on another level” – Devin Booker has returned from injury with a bang, going for 45 and 54 FD points in his first two games back. He will try to lead his young Suns team to an upset tonight in Boston as they came up short in overtime in their first game against the Celtics this season. In that game, Booker put up a gaudy 38-3-9 line that was good for 58 FD points and I see no reason why he can’t do it again.  And in case you forgot, Booker scored a career-high 70 actual points in TD Garden back in 2017.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo (11800)

The Bucks and Pelicans are playing the second fastest-paced game on the slate and Milwaukee has the highest implied team total. What a spot here for Giannis as he gets to take on Anthony Davis and the Pelicans, who play pretty much zero defense.

Giannis averages over 1.6 FPPM which is only rivaled by Davis in the entire NBA. He’s in position to have a massive game tonight as long as the Pelicans do their part and keep it close. He’s my third favorite player on the board after Davis and Westbrook and I’m definitely going to have plenty of exposure tonight.

T.J. Warren (7100)

No one is happier that Devin Booker is back than T.J Buckets.  Warren plays much better when he has Booker running the offense and drawing the defense to him.  Warren is going to score when he’s out there and has scored 21 or more actual points in four straight games. Some might scoff at the price tag on Warren today, but I think he’s sneaky good as part of a Celtics-Suns game stack.  Booker and Warren actually correlate well and you can play them together in lineups in the hope that they both go off tonight.

Honorable Mention: Nemanja Bjelica and Trevor Ariza (5800 each)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

Anthony Davis (12700)

“The Brow” is my favorite player on the slate tonight. Everything is lining up for him to have a massive performance against the Bucks. Mirotic and Randle are both out, so Davis is going to be pressed into playing 40+ minutes in a fast-paced game.  With those two and Elfrid Payton off the floor, Davis is averaging over 2 FPPM, which is just insane and means he could push for 80+ FanDuel points tonight. The matchup is good, too, as power forwards have hurt Milwaukee this season, not that Anthony Davis needs a good matchup to succeed.

Larry Nance Jr. (7000)

Is it Nance chalk night? It might be, but I’m still making him a core play as he’s now starting for the Cavs at center and posting some serious stat lines. Nance has gone over 43 FanDuel points in 3 of his last 4 games and is fresh off 53 FD points last night against Indiana. As long as he continues to get 32-36 minutes of playing time, we have to consider him for tournaments until he’s priced up near 8k as he can rack up double-doubles easily and he averages 2 blocks/steals per game as well.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

If I pay up at center tonight, it’s going to be for one of these two big brutes who are doing battle with each other.

Karl-Anthony Towns (9900)

You probably know by now, but I love attacking Andre Drummond with athletic centers like KAT. Drummond is beast, but he’s not exactly nimble and he struggles guarding big men who can step out an play away from the basket.  Detroit ranks in the bottom third of the league against centers as a result. KAT is feeling it lately as he had a 60-burger against Phoenix last week and was well on his way to another on Monday before being pulled after only 21 minutes in a blowout of the Kings (he still scored 43 FD points in basically half a game).

Andre Drummond (9500)

Drummond has actually got the better of Towns in the six times they’ve faced each other during their careers. While Towns has averaged 19-10-2 in those games, Drummond has averaged 19-16-1 with 2.5 combined blocks/steals. As talented as Towns is on offense, he’s not much of a defender and I love targeting him with big bruisers like Drummond. Both of these guys are going to be tough covers for each other and I could see either of them putting up 60+ FanDuel points tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays

Welcome to the bargain section of the breakdown. For our purposes, I am going to consider a player a “value play” if they are 5000 or less. There are some really solid values here in this range tonight, and we could see more value open up tonight if we get some more players ruled out before lineup lock.

Tyus Jones (3900)

Jones played 23 minutes the other night against the Kings with Jeff Teague out. He could have played more if not for the blowout. I look for him to see 25+ minutes as the first guard off the bench and he could easily smash this price with those minutes tonight.

D.J. Augustin (4800)

DJA is interesting tonight against the Spurs. He’s played 32 and 34 minutes in their last two games and had one of his best games of the season against the Spurs earlier this year when he posted 18-5-7 against them in early November.

Jamal Crawford (4300)

Don’t look now, but the former 6th man of the year is back in the Phoenix rotation and playing 25 minutes off the bench. He’s scored 30 FD points in two of those games and we know he can fill it up when he gets that much time on the court.

Wilson Chandler (4300)

Small forward has a lot of value tonight and Chandler might be my favorite. He’s scored double-digit actual points in his last two games and seems to finally be settling into his role as the Sixers power forward. The matchup is excellent against the Knicks.

Solomon Hill (4300)

Hill and teammate Darius Miller are both potential values tonight as they should soak up most of Mirotic and Randle’s minutes. Hill has played 33 and 26 minutes in his last two games and has the ability to get enough points, boards, and steals to get us 25 FD points.

Mo Bamba (3900)

If you haven’t seen Mo Bamba play, you’re missing out. This kid is super talented and looks like a future star in the league. He’s only playing between 15-20 minutes a night right now but is consistently getting 20+ FD points due to his fantasy-friendly game.  His 1.4 blocks per game in those few minutes is elite.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack(s) of the Night

Am I allowed to pick two? I mean we have 12 games on the slate, so it seems fair that I can pick two games that I love for game-stacking purposes tonight.

Thunder (-5) @ Kings (236 total)

I love this game so much. I think people might avoid the Kings tonight because of how badly they burned everyone on Monday. Don’t fall victim to recency bias! This is an amazing environment for fantasy points as this total is huge and the pace of this game will be super fast!

I love the idea of pairing DeAaron Fox (7500) with either Buddy Hield (6400) or Nemanja Bjelica (5800) on the Kings side.  Then I’d run it back with Russell Westbrook and/or Paul George (9400) from OKC.

Pelicans (+8) @ Bucks (233 total)

This game is also so tasty for fantasy purposes. We really need the Pelicans to show up here, but if they keep it close we are looking at some serious fantasy potential.

Obviously, the two main plays to build around are Giannis and Anthony Davis. But you could also add in guys like Eric Bledsoe (7800) or Jrue Holiday (8900) on either side to get more exposure to each team.

There’s the value potential of Darius Miller and Solomon Hill on the Pelicans side, while we could see some value at shooting guard for the Bucks if Malcolm Brogdon misses in the form of Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown, or Tony Snell (depending on who would start).

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

My GPP strategy for tonight will be to concentrate most of my plays around several of my favorite games, avoid back-to-backs as much as possible, and my roster construction will mainly be a stars-and-scrubs approach that utilizes value plays to fit in as many expensive studs as I can.

Core Plays

Anthony Davis (12700)

Russell Westbrook (11400)

Larry Nance Jr. (7000)

Davis and Westy are my two favorite spend-ups on the entire slate and Nance simply can’t be ignored even if the Cavs are big underdogs and playing the second half of a back-to-back.  I realized this doesn’t leave you much cap space with only 4.8k left per player for the final 6 roster spots but there’s a ton of value at each position to build some awesome “studs-and-duds” rosters tonight.

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Remember, when building around a core you don’t have to include all three guys in every lineup. You can rotate them into other builds individually with game stacks or just use two of the three sometimes when you’re strapped for cap space.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s what I am starting today.

PG: Russell Westbrook (11400)
PG: Tyus Jones (3900)
SG: Jamal Crawford (4300)
SG: Marcus Smart (5200)
SF: Nemanja Bjelica (5800)
SF: Trevor Ariza (5800)
PF: Larry Nance Jr. (7000)
PF: Anthony Davis (12700)
C: Mo Bamba (3900)

Thanks for reading and make sure you check out all the other great content @fantasyCPR! As always, I love hearing from readers, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter with your feedback.  Good luck in your contests!