NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks: December 19th, 2018
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks articles!
It’s been too long CPR crew! After a week absence from the NBA Daily Fantasy stack articles, I am back to bring you a new and improved version of the NBA Daily Fantasy stacks article just in time for the massive 12-game NBA slate we have on tap tonight.
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
The difference in this article, however, is the new inclusion of the CPR-famous sample lineups using the plays in the article. This will hopefully give you a good framework for building your lineups. In addition, I have switched up the format a bit to make it a bit more organized. So, let’s get to it!
Primary Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ Milwaukee Bucks
Pelicans Team Ranks:
Pace: 4th (105.6 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 4th (110.4 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T24th (109.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Pelicans come into tonight’s game against the Bucks extremely shorthanded with Elfrid Payton, Nikola Mirotic and Julius Randle all ruled out. While this will certainly hurt them, it will also open up some potential value from a DFS standpoint. Below are the players worth considering in a stack, sorted by salary:
Anthony Davis ($12.7k FD / $11.4k DK): This play needs little to no explanation. He’s one of the top 3 studs on the slate, per usual and owns a 39.9% usage rate with the three players listed above off of the floor. If that isn’t good enough, he also averages a robust 2.22 fantasy points per minute in those situations. For reference, I have never seen a player average more than 2 fantasy points per minute until this.
Jrue Holiday ($8.9k FD / $8.6k DK): After a hot start to the season, he’s cooled off considerably and has a tough perimeter matchup with Khris Middleton. With that being said, he should be able to thrive in this up-tempo game and owns a 27.4% usage rate with Payton, Randle and Mirotic off of the court.
E’Twaun Moore ($4.3k FD / $4.6k DK): In his first game back from injury, Moore logged 34 minutes while shooting 4-10 from the field. While he hasn’t seen 30+ minutes on a super consistent basis, the lack of depth at the 3/4 for the Pelicans tonight opens up a lot of opportunity at a reasonable price, especially on FanDuel.
Solomon Hill ($4.3k FD / $4.3k DK): If you aren’t comfortable with Moore, Hill makes for a phenomenal value play. He’s posted at least 22 FanDuel points in back to back games while recording at least 6 boards in 3 straight games. I expect him to see a ton of run at the 3/4 with Mirotic and Randle out and could be a rather low-key value play tonight.
Jahlil Okafor ($3.5k FD / $3.0k DK): This is the definition of a punt…actually more like a blindfolded punt. Coach Alvin Gentry hinted that we could see some run for Okafor, noting that he’ll be ready when they call his number. With Julius Randle out, tonight seems like the perfect time. I wouldn’t go here on DraftKings, but with the ability to drop a score on FanDuel and with the Bucks’ lack of dominance on the glass, he could have immense upside if he sees the minutes.
Primary Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ Milwaukee Bucks
Bucks Team Ranks:
Pace: 6th (105.1 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 3rd (110.9 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 4th (102.8 points allowed per 100 possessions)
Surprisingly, I think that this is my first time all season writing up the Bucks in a stack article. Why that is, I don’t know, but they come into a favorable spot just about every night. Ersan Ilyasova has already been ruled out and we’ve seen this give a handful of different players opportunity as coach Budenholzer has toyed with the rotation. While there is risk in the value plays here, they have immense ceilings against the NOP defense. Below are the players worth considering in a stack, sorted by salary:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.8k FD / $11.4k DK): Yet again, another stud that needs no explanation. Over his last two games in particular, Giannis has averaged 38 points, 13 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2 blocks per game. The Pelicans have a stout rim protector in Anthony Davis, but if you’ve seen Giannis drive to the hoop, you should know this won’t stop him. He’s a clear-cut top option tonight.
Eric Bledsoe ($7.8k FD / $7.6k DK): Bledsoe has been the epitome of consistent lately, averaging 19.8 points, 6.5 assists and 5.3 rebounds in 32 minutes per game over his last 4 games. The Pelicans should be starting either Frank Jackson or an under-sized Tim Frazier at point guard tonight, giving him an extremely exploitable matchup. He’s my top mid-tier PG play on the slate.
Khris Middleton ($7.1k FD / $6.5k DK): Finally snapping out of his slump last game against the Pistons, Middleton posted 22 points and 6 assists in 36 minutes. This was after he failed to top 30 fantasy points in 5 straight games. He has a tough matchup against Jrue Holiday, but this could lead to more peripheral stats like steals and blocks. I’m more inclined to recommend him on DraftKings where his $6.5k salary is super enticing.
Brook Lopez ($5.7k FD / $4.7k DK): I would reserve this play for GPPs only considering he’s going to be guarding Anthony Davis, but Lopez has been great lately. He’s topped 30 FanDuel points in 3 straight outings, even while scoring only 3 raw points last game. He lives and dies by the 3 ball, which could help draw AD to the perimeter while Giannis drives. Should Davis collapse in these situations, he could find himself with some open shots and go full “Splash Mountain” mode. Again, reserve him for GPPs.
Pat Connaughton ($4.1k FD / $3.7k DK): This is another risky play seeing that he was a DNP-CD last game, but on the season as a whole in games where Ilyasova sat our, Connaugton sees the largest bump in minutes on the team (+6.2). He saw 30 minutes 2 games ago against Cleveland and if he can match that, he should crush value. With that being said, this is another big risk play. Proceed with caution.
Secondary Game Stack: Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls
Nets Team Ranks:
Pace: 23rd (101.3 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 14th (108.0 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T24th (109.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Nets are yet another team struggling with the injury bug as they continue to run out a thin wing rotation. Caris LeVert remains out and with Allen Crabbe missing last night’s game, he’s in danger of missing tonight’s as well. This should continue to result in expanded roles for some cheap options, part of the key pieces to a Nets’ stack that should go somewhat overlooked:
D’Angelo Russell ($7.2k FD / $7.7k DK): I’m not a big D-Loading fan and I’ve made that clear before, but you cannot ignore his recent form. Over his last 2 games, he’s averaged 27 points, 10 assists, 5 rebounds and 1 steal per game. Kris Dunn is a menace defensively, but Russell is a microwave-esque player and the Bulls surprisingly allow the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing PGs. If there’s a time to get on board, it’s now.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($7.1k FD / $7.3k DK): Ahh a CPR favorite! The guys at CPR (specifically Dan Palyo!) ooze over Dinwiddie and for good reason. Over his last 6 games, he’s averaged 23.5 points and 6 assists for 34.5 FanDuel points per game. If he doesn’t draw the start here, I think that would only heighten his ceiling against a G-League level Bulls’ second unit.
Jarrett Allen ($6.4k FD / $5.5k DK): While Wendell Carter Jr. can be a problem on defense, Jarrett Allen doesn’t rely on scoring enough to let that deter me here. The Bulls allow the 3rd most FPPG to opposing centers and Allen should dominate. The key word is should, because consistent minutes have been tough to come by for Allen (less than 20 in 2 of the last 4). He’s a high-upside GPP play.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5.6k FD / $5.6k DK): One of the reasons for Allen’s reduced minutes is because the Nets have been running small-ball with RHJ at the 5. Over his last 3 games, he’s averaged 31 minutes per game and has posted 16.7 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. This is a prime smash-spot for RHJ and he comes in reasonably priced across the board with 7-8x upside.
Secondary Game Stack: Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls
Bulls Team Ranks:
Pace: 17th (102.4 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 30th (97.7 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T18th (108.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Bulls are not in a good place, but the same cannot necessarily be said from a fantasy perspective. With Zach LaVine without an official timetable for his return, the guards should continue to see extended run and with Jabari Parker looking more and more like a non-factor, the front-court has some extra minutes as well in a cupcake matchup:
Lauri Markkanen ($7.4k FD / $7.4k DK): Bulls fans have something to cheer for because man Lauri is awesome. He’s stepped in seamlessly as the offensive motor for the team in the absence of LaVine. Over his last 2 games without LaVine, he’s averaged 19.5 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 steals per game. With LaVine off of the floor this season, he also holds a 27.2% usage rate. He seems like one of the safest plays on the board in an extremely exploitable matchup.
Kris Dunn ($7.0k FD / $6.3k DK): After a dominant 40+ fantasy point performance against the Spurs, Dunn struggled against the Thunder and was barely able to top 20 fantasy points. This, however, is a price get-right spot. The Nets allow 40+ fantasy points per game to opposing PGs and his salary hasn’t budged on DraftKings, where he comes in as a better value than on FanDuel.
Justin Holiday ($5.4k FD / $5.5k DK): Holiday is yet another beneficiary of the LaVine absence. While he is not the highest usage player, he’s seen 38+ minutes in 2 of his last 3 games and has posted 34, 28.4 and 22.1 FanDuel points respectively. He stuffs the stat sheet and while his ceiling is not 50+, he has a very stable floor for your cash games.
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5.3k FD / $4.8k DK): I know his production and minutes have been all over the place lately, but this price on DraftKings is ridiculous. The Nets allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing Cs (60+ per game) and if Carter can see 20-25+ minutes, he should be able to surpass value in a short amount of time. The concern here, however, is if the Nets run small like I expect them to.
Top GPP Stack: Golden State Warriors (@ UTA)
Warriors Team Ranks:
Pace: T12th (102.9 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 1st (112.6 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T14th (105.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Warriors, a GPP stack? Yes, you read that right. With so many other spots to target and with a tough matchup with the Jazz, I anticipate that Golden State will go a bit overlooked tonight. Given the fact that their prices are inexplicably low, they’re too good to pass up in tournaments and frankly, come in as cash viable as well:
Steph Curry ($9.2k FD / $9.5k DK): Curry has topped 60 fantasy points in 3 of his last 6 games and still finds himself below $10k on both sites. I expect that this is because of a tough matchup with the Jazz, but I actually think this caters to Curry. With Gobert locking down the paint, the Warriors should let it fly from the perimeter and play right into Curry’s strength. With a tight spread, he should see a full complement of minutes and checks in as my top dollar-for-dollar point guard on the slate.
Kevin Durant ($9.2k FD / $9.4k DK): This blurb echos the Curry blurb. This price is just insulting for a player as dominant as Durant. He’s posted 30+ points in 2 of his last 3 games and can easily contribute in any category you ask. While I don’t see this as a smash spot like a do Curry, I think he makes for a phenomenal leverage play in large-field tournaments assuming this game stays close for at least 3 quarters.
Klay Thompson ($6.9k FD / $6.6k DK): Thompson is one of my least favorite players in DFS, but I will never recommend you shy away from a player capable of scoring 37 in a quarter in GPPs. The Jazz will lock the interior down, like I said, making the 3-ball all the more important tonight and what better player to look to than the one who holds the NBA record for most 3s in a game?
Draymond Green ($6.6k FD / $6.4k DK): Over his last 5 games against the Jazz, Draymond is averaging 11.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 6.4 assists and a shade under 1 steal and 1 block per game. If we round those up to 1, that’s an average of 35.64 FanDuel points per game. At his reduced price, it’s hard to not see him hitting and/or surpassing value tonight.
Kevon Looney ($4.1k FD / $3.7k DK): Similar to the other value plays in this piece, this one carries risk. I do, however, expect him to see extended run in a matchup with Rudy Gobert. This is not a game that the Warriors can run a ton of small-ball in, which means Looney could see 25-30 minutes at near min-price. In games with Damion Lee out this season, Looney is averaging 0.85 fantasy points per minute, which would put him on par to shatter value should he see 25-30 minutes.
Top GPP Stack: Minnesota Timberwolves (vs DET)
Wolves Team Ranks:
Pace: 11th (103.1 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 15th (107.2 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: T16th (107.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
After an absolute annihilation of the Kings on Monday, the Timberwolves find themselves in another exploitable matchup and come in extremely reasonably priced. The “value” in the Wolves stack doesn’t necessarily mean they’re all dirt cheap, but I do think they’re some of the best point-per-dollar value plays on the slate. Jeff Teague has already been ruled out for the game tonight, opening up a heap of value in the backcourt:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9.9k FD / $9.7k DK): Towns has been downright dominant since the departure of Jimmy Butler and the fact that his salary dropped after his last game is astounding. In the route of the Kings, Towns posted 43.3 FanDuel points in only 21 minutes (a 14-14 double double). That’s more than 2.0 fantasy points per minute. The Pistons and Andre Drummond specifically are not as menacing in the post as people think, making this an exploitable matchup for Towns in a game where they’ll need him to play as much as he can.
Derrick Rose ($6.2k FD / $6.7k DK): With Jeff Teague off of the court this season, Rose holds a team-high 33.4% usage rate and averages 1.19 fantasy points per minute. The Pistons are also in the bottom third of the league against opposing PGs from a fantasy perspective, allowing 46.89 FD points per game. He’s right up there with Bledsoe as a top mid-tier PG play.
Andrew Wiggins ($6.0k FD / $5.8k DK): Echoing the Derrick Rose blurb, without Teague on the court, Wiggins also sees an uptick in usage (27.3%). While he averages less than a fantasy points per minute, he’s topped 30 FanDuel points in 4 of his last 7 outings, which would put him right at 5x value at his current salary. With so much attention in the post in this game and rightfully so, we could see people forget about Wiggins on the wing at a reasonable salary.
Tyus Jones ($3.9k FD / $3.6k DK): This is a risky play given his lack of a solidified rotation spot this season, but last game without Teague, Jones posted a 10-point, 10-assist double double in 23 minutes of action. Granted this was in a blowout of the Kings, but I see no reason he wouldn’t see extended run as the primary backup PG without Teague active. If that’s the case, he has a solid shot at being one of the top value plays of the slate. Again, this is a value play that does carry risk.
12/19 Sample Lineups (FanDuel & DraftKings)
Making their long-awaited debut in the NBA DFS Stacks articles, the CPR-famous sample lineups for tonight’s slate can be found below. By no means am I saying lock these in and don’t look back, they are more so to give you a good foundation of where to build your lineups using the plays from this article.
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Feel free to plug-and-play, feel free to tinker, feel free to fade!
FanDuel Sample Lineup:
PG: Steph Curry ($9,200)
PG: Tyus Jones ($3,900)
SG: Andrew Wiggins ($6,000)
SG: Justin Holiday ($5,400)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
SF: Solomon Hill ($4,300)
PF: Lauri Markkanen ($7,400)
PF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,600)
C: Jarrett Allen ($6,400)
DraftKings Sample Lineup:
PG: Steph Curry ($9,500)
SG: Kris Dunn ($6,300)
SF: Khris Middleton ($6,500)
PF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,600)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)
G: Pat Connaughton ($3,700) / Tyus Jones ($3,600) – Pick your preference!
F: Solomon Hill ($3,900)
UTIL: Wendell Carter Jr. ($4,800)
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