NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday December 19

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was an odd one in that the chalk hit hard and on FantasyDraft the chalk ended up in spots I did not expect. I certainly expected guys like LeBron James and John Wall to be popular but Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray were both near 50% plus ownership levels in GPP’s which surprised me a bit and even though my Nets-Lakers game stack managed to go over 300 fantasy points, not having either Nuggets chalk player when they went for 122 points combined was a death kneel to my cash position.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Wednesday’s NBA DFS Slate:

Before we jump into tonight’s massive NBA DFS slate – we have another Picks and Pivots FREE ROLL tonight from our friends at FantasyDraft who are giving away 10 tickets to the following day’s contests. I must say, the competition in these has been fierce among readers with the winning scores being higher than I am seeing in some of the tournaments across FantasyDraft so keep up the great work guys!

Now – into today’s slate – holy high totals and high dollar studs I want to jam into my lineups. Wow.

It is nearly impossible to overlook two games at first glance – the Pelicans/Bucks and Thunder/Kings – two games with 233+ Vegas totals, single digit spreads and by far the two fastest projected pace game environments. These are the only two games in which both teams see a pace boost and they are the top 4 teams in projected pace increases meaning you can almost start today by trying to create a player pool just from these two games….which is exactly what I want to explore.

So let’s see, OKC sees the largest pace boost on the slate and will face a Kings team that ranks bottom 5 in the league in defense over the last 10 games. This seems like one of those night’s when Russell Westbrook ($19.1K) has a triple-double at the half and flirts with a monster game and considering he has gone for 50+ fantasy points in all of his last six games against the Kings, we know the floor is about as safe as any star on this slate.

The Pelicans have already ruled out Julius Randle and Nikola Mirotic which means Anthony Davis ($20.7K) is going to simply be forced to do EVERYTHING. In 100 minutes of court time this year with Randle, Mirotic and Elf on the shelf (ha, see what I did there) – AD has a massive 40% usage rate while putting up 2.2 FP/M.

Now conversely you take Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19.9K) in a pace up game environment with a short-handed Pelicans front-court and it just becomes really hard to see a scenario tonight where one of these three studs, or maybe even all three – just go off and set the cash line on their own.

Listen, I am not telling you anything you didn’t already know – these three are superstars worth paying up for on almost any slate, but this slate in particular feels like it is playing with fire by fading them. I love being contrarian but I am not sure this is the slate to be cute.

The question is – can we afford to pay up for these guys? Now there is a path to get all three into your FantasyDraft lineups but it only leaves you $8K per player for the last 5 spots on your roster – so can we find a path to make that build work?

NBA DFS – Finding the Value:

Anytime we find ourselves looking for value in NBA DFS, we need to start with the injury report and find the spots where the sites have under-priced back-ups or role players who see an expected boost due to injuries to other key players.

Tonight we have a ton of injury news already and with a slate this size, my guess is we could see even more especially with a handful of teams playing on back to backs – so be ready for some random (illness) scratches.

The Toronto Raptors may be one of those teams we can use for value tonight despite a tough match-up with the Pacers as they may be down multiple pieces in their starting unit. Jonas Valanciunas remains out and it looks like Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are both OUT which means the Raptors could be seriously short-handed tonight.

Fred Van Vleet ($9.9K) started against Portland in the first game Lowry missed recently and dropped 37 fantasy points in 37 minutes and now with Lowry ruled out becomes an elite value play in all formats.

Last game with Pascal Siakam out, the Raptors pushed Kawhi to the 4, starting Ibaka at the 5 and inserted C.J. Miles ($6.9K) into the starting unit at SF and ran him out 33 minutes (but he only got 17 FPTS). Facing a Pacers team with Myles Turner AND Damonatas Sabonis inside, I am not sure the Raptors can take the same approach of playing small here if Ibaka does miss, so could this be a spot where the Raptors unleash Greg Monroe ($7.9K)? 

Well, we got an early answer to that with Monroe already being confirmed the starter for tonight, so….here…we…go.

Now Monroe has only played more than 20 minutes ONCE this whole season so there is obvious risk here but in the one game he played 21 minutes, he put up 28 fantasy points. When given the minutes, Monroe is a fantasy point per minute and usage beast and becomes one of the highest ceiling value plays on the board.

We got some additional early news which is making this slate even MORE interesting as the Magic have ruled OUT Nikola Vucevic tonight against the Spurs. This should open up a starting spot for rookie Mo Bamba ($7.1K) who already dropped 30+ fantasy points on this same Spus team earlier in the season in just 16 minutes. If you look at the Magic with Vuc off the court this season, basically every player gets a boost although interestingly enough Evan Fournier sees a 3.5% usage decrease and gets a team high 0.18 FP/M reduction to his totals. On a night where we need/want value – the Magic just entered the player pool – thanks Vuc!

NBA DFS – Can we stay in Milwaukee?

You guys know I love me some game stacks and maybe tonight, there is enough value in our top two game environments that we can simply focus in on that small player pool and find ways to make this build work?

With the Pelicans being down both Mirotic and Randle, the obvious spot to attack and rightfully so, is with Anthony Davis, but consider for a second how this could impact the rest of the New Orleans bench.

Looking at the gameflow from last game, the Pelicans closed with AD, Jrue Holiday, Darius Miller and E’Twaun Moore with Andrew Harrison running the point.

Darius Miller ($6.9K) and E’Twaun Moore ($8.8K) both played 30+ minutes against Miami and that was in a game Randle still played 30 minutes so it feels like the minutes are secure with both plays and that the expected usage boost with a high-usage play like Randle off the floor, gives them added upside at their price.

Cheick Diallo ($8.4K) could end up being the one to really benefit though here tonight – if Miller and Moore and guys like Solomon Hill are already getting 30 minutes, someone else needs to see the direct impact of Randle being off the court and that could be Diallo here tonight. The price is not nearly as low as the other Pelicans bench guys so he may be the forgotten value on this side.

You know who will likely be totally forgotten here? A guy already in the starting lineup who was routinely playing 30+ minutes a night in Tim Frazier ($9K). Frazier was benched in the Miami game, only logging 12 minutes but had played 30+ minutes in each of his three previous games and put up 31.4 fantasy points per game in that stretch.

On the other side of this game, the Bucks may be without Malcolm Brogdon again tonight and have already ruled out Ersan Ilyasova which puts the Bucks bench players back in consideration tonight.

Now this Bucks bench has burned people seemingly on a nightly basis the last week so tread carefully but there is value here IF we can get it right. Against the Cavaliers when Brogdon was ruled out, the masses went to Sterling Brown who rewarded them with 0 minutes of court time as it was Pat Connaughton ($7.2K) who got the start and rewarded owners with 30 minutes and 28 fantasy points.

The very next game against Detroit – it was Tony Snell who got the start with Brown playing 25+ minutes off the bench and Patty C never made it off the bench. So yeah, there is risk here but there may also be a “rest” theory in play as the Bucks seem fine giving Brown/Connaughton nights off and MAYBE tonight is the night they go back to Connaughton in the starting lineup.

The general message to take away here – this game not only has the stars but with Payton, Mirotic, Randle and possibly Brogdon out – you have four guys that were 30+ minute locks a night coming off the court so there is going to be value we can use within a game stack concept – we just need to watch for lineups news here to filter out which players will emerge as the best value.

NBA DFS – Stack the Kings:

If you want value and are looking to stay in the top game spots, maybe the answer is we stack up the Kings and run it back with Westbrook.

Now, I know the Kings just burned the world but this is a spot I think we can go back to if the injury news holds that both Iman Shumpert and Bogdan Bogdanovic are out, with both being questionable for this game.

We have not had a game that both Shump AND Bogdanovic have missed since October 30th against the Magic but if we look back at that game, we can see some potential value pieces that emerged in that rotation.

Justin Jackson ($6.3K) started that game while Troy Williams ($6K) played over 30 minutes off the bench while Frank Mason ($6.5K) and Marvin Bagley were the only other bench guys to see 20+ minutes.

UPDATE: The Kings have assigned both Troy Williams and Harry Giles to the G League so I wonder if this means Shump and Bogdan will be good to go tonight. Stay tuned.

With Bagley out due to injury – this Kings bench could be pushed into major minutes assuming both Shump and Bogdanovic are out. Trying to sort through recent game logs is nearly impossible after the entire starting lineup was benched last game so this one is going to take some digging and maybe that October 30th game against the Magic is the way to uncover it.

If we get news the Kings are without both guys mentioned then I absolutely have interest here and in tournaments, the recency bias could keep folks off them.

There is a path here to build a roster with Westbrook, AD, Giannis and 2-3 Kings punts that opens things up and even let’s you work in mid-tier Kings like Buddy Hield and Nemanja Bjelica. In a GPP, this could be a late night hammer that that delivers in a big time way.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this is a sample lineup ONLY and is meant to be an illustrative example with the logic laid out in this article. 

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Three Studs 

Russell Westbrook

Anthony Davis

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Pelicans/Bucks Value Stack

Tim Frazier

E’Twaun Moore

Chieck Diallo

Darius Miller

Pat Connaughton

Kings Value Stack:

Buddy Hield

Troy Williams (now in the G League)

Justin Jackson

Nemanja Bjelica

Frank Mason

Slate Overview: So take a step back here for a second and think about this slate and what we are trying to capture. If we believe in building around three studs – can we game stack around them in the two best game environments?

If we believe that the three studs noted here are in ceiling match-ups, you are playing them and sacrificing elsewhere to roster them on nights that you believe they could put up a 70+ fantasy point outing. If that happens, and these three guys can get you 200+ by themselves, considering their high ownership – it means you are going to need well higher than 300 fantasy points to hit the cash lines tonight so I think you need to aim higher if you are modeling this out.

So assume for argument’s sake you get 70/each from the big three which puts you at 210 fantasy points – and let’s argue you are aiming for 350 tonight in your GPP’s which means your remaining 5 players need to get you 28 FPTS each.

I think with the guys I listed out here – its possible – its also risky, but look at the plays listed here – there are “knowns” like Frazier, Hield and Bjelica that you would feel good about and then it becomes how willing you are to absorb the risk with the punt plays.

Tonight is the night you keep an eye on the news and find the value to make it work. I do not think tonight is a spot to get cute and pivot to the lower owned stars or try to go balanced build outside of multi-entry large field GPP’s. On FantasyDraft I rarely try to get cute as their format and smaller contest sizes simply don’t require you to which is part of the appeal in my opinion. Good luck tonight all – this one is going to be a doozy.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day.