NFL DFS Game By Game Breakdown, Week 16

We’re getting down to the end of the regular season for NFL DFS and this Week 16 slate is going to be a fun one with picking elite running backs!

If you played Week 15 and made money on NFL DFS or survived to the championship round in seasonal, my hat’s off to you. It was a nightmare for a lot of fantasy players(myself included) and it was basically the GIF of someone running away from explosions all around him. Players like Saquon Barkley and Adam Thielen didn’t even crack double digits and some like Leonard Fournette spent their time on the kickoff team. Hopefully there’s some much better luck this time around and we bounce back in a big way. Let’s get to it!

NFL DFS – Giants at Colts

Giants Breakdown 

One way you can tell the running back position is going to be crazy this week is Saquon Barkley is under $8,000 on DK against a defense that has given up 100 receptions on the season which is only nine fewer than the Falcons, who lead the league.  I’m not sure if he’s in the top three plays for the position and we’ll get to that later. Saquon should be able to bounce back nicely here against the Colts and the reception floor alone puts him in play at his silly price tag. The issue is they did just hold Ezekiel Elliott to a mere 18 DK points, in part because the Colts defense has just been better than we all thought. The other issue could be they might be without Odell Beckham again and Sterling Shepard hasn’t exactly shined without him.

This really isn’t a spot where I want to try Shepard for a third time because the Colts secondary limits big plays, which I think just makes Eli Manning check to ball down more to Barkley. Evan Engram is coming off one of his most productive games of the season and I think that could happen again this week. Indy is soft on tight ends, allowing over 1,000 yards so far this season. They haven’t allowed many touchdowns with just three so Engram might be best served as a DK options.

Cash Options – Barkley, Engram

GPP Options – Beckham(if healthy), Shepard

Colts Breakdown 

One of the best ways to get at least two of the elite running backs might be to put Marlon Mack in the flex spot as the third running back. Mack has played 59 and 61 percent of the snaps the past two weeks and he trolled the Andrew Luck owners last week with two touchdowns on 27 carries. The Giant have tumbled down into the bottom five of rushing yards given up per game and this is a juicy spot for Mack.

The passing game is certainly attractive as well. T.Y Hilton has been a lot more consistent this season and the matchup against Janoris Jenkins doesn’t concern me at all. I’ll take Hilton on turf against any corner in football, even though the Giants have only given up 18 passing touchdowns. The only reason I wouldn’t use Hilton in cash is because I’d rather spend that $7,100 on running backs. Andrew Luck himself is priced as the seventh most expensive quarterback on DK, which is just silly. He’s been one of the best fantasy options almost every single week. Eric Ebron was terrible last week and he’s perfectly fine in this spot, but given the price I think there are better options at the position.

Cash Options – Luck, Mack

GPP Options – Hilton, Ebron

NFL DFS – Texans at Eagles

Texans Breakdown 

If you had to face DeAndre Hopkins last week….well, I’m sorry for your luck. The good news is he’s in a second consecutive excellent spot as the Eagles secondary has been struggling all year long with injuries and poor play. They’re giving up the second most passing yards on the year and the third most PPR points as well. Hopkins leads the NFL in target percentage at 32 percent, with Davante Adams being second at 28 percent. In fairness, he’s “only” seventh in the league in raw targets because the Texans are third in rushing attempts on the year.

Because of the volume, Lamar Miller can be used in cash. Philly is about mid-pack against the run, giving up 104 yards per game on the ground but Miller has not demonstrated a whole lot of upside this week. If you’re playing Deshaun Watson, I think it has to be in a stack with Hopkins. Generally, if I wanted to spend on a quarterback in that range it would be Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger from the later game. Finally, Demaryius Thomas isn’t the worst mid-range option at receiver if KeKe Coutee misses another game. You’ll need some salary relief if you want to fit those high end backs in.

Cash Options – Hopkins, Miller, Thomas if Coutee is out

GPP Options – Watson

Eagles Breakdown 

I know Foles is going to tempt me all week. He looked like the playoffs last year, taking monster hits and completing passes that probably shouldn’t have been completed. His line would have looked a lot better had he thrown a touchdown and not a pick. Alshon Jefferey was the main beneficiary of Foles, catching all eight of his targets last week for 160 yards. I would likely rather pay for Zach Ertz given his slightly lower price tag and the Texans struggle against the tight end. They’ve surrendered70 receptions and only eight teams have given up more touchdowns. If you’re playing a running back, I still think it’s Josh Adams. He was banged up and only played under 40 percent of the snaps but when healthy, he’s the lead dog in this backfield. That just doesn’t mean much in Philly. I really wish this matchup was against a defense other than a talented Texans front because only three teams have given up fewer rushing yards on a per game basis. The Philly offense is in play but there’s plenty of risk.

Cash Options – Foles just due to price, Jeffery, Ertz

GPP Options – Adams, Smallwood, Golden Tate

NFL DFS – Jaguars at Dolphins

Jaguars at Dolphins 

Jaguars Breakdown 

I don’t trust any Jaguars player in cash after last week’s disaster. David Williams came out of nowhere and swiped playing time from Leonard Fournette, who dropped to about 51 percent of the snaps. Fournette’s price reflects the uncertainty, because he shouldn’t be $6,000 vs the Dolphins who are only a yard per game off being the worst run defense in the NFL. If Fournette gets ruled out, Williams might be the chalk of the slate. I would not expect that as I don’t really believe Fournette is hurt to the extent that he would miss the game. The fact they didn’t play Fournette in a competitive game gives me plenty of pause, but as a GPP option, you won’t get Fournette much lower than this scenario. I will likely not have exposure to any other Jags in a game that features an over/under of under 40 points.

Cash Options – Jaguars D/ST

GPP Options – Fournette, Williams if he happens to be “hurt”

Dolphins Breakdown 

I don’t know exactly why the Dolphins hate Kenyan Drake, but they clearly do. Kalen Ballage is on the radar as he seems to be in line for close to the Frank Gore role, which should give him double-digit touches. Jacksonville is quietly giving up close to 120 yards on the ground a game, even though that’s skewed by Derrick Henry. Miami’s offense is not something I want a large piece of against a defense that I still think is prideful enough to be playing hard. I suppose all bets could be off if the coaching staff continues to not play the best players, but that also doesn’t mean I want Dolphins in my lineup this week. There’s too many other good spots to take chances on receivers. For me, it’s Ballage as a GPP punt and not much else.

Cash Options – Dolphins D/ST

GPP Options – Ballage

NFL DFS – Packers at Jets

Packers Breakdown 

If Aaron Rodgers plays, I want to somehow find a way to play some of the more expensive running backs and Davante Adams. He sees close to 29 percent of the Green Bay targets and we just witnessed what a great receiver can do against the Jets secondary when Hopkins scorched them for 170 yards and two touchdowns. Adams has been as consistent as they come and will be in the mix for the overall WR1 next year(or should be anyways). Past those two, it’s hard to get too excited for anyone. Aaron Jones is on the injured reserve and Jamaal Williams will get the work but looked awful at the start of the season. Additionally, I have a very hard time paying for Williams when I can play Marlon Mack in a potentially better offense and in a better matchup for a running back. The rest of the Packers offense is a pass for me and I would leave them off completely if Rodgers does in fact sit.

Cash Options – Adams with Rodgers active

GPP Options – Williams, Rodgers

Jets Breakdown 

The Jets offense doesn’t have the big names but they are a little interesting here. Elijah McGuire was on the field for about 75 percent of the snaps last week and ground out some tough yards against a good Texans defense. The Packers defense isn’t quite as good and McGuire is an intriguing salary saver on the board this week considering he backed up the snap percentage with 21 total touches. Robby Anderson finally is coming out of his season long slumber and is still at a very nice price for his 18 targets the past two weeks and over 15 DK points in both. I’ve been on Chris Herndon most weeks but I will likely pass on him this week, even at a fair price. The Packers have only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends all season long. This game is honestly a fairly ugly one, especially if Rodgers is out.

Cash Options – McGuire, Jets D/St with no Rodgers

GPP Options – Sam Darnold, Anderson

NFL DFS – Bengals at Browns

Bengals Breakdown 

The Bengals offense is truly just a wreck right now. Jeff Driskel has been forced into duty and does not appear up to snuff as an NFL quarterback. He bottomed out last week with a 14-33 effort and a truly appalling 3.9 yards per attempt. I would normally target Joe Mixon against a run defense that has been gouged for over 2,100 total yards but I fear the Browns defense is able to replicate their effort from the Denver game. They totally shut down Phillip Lindsay and while Mixon is the better player, the offense is in the same type of dire straits. Mixon’s price is fair but he’s more of a GPP option for me. Both Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah are very sketchy given the play of their quarterback right now. That’s if Boyd even suits up, as he may be shut down with a knee injury. I won’t chase the other Bengals receiving options regardless of price.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Mixon, Uzomah

Browns Breakdown 

The Baker Mayfield/Nick Chubb stack really isn’t a bad way to go this week as Mayfield gets to see the awful Bengals defense for the second time. He scorched them the first time around for four touchdown passes, although the yards weren’t really there. With the amount of carries that Chubb gets, he could wind up being the best point per dollar play of all the running backs this week. Cincinnati is in the bottom five of both passing and rushing yards allowed so it’s hard to not love just about any component of the Browns offense. Jarvis Landry and David Njoku have both shown enough inconsistency that I can’t trust them in cash but they are both in glorious spots. The Browns are not mathematically eliminated yet so they should be giving their best effort this week.

Cash Options – Mayfield, Chubb

GPP Options – Landry, Antonio Callaway, Njoku, Browns D/ST

NFL DFS – Buccaneers at Cowboys 

Buccaneers Breakdown 

We all saw the floor for the Bucs offense last week and I’m not convinced it gets much better this week. They have to travel to Dallas, who has a good defense as well. Mike Evans had a solid day production-wise but also got pretty lucky he got a 64 yard reception on a broken play. I’m not sure I want to tangle with Byron Jones with a receiver that can be inefficient like Evans sometimes is. A very sneaky play could be Cameron Brate. The Cowboys did a great job containing Eric Ebron, but the Colts offense is different because they only have one receiver that scares you. The Bucs have three that need bodies on them in Evans, Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries. That could leave Brate to expose a defense that has given up six touchdowns and over 700 yards to the tight end position so far. The Bucs are in a tough spot again and I’m not that terribly interested.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Evans, Brate

Cowboys Breakdown 

If you were disappointed by the Cowboys offense last week, it doesn’t get much better for them this week. The Buccaneers rank in the bottom six against both the run and the pass and the Dallas offense is concentrated between three players. Ezekiel Elliott is locked into 25 touches even when the Cowboys get smoked. Amari Cooper is still carrying a 24.5 target percentage on Dallas and Dak Prescott handles the ball every play with rushing upside of his own. Prescott is one of the cheapest playable quarterbacks on the board this week. Running all three in a tournament is a really smart move this week in my opinion because if the Cowboys score 4-5 touchdowns, the odds are you have almost every single one of them in some form or another. This could be a spot just like when they faced the Eagles when all three players went bonkers. Just don’t expect another 52 DK points from Cooper this week and you should be all set.

Cash Options – Dak, Zeke, Cooper

GPP Options – Cowboys D/ST

NFL DFS – Vikings at Lions

Vikings Breakdown 

The Lions run defense has been much improved since the acquisition of Damon Harrison, but I still can’t understand why Dalvin Cook only got bumped $400 after going for 30+ DK points last week. He’s touched the ball at least 17 times in each of the past three games and is still firmly in play in all formats. Even if the going is tough on the ground, Cook has seen 22 targets the past four games so the floor is still very real for him.

The receivers both had average to poor days last week and it’s way past time to look at Adam Thielen as a potential bust at his price range. He’s not hit 30 yards receiving in three of his last six games and five have been at 70 yards or below. I just don’t see why I wouldn’t play Cooper or even his teammate, Stefon Diggs. While he’s been slower as well, he’s also shown the same game breaking ability so far this year and is cheaper. Every dollar could matter on this slate, as things stand. I’m all the way done with Kyle Rudolph, as he’s clearly not a priority in this offense anymore. Kirk Cousin is at a fair price but is still working with a new OC. There’s plenty of downside and he’s a GPP play only in my eyes. The Minnesota defense got to Matthew Stafford 10 times in their previous meeting this year and has another great chance for a solid performance this week.

Cash Options – Cook, Vikings D/ST

GPP Options – Diggs, Thielen(in that order for me), Cousins

Lions Breakdown 

Kenny Golladay proved that he can get it down no matter what the matchup is and I have interest to go back, but not a core play this week. I do wonder if he’ll play some in the slot again and that could help keep him away from Xavier Rhodes. Detroit still hasn’t exceeded 22 points in a game since October so there’s plenty of other spots to try. There’s no use trying to figure out their running back situation and even though Matthew Stafford is under $5,000, I would just play Foles with more weapons around him at home.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Golladay

NFL DFS – Bills at Patriots

Bills Breakdown 

I totally understand that going to New England isn’t the easiest spot for rookie quarterbacks, especially ones with limited weapons on offense…but what does Josh Allen need to do to get priced up at this point? He was over 19 DK points again and still is under $6,000 this week. There’s no reason to not use Isaiah McKenzie again either, as he continues to pay off his low salary. 14 targets in the past two weeks says a lot and he got carted off during the last game but still managed double digit DK points. Robert Foster saw his price hump up to $4,900 and it’s really hard to argue that it shouldn’t have. He’s emerging as the deep threat in the offense, which is exactly what Allen needs. Both receivers are in play and it just depends on your build if you want to use one.

Cash Plays – Allen, McKenzie, Foster

GPP Plays – LeSean McCoy, Bills D/ST

Patriots Breakdown 

I generally don’t play passing game elements against the Bills, even when the name is Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. They both looked mortal last week in Pittsburgh, which likely means they’ll go nuts this week since I don’t like them. Julian Edelman is probably fine for cash if you wanted to pay up but there’s no ceiling and Josh Gordon has been very quiet lately. The running backs are back to the Patriots way, with nobody being on the field for more than 40 percent of the snaps. The price tag for Sony Michel is so appealing but you’re going to tilt the entire time and if he doesn’t score, you could be in trouble. The Patriots being healthy usually doesn’t mean great things for fantasy and that has proven true these past couple of weeks. It could be anyone on any given week.

Cash Plays – Edelman

GPP Plays – Brady, Gronkowski, Michel, White, Gordon

NFL DFS – Falcons at Panthers

Falcons Breakdown 

For anyone that wanted to play Jeremy Langford, you can’t because he’s not in the player pool for the slate. So there, nobody can force me to play a terrible running back just due to his price. With Ito Smith and Devonta Freeman both on IR, I’m sure Langford would have gotten some love because he likely would have been bare minimum. Matt Ryan as the 10th most expensive DK option is going to be a great option since he’s averaging 26 DK points at home so far. That also meshes nicely with the Panthers giving up the 11th most yards and 28 touchdowns through the air. In 12 games against the Panthers, Julio Jones has totaled 67 receptions for 1,205 yards and five touchdowns. He’s a fan of seeing the division rival come to town and I think we can safely target the big three from Atlanta this week.

Cash Options – Ryan, Jones, Coleman

GPP Options – Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper off a goose egg

Panthers Breakdown 

I want nothing to do with the passing game, and Cam Newton might sit out the rest of the season. Even if he plays, he’s clearly hurt far worse than the Panthers have let on. The passing mechanics for Cam aren’t always the best on a good day and he looked like he was trying to throw a turkey downfield Monday night. Of the 29 pass attempts, Newton only threw one ball further than 15 yards per NFL’s NextGen Stats. In the past four games he has a 5/7 touchdown/interception ratio.

Christian McCaffrey is still a top option because of how the Falcons are built. They invite running backs to catch the ball, giving up 109 receptions and 980 yards so far. The slight qualm with him is if there’s quarterback issues, the defense might fell more comfortable playing close to the line to take away McCaffrey. A facet of the success CMC sees in the passing game is due to Newton typically having a bazooka for a right arm so defenses pick their battles. I wouldn’t talk anyone out of McCaffrey, but it is a situation to monitor through the week.

Cash Plays – McCaffrey

GPP Plays – Newton if his shoulder is somehow alright

NFL DFS – Bears at 49ers

Bears Breakdown 

The Bears are rolling into San Francisco as the NFC North champs and I suppose it could be a letdown spot. Jordan Howard is still too cheap for his recent production. There’s always the risk that he doesn’t get the carries but the past three games have been good to him with at least 16 carries and 9.0 DK points. The past two games Howard has approached 15 DK points and would be a fantastic play at that price. The 49ers are giving up about 112 yards on the ground, so there’s room for Howard to have a big game. The passing game isn’t something that I like trying to guess correctly on the roulette wheel. If I play Mitchell Trubisky, I usually just stack him with Tarik Cohen. That would be my path this week since no receiver particularly stands out.

Cash Plays – Howard, Bears D/ST

GPP Plays – Trubisky, Cohen

49ers Breakdown 

This shouldn’t be a surprise but I don’t trust Nick Mullens against the Bears defense. Sure, maybe George Kittle or Dante Pettis have a big game but it’s GPP only for those players. I will say that Pettis is another player who didn’t see a price bump when he should have. He’s scored at least 13.3 DK points in four straight weeks and has a spike of 32 in the middle of it. The most interesting facet for Pettis is the Bears have lost their slot corner in recent weeks and Eddie Jackson sprained his ankle last week. If they’re down Jackson as well, Pettis could do a lot of work on the interior. You could argue that goes for Kittle as well, but you’re paying a premium for him when you’re not for Pettis.

Cash Options – Pettis

GPP Options – Kittle

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 12: Robert Woods #17 of the Los Angeles Rams reacts as he runs to the end zone to score a touchdown during the game against the Houston Texans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 12, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

NFL DFS – Rams at Cardinals

Rams Breakdown 

One thing is for sure on this slate even late Tuesday night and that’s it will be John Kelly chalk week if Todd Gurley can’t go. Taking the normal grain of salt that it was preseason, Kelly looked good in his opportunity early this year. The Cardinals haven’t stopped running backs all year and I don’t think they get it figured out this week regardless of Gurley being in or out. Tevin Coleman tagged this defense for 140+ yards and had a long score called back due to penalty. For the passing game, I’m not going to risk Jared Goff. He looks shaken these past couple of weeks and there’s no real reason to force him into a lineup. Having said that, Robert Woods is super intriguing. He’s been playing in the slot a good bit and that would mean he should avoid Patrick Peterson. As Sean McCoy and Goff look to get the passing game back on track, expect Woods to be a big part of that.

Cash Plays – Gurley or Kelly, Woods, Rams D/ST

GPP Plays – Cooks, Reynolds, Gerald Everett as a cheap tight end

Cardinals Breakdown 

I have a very difficult time using any Cardinals even though they are at home and the Rams defense wasn’t exactly lights out last week. We look at last week and see a very respectable 19 DK points from David Johnson, which was very close to 3x. The crazy part is he got about 14 DK points on one drive and then fell silent. There’s just a massive lack of talent in too many areas to make me happy about a player from Arizona. I would rather play secondary pieces from better offenses and the Rams defense might have a field day.

Cash Options – None

GPP Options – Johnson

NFL DFS – Steelers at Saints

Steelers Breakdown 

This game is one of the main events of the day and with good reason. The Saints offense finally gets back home but the Steelers offense can match them punch for punch. They are second and fifth in points per game this year and we start with the Steelers. James Conner might be back, but if he’s not, just plug and play Jaylen Samuels. He played over 60 percent of the snaps and racked up 21 touches. The matchup with the Saints isn’t great but he’s involved int he passing game as well and we know the Steelers simply don’t split work with their backs. If they aren’t doing it here, they never will. All the passing game elements are in play but there are two very interesting element. Eli Rogers and James Washington both saw the field over 40 percent last week and Washington especially finally showed why he was a high draft pick. If this game shoots out, he could swing a GPP as massive leverage. Rogers would be more of a same play on DK with receptions.

Cash Plays – Big Ben, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, whichever running back is healthy

GPP Options – Washington, Rogers, Vance McDonald but it’s a bad matchup

Saints Breakdown 

New Orleans has to be happy to get back to the dome as the offense has looked out of sync the past three weeks. The first thing that stands out is the cheap price of Alvin Kamara. Sean Payton and Drew Brees should be smart enough to not try to hammer him between the tackles and get him out on the Pittsburgh linebackers. If that happens, Kamara could go berserk and is flat out too cheap. He saw over 20 touches this past game and pairing him with Barkley instead of a an Elliott and CMC pair could be a great GPP tactic. In addition, if the Saints can get Michael Thomas on the Keenan Allen plan where he gets covered by linebackers, it will be a long day for the Steelers defense. You can use any of the big four Saints this week with the main three being cash and the rest of the offense falling into a GPP. The dome swings this game to a high scoring affair.

Cash Plays – Brees, Kamara, Thomas

GPP Plays – Mark Ingram, Tre’Quan Smith

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