DraftKings NBA Picks December 21: Will Randle dominate Lakers?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks December 21: Will Randle be healthy enough to torment his former team?
The clunker of a two game slate last night leaves us with ten games for our DraftKings NBA slate tonight. There are only three superstars on the slate, but none of the four teams that were in action last night play tonight. There are plenty of injuries to watch here though, specifically for the Raptors and the Brow.
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The money line was at 263.75 DraftKings points last night. Seven of my eight builds made it above that mark, but only one topped 300. The last one missed by 0.75 points. My core of Harden and Jordan paid off.
The winning lineup was only 337, but that was also a little higher than I was expecting. He built with Harden and Jordan as well with Doncic, Gordon, Tucker, Barea, and Derrick Jones. Just like I did. His difference was Lou Williams, who was huge in his return at just 9% ownership.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Kemba Walker ($8,600): Kemba has ravaged Detroit so far this year. He has 100.25 DraftKings points in 73 minutes over the two games. Without any real star at PG tonight, Walker looks like the guy to go for if you are spending at the position. The dud against the Lakers is still fresh on people’s mind, so maybe we can get Kemba at fairly low ownership.
Damian Lillard ($8,500): Point guard is the only position in which the Jazz are not in the top ten of the league defending. That leaves Lillard in a very good spot here. Lillard had 102.5 DraftKings points over the last two games, including a nice 44.75 against Memphis. It’s safe to expect Lillard to be at least at that point tonight, and probably right around 50.
Honorable Mention:
Mike Conley ($7,900): Conley is on the probable side of questionable here tonight, but if this game even comes close to a blowout, Conley is going to rest early and often. The Grizz aren’t going to push him unless they have to. That puts a little added risk on here, but if Sacramento keeps this game close, this is a very good matchup for Conley.
De’Aaron Fox ($7,500): It doesn’t really matter if Conley plays or not. Fox has 91 DraftKings points in 73 minutes against Memphis so far this year. Conley has 74.75 DraftKings points in 71 minutes. Fox seems to be the way to go here no matter what Conley’s status. Of course, I’m not really opposed to using both as well if you can make it work.
Lonzo Ball ($6,800): Ball isn’t all that consistent, but he is going to see a lot of opportunity in this game with the paced up Pelicans. Keep an eye on the status of Rondo, but given the way Ball is playing over the last couple of weeks, Rondo’s return may not even register in Ball’s playing time universe. As Ball has shown a couple of times in just the last week, he is capable of big numbers, and this is a really good matchup.
Dark Horses:
Emmanuel Mudiay ($6,200): Mudiay has a great matchup here against one of the worst rated point guards on the planet in Trae Young. The only thing we have to fear here with Mudiay is the Knicks rotations. Mudiay has played at least 30 minutes in five straight and nine of the last ten games. He might be safe. Maybe.
Fred VanVleet ($5,500): VanVleet should draw another start here with Kyle Lowry already ruled out of tonight’s game. VanVleet has 50.25 DraftKings points in 58 minutes against Cleveland so far this year. If VanVleet plays around 35 minutes, it’s reasonable to expect around 6x value from him tonight.
D.J. Augustin ($4,400): Augustin is pretty much a matchup based play at this point. He did put up 27.75 DraftKings points on the Bulls just eight days ago. How much has changed since then? Not much, unless LaVine is still out for the Bulls. That could work to boost Augustin’s value a little more here. At any rate, this is a great matchup for Augustin.
My pick: Augustin(PG); Fox(PG)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jrue Holiday ($9,000): I see Holiday as a solid play anyway, especially at the two guard against the Lakers. However, if Davis misses this game, Holiday becomes a must play at this price regardless of the status of Mirotic or Randle. If Davis is out, use Holiday. If not, I have no issue going a different direction than this.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($7,400): Did you ever have someone in your life that promised you many things, often more than they could deliver? Hardaway is that person in daily fantasy. So many times he has a great matchup. Most of those times he comes up short. That’s going to be pretty easy to do tonight. Hardaway needs 44.4 DraftKings points for 6x value at this price. Even the 37 required for 5x value is a tall order for a guy that has only hit that mark once in the last eight games. He hasn’t topped 40 in nearly a month. So why is tonight different? Hardaway has 99.25 DraftKings points in just 65 minutes against Atlanta this year.
Honorable Mention:
Derrick Rose ($7,200): Rose hasn’t done much in two meetings with the Spurs this year, but he has also only played 48 minutes over the course of two games. He could see that in tonight’s game alone with Jeff Teague sidelined again. Rose played 38 minutes on Wednesday, racking up 48.75 DraftKings points against the Pistons. There is significant upside with Rose again with him running the point for at least one more game.
Buddy Hield ($6,700): I’m not wild about Hield against Memphis, but if Bogdan misses this game, Hield will see enough minutes to make him worth a look. Hield is already on fire lately. He also has a solid 65.75 DraftKings points in 68 minutes against Memphis this year. Hield may not hit 7x value, but he should be over 5. That said, if Bogdan plays, I’ll lay off of Hield. There’s no reason to reach on a ten game slate.
Kent Bazemore ($6,200): The main reason I like Bazemore here is leverage on Hardaway. Bazemore does have 58.25 DraftKings points in 61 minutes against Atlanta this year. 5x value is pretty much a given with Bazemore, but he also doesn’t have the upside that Hardaway does. Bazemore would be the pivot in cash, but as a tournament play, this is a contrarian play only.
Dark Horses:
Reggie Bullock ($4,800): Bullock has been pouring in points by the bucketful lately. He has 72 actual points and 95.75 DraftKings points in the last three games. Each has been better than the last, and this is a smash spot against Charlotte. Bullock put up 34.75 DraftKings points on them the first time around. With as hot as he’s been lately, Bullock could go even higher tonight. At any rate, he’s one of the best values on the board.
Garrett Temple ($4,100): Temple is a hard sell for me most nights. He is an average player that puts up consistently average numbers for an average team. For DFS purposes, he’s pretty bland. Then he plays the Kings. This kind of matchup causes me to look a little closer. The Kings still really struggle to defend off the ball. This could be a very nice spot for Temple, especially if Conley has to sit.
Delon Wright ($4,100): Wright’s numbers have been pretty close to VanVleet’s with Wright filling in Fred’s usual bench role with Lowry out. We can make a strong case for fading VanVleet at $1,400 more tonight. Wright has 52.5 DraftKings points in 60 minutes over the last two games. VanVleet has 62 DraftKings points in 69 minutes.
My pick: Bullock(SG), Wright(G); Hardaway(SG), Bullock(G)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,900): There’s no way I’m paying for Giannis against Boston, so LeBron is the best option. He is actually one of the best on the entire slate. Or is he? LeBron has actually teed off against the Pelicans 31 times in his career, averaging a shade over 50 DraftKings points per contest. Surprisingly, it was a little less than that last year. The pace up should help LeBron, but it hasn’t lately.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500): With Lowry out, Kawhi has dominated. He has 110.5 DraftKings points in those two games, and is in an ultimate smash spot against Cleveland. I am a little worried about a blowout here, but the absence of Lowry could help keep this game close enough for Leonard to flirt with 60 again.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Kuzma ($7,200): Kuzma dominated Brooklyn. Like no one expected that. However, this could be another situation where Kuzma turns in another impressive performance. That especially holds true if Randle is out. It’s not to the point where I’m off of Kuzma if Randle plays, but I do like him a lot less in this price range.
Aaron Gordon ($6,700): Gordon struggled against the Bulls in Mexico City, but it was only his shot that was off. The rest of his game was on against the Bulls. I’ve mentioned before how shooters often have trouble with their shot in buildings that aren’t made for basketball. I’m willing to chalk Gordon’s performance up to that. If he made 50% of his shots in that game, he would have hit 5x value. There’s the potential for more with Bobby Portis out again.
Kevin Knox ($6,000): Playing Knox big minutes is one of the few things the Knicks have done right lately. Knox is a big time scorer, and he seems to get better the more he’s on the court. That said, Knox’s upside is capped at this price. At this point in his career, Knox doesn’t do much besides score. That’s going to change at some point, and we may even catch a glimpse of it here in an elite matchup against the Hawks.
Dark Horses:
Joe Ingles ($5,700): Portland really doesn’t defend either forward spot well, so this is a big time spot for Ingles. Ingles averaged almost 29 DraftKings points per game against Portland last year in 32 minutes per game. His minutes have crept up to around 35 this year, so there’s a chance that Ingles could hit 6x value tonight.
Robert Covington ($5,700): Covington ravaged the Spurs for 41.75 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes in the first meeting this year. We have seen Covington become more of a part of the offense as he gets more comfortable with the team. This could be a big spot for Covington. Aside from Rose, he is the only one I’m on from this team though.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200): This is a big time spot for Bojan, but only if this game stays tight. He is such a big part of the rotation this year that Indiana isn’t going to let him pad stats in mop up duty this year. Bojan’s minutes have stayed up in the low 30’s even with Oladipo back and his production really hasn’t taken much of a hit. If this game isn’t a blowout, I would be shocked if Bojan didn’t hit 6x value.
My pick: Leonard(SF); Leonard(SF)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,700): I’m not crazy about Davis at this price. I like the matchup. I really love the situation with Mirotic most likely out and Randle still very questionable. So why am I nervous? The Pelicans had to juice him up pretty good to get him back out there on Wednesday. Apparently the virus is only worse if Brow still isn’t feeling it. That’s a lot to pay for a guy that may end up too sick to play.
Blake Griffin ($9,400): On paper, this is a big spot for Griffin. However, the 78.5 DraftKings points in 67 minutes isn’t exactly the dominance we were hoping for. That said, Charlotte still doesn’t have anyone that can guard Griffin. Maybe he dominates them this time.
Honorable Mention:
John Collins ($7,800): Collins hasn’t had the privilege of facing the Knicks yet this year. With the way Collins has been playing, he could absolutely dominate this game. Collins has only been under 37 DraftKings points once in the last eight games. That isn’t going to happen here. Collins has me seriously considering a THJ/Collins stack, which likely means I need sleep.
Julius Randle ($7,500): If Randle can play, lock and load. I want all shares of Randle against the team that didn’t think he was worth investing in. It’s like what Jordan did to the Clippers….twice. Randle will be a monster if his ankle is good.
Domantas Sabonis ($6,600): This could be a big game for Sabonis. He’s only playing about half the game, but Sabonis hasn’t been under 27 DraftKings points in the last five games. The Nets are almost as bad at the four as the five. You could conceivably use the entire Indiana front here.
Dark Horses:
Thaddeus Young ($5,800): Young continues to be a force inside for the Pacers. The slow start is over, and now he’s playing the Nets. This may be a bigger spot for Sabonis, but Thad is going to see enough minutes and is more consistent than Sabonis. I can find room for that in my lineups.
Jae Crowder ($5,000): Forwards against Portland. It’s a thing like centers against the Nets or point guards against the Clippers. We saw what the Clippers did to Portland earlier this year. Utah’s forwards aren’t quite what the Clippers’ are, but there is still value to be had here, especially with Crowder this cheap.
Darius Miller ($4,000): Solomon Hill is probably going to play more minutes, but Miller is the guy that more closely mimics the skill set of Mirotic, who is generously listed as doubtful. Miller may not have the huge night that he did on Wednesday, but they are still going to lean on him to try and make up for the loss of Mirotic. Miller is a strong value play again.
My pick: Collins(PF), Sabonis(F); Miller(PF)
DraftKings NBA Centers
Best Bets:
Nikola Vucevic ($9,200): Vucevic didn’t struggle against the Bulls. Probably because most of his shots were closer to the hoop. I see him dominating the Bulls on the inside again. Vucevic hasn’t been below 37 DraftKings points in the last dozen games. That’s the type of floor I want when paying top dollar.
Andre Drummond ($8,900): Drummond has 107.75 DraftKings points in just 68 minutes against Charlotte this year. I’ll translate: the Hornets have zero answers fro Drummond up front. The only thing that can stop him is the foul line.
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Honorable Mention:
Myles Turner ($7,300): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! Of course, Turner only had 31.5 DraftKings points against the Knicks the first time around. My question: why did he only play 26 minutes?
Enes Kanter ($7,000): Kanter has 73 DraftKings points in 57 minutes against the Hawks so far this year. The only thing that can throw a wrench in this is the Knicks’ rotations, but if Robinson is still out, Fizdale’s options for screwing with DFS players are limited. Let’s hope for that.
Larry Nance ($6,700): Look what happens. The Cavs finally give Nance run, and he racks up 99.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. If Ibaka can’t go here, Nance is going to dominate this Toronto front. Monroe wont be able to stop him.
Dark Horses:
Dewayne Dedmon ($5,900): Dedmon is playing at a high level lately. He has 113.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. One of those was against a solid Boston front. I’m guessing this is Dedmon’s fourth straight over 30, which leaves him a strong 5x value.
Noah Vonleh ($5,600): Vonleh has racked up 68.75 DraftKings points in 55 minutes against Atlanta this year. Yes, I’m just as shocked as you are about the amount of Knicks and Hawks consideration here. I almost think you either game stack this or fade the volatility completely. It doesn’t seem worth the risk if you can’t reap the full rewards.
Robert Williams ($3,800): Horford is out again, so that could mean good minutes against for Williams. Williams has 11 blocks over the last three games. Even if he isn’t scoring that many points, those blocks rack up points very quickly.
My pick: Drummond(C), Williams(UTIL); Turner(C), Williams(UTIL), Vonleh(F)
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