Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies: Week 16

Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 16

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story.

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

CAR (Pass: 28th, Run: 13th), SF (Pass: 25th, Run: 12th), PIT (Pass: 21st, Run: 8th), IND (Pass: 17th, Run 4th), NO (Pass: 15th, Run: 3rd), HOU (Pass: 22nd, Run: 2nd)

Run Funnel Defenses:

KC (Pass: 13th, Run 32nd), WAS (Pass: 10th, Run: 29th), ARI (Pass: 11th, Run: 24th), LARM (Pass: 8th, Run: 28th), CLE (Pass: 6th, Run: 23rd),

Cincinnati ranks 26 in run defense efficiency 

Cleveland will host the visiting Cincinnati Bengals in a game in which the Browns need, in order to stay alive in the playoff hunt. While handicapping motivation into games can be misleading, I think the Browns should be able to take care of business in this spot, especially on the ground. Cincinnati currently has the 26th ranked run defense, and if we take a deeper dive into their recent games, it would appear to be even worse. Last week, Cincinnati faced Oakland who ranks 30th in rushing efficiency. The week prior, they faced the Chargers without Melvin Gordon. The last true decent running opponent they faced was Denver in week 13, and Phillip Lindsay rushed for 157 yards, and 8.3 yards per carry.

I love Nick Chubb in DFS this week, not only for the previously stated matchup advantages, but give his, “down” week, last week. I put down in quotes because he still did rush for 100 yards, but it was the first time that he failed to find the end zone since late October. Cleveland opened this game as a seven point favorite, but was hit by sharp money, moving the line all the way out to ten. Given the potential game script, I would be surprised if Chubb failed to reach value in this spot.

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

ATL (32nd), DET (31st), OAK (30th), TB (29th), CIN (28th), KC (27th)

Tampa Bay ranks 29th in overall defensive efficiency 

After an embarrassing performance in Indy last week, Dallas will now host the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. With Philly nipping at their heals, Dallas is now in need of a big win on Sunday. They’ll have a positive matchup offensively, as they’ll take on a Buc’s defense that ranks 29th in overall efficiency. I’m not concerned with the performance last week, as I mentioned in last week’s version of this post, that Dallas was due for regression after some massive wins. They’ll now return home, which is an even bigger boost given their home vs. road splits.

As you can see in Warren‘s tweet, Dak’s splits are quite encouraging for this weekend.

Dak’s passing success rate at home: 53%, on the road: 47%

Dak’s passer rating at home: 109.1, on the road: 79.1

Dak’s explosive pass rate at home: 8%, on the road 6%

It would appear as if sharp money tends to have the same sentiment, as Dallas has moved off of a key of -7, to now -7.5. In addition, the total has moved from 46, to 48.5. I’ll be targeting the Dallas offense heavily in DFS this week. If you’re looking for a lower owned option from the Cowboys, consider Blake Jarwin. Jarwin has had seven targets in his last two games, and has had his snap count rate rise, to an average of 60.44% of snaps over the last two games.

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