NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday December 21 – THJ Day!

Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Thursday’s NBA DFS slate was an ugly one – not just because it was only a two game slate, but the fact that we did not have two huge injury items before lock that made it even more of a guessing game. DeAndre Jordan was a lock play for most but his in down downgrade to questionable left him only 10% owned in GPP’s for those who rolled the dice and got a near 50 burger at low ownership. The big difference maker was Lou Williams who was less than 1% owned and frankly not a player I anticipated would play – but there he was, active and dropping 40+ fantasy points in what ended up being a great late night game stack. If you went with James Harden and a Mavs/Clippers stack, it was likely a decent night for you!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Friday Night’s NBA DFS Slate…to be renamed THJ Day!

Before we jump into tonight’s NBA DFS slate, I am absolutely thrilled to bring you guys another Picks and Pivots Free Roll from FantasyDraft which is giving away ten tickets to Saturday’s NBA DFS contests including a $25 Pick and Roll ticket to the winner. Only 250 spots so get in early and spread the word in what is becoming an incredibly competitive contests each night!

I will be honest, I had to check the calendar as I thought Christmas Day was Tuesday but yet here we are on Friday, December 21st with a very 2Lock Christmas. Not only does Tim Hardaway Jr.  get to take place in a massive pace up, point boost game environment but he gets the added bonus of a REVENGE SPOT against his former Atlanta Hawks team.

I am a simple man. I love my wife, my kids, cold beer(s) and 15 minutes of bathroom time pre-lock every night. When it comes to DFS, I pretend to do analysis but really I just google which players birthdays are today (ps. it’s Shelvin Macks birthday today), who may have a bobble head giveaways that night and simply roster players with narratives.

So, I get to lock in THJ in a #RevengeNarrative spot and you are telling me FantasyDraft did not price him above LeBron or AD? How silly of them – I would roster him at $30K and not even think twice about it!

OK, let’s get serious for a moment – this Knicks/Hawks game is everything I look for when it comes to finding the NBA DFS game environments to attack. It has the second highest game total on the slate at 230, with the second fastest projected pace and you get two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA going against each other.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($14K) has excelled in this match-up already this season with 51 and 47 fantasy points, so although this price tag is high, he has shown he is more than capable of paying it off. The risk here is that this is a player that is now publicly stating he has plantar fasciitis and is going to work to play through it but that it becomes a pain tolerance thing more than anything. Paying $14K for a scoring dependent wing with a constant injury is the definition of risky and if THJ becomes chalky ( I could absolutely see that by the way), then I do think there is merit to fading him because we know THJ chalk rarely works out well.

If you are going to play THJ, and you know I will have at least one team with him, then I think you attack this spot with an all-out game stack. The Knicks have already ruled out Alonzo Trier and Mitchell Robinson for this game which means the starting five of Emmanuel Mudiay, THJ, Kevin Knox, Noah Vonleh and Enes Kanter will be leaned on once again to play heavy minutes in a game where they see the biggest point and pace boost of any team on the slate. I think you can make a case to stack all five of the Knicks tonight and run it back with some Hawks exposure.

John Collins ($14.1K) has gone for 40+ fantasy points in six of his last seven games, leading the team with a 29% usage rate and 1.3 FP/M output and now gets to face one of the worst defensive interiors in the league. Pairing Collins with one or both of Trae Young and Kent Bazemore gives you a nice mini-stack here in what may end up being the best game stacking spot on the slate.

The pricing on this game is really what stands out as no player is more expensive than $14K, with Collins/THJ being the two “big spends” so you can game stack this one on FantasyDraft without much of an issue and still have decent salary ($10K+ for the one-off play from another game).

NBA DFS – Enough THJ Love for One Day:

I am well aware that there are nine other games on the slate so rather than simply focusing in on my boy THJ – I owe it you all to at least pretend to look elsewhere tonight.

The marquee game on this slate is the Lakers-Pelicans – the late night hammer, the lone 10:30PM EST game with a slate leading total (234) and fastest projected pace on the slate. With stars capable of breaking the slate, this feels like a game where you simply have to have exposure but the issue is, at first look – there are far more questions than answers in this game.

Start with the Lakers – who look like they could be close to having a full squad as both Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram are near a return which would put a cap on guys like Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma and even to an extent, take away from the upside of LeBron James. I say that sort of tongue in cheek as LeBron still has a 35%+ usage rate with Rondo/Ingram on the floor this year but he does see a slight decline in his FP/M output.

The Pelicans side is just a total mess – we know Elfrid Payton is out but that is really all we know – Anthony Davis, Julius Randle and Nikola Mirotic are all questionable to play tonight with illness/injury designations. Mirotic is officially doubtful so he seems most likely to miss this game while Randle despite the ankle injury has to be licking his chops to get his revenge in against his former Lakers team in LA. My guess is we get the Mirotic/Randle news before lock but because AD is questionable with an illness, there is a very real risk we do not have that news before lock which makes this a spot that is nearly impossible to predict.

Jrue Holiday ($16.6K) becomes one of the most intriguing plays on this slate as he would become a near must play if the Pelicans front line is short-handed as he would be asked to carry the load offensively for New Orleans and at this price point, has clear 50-60 point upside.

Telling you this is a great game to target is easy, and frankly identifying the players would seem easy but without knowing who is IN/OUT makes this a spot we just have to watch as the day goes on without getting too married to any specific guys.

The fact that the Vegas line/total is out (Lakers favored by 4-5) and we have this game on ESPN, makes me think that AD ends up playing and if that is the case – you can certainly make the argument for a AD-LeBron mini-stack, which although expensive, would still leave you over $10K per player on FantasyDraft to build around them and they have arguably the highest floor/ceiling combination of any duo on this slate. Keep an eye on the news here and adjust accordingly.

NBA DFS – Injuries and Values:

We already have some early injury news that opens up value across the slate and makes it easy to afford guys like LeBron/AD if that is the route you choose. The Raptors have already ruled out Kyle Lowry for tonight which means we can lock in Fred Van Vleet ($10.9K) for another start with 30+ minutes against a Cavaliers defense that is ranked 29th in Def-Eff against the PG position. Serge Ibaka remains questionable which means we could get another Greg Monroe ($8.9K) value start against the Cavs team without Tristan Thompson in the middle.

Kawhi Leonard ($17.4K) is certainly not a value play in terms of price, but he seems to be under-priced considering his role without Lowry on the floor. Kawhi has gone for 52 and 58 points in his last two games which means his “average” performance returns 3.1x at this price and against a Cavs defense that is bottom 5 in the NBA over the last 10-15 games. The only caveat here – this game has the lowest projected pace with a 12 point spread for the Raptors at home – so the question is – will Kawhi get his full complement of run?

The Celtics are going to be extremely short-handed in the front-court tonight against the Bucks as we already know Al Horford and Aron Baynes are out tonight. Both Celtics bigs sat out recently against the Pelicans and Bulls, so we have some recent idea of how the rotations would look as Daniel Theis and Robert Williams both saw the biggest boosts. Theis had a monster 54 fantasy point outing against the Bulls before struggling against the Pelicans where Robert Williams came in and dropped 28 fantasy points.

In the last game against the Suns, Theis got the start against the Suns in the second half when Baynes was forced out earlier due to injury so it would seem likely he gets the starting nod tonight against the Bucks and with both Celtics healthy bigs being priced under $8K, they make for a nice salary saving target.

Lastly, with Jeff Teague already ruled out tonight, I expect a lot of love for Derrick Rose ($13.5K) who gets an exploitable match-up against the Spurs who have struggled all year against PG’s. However, rather than going for Rose, you can play a guy in Josh Okogie ($6.3K) who is priced just above the stone minimum and has played 27 and 31 minutes in the last two games with Teague sidelined.

Okogie is getting significant run alongside Rose, and based off the rotations looks like someone the Wolves have no issue relying on as one of the first wings off the bench. Okogie checked in mid-way through the 1st Quarter last game and played the entire rest of the first half and checked in at the 5 minute mark in the 3rd Quarter and played 8 minutes in the 4th Quarter. If you need a punt play, Okogie seems under-priced for this role with Teague off the court.

NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:

The Nets-Pacers game tonight is essentially the polar opposite of the Knicks/Hawks – as we have what should be a great real life game but an uninspiring NBA DFS spot to build around. The Nets and Pacers are two of the hottest teams in the Easter Conference, both winning 7 of their last 10 games and with only a 2 point spread, Vegas is expecting this to be a far cry from the 20 point blowout earlier this season.

When looking for game stacks, I expect most will look to the Hawks/Knicks or try and go Stars/Scrubs in Lakers/Pelicans which will leave a game like Brooklyn and Indiana with its low total and slow pace, far off peoples radar – but should it?

The Pacers have now had five games under their belt since the return of their star Victor Oladipo ($14.9K) and despite a 50+ point games against the Knicks, the immediate returns have been underwhelming for Dipo in this recent stretch which has kept his price at a reasonable level. Oladipo still has a 29% plus usage rate during these five games and the shot attempts remain at a team high level (15 per game), but the issue has been efficiency, shooting just 40% during that time. Dipo is averaging 45 FP/G against the Nets in his last five games against them and my guess is he goes widely ignored tonight.

Myles Turner ($13.7K) gets “Centers Against Brooklyn” tonight and is coming off back to back double-doubles with 9 blocked shots in those two games. The Pacers stack, much like we made the case with the Knicks/Hawks is interesting because the price points are reasonable and you can lock in a starting unit with players like Thaddeus Young and Darren Collison who are locked into major roles and minutes security.

The Nets side is always a bit more volatile but this team is rolling right now and I think despite the difficult match-up, it is hard to ignore the upside of a player like D’Angelo Russell ($12.7K) who has gone for 50+ in two of his last three games. With the Pacers having a big front court, Jarrett Allen ($10.3K) is going to be forced into major minutes and he remains one of my favorite plays on FantasyDraft where you can roster multiple centers and he never seems to be priced up.

NBA DFS – Another Pivot Game Stack:

If the Nets/Pacers game stack isn’t quite catching your fancy and you are looking for a game with a high total and a fast pace – can we stay up top in Vegas with a Bucks/Celtics game that may get a bit over-looked?

With a 223 total that makes it the third highest scoring game on the slate and the third fastest projected – it gives us an interesting pivot off the Pelicans/Lakers and Hawks/Knicks in a few unique ways.

First – we get star power in this game with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kyrie Irving who each went for 50+ the first time these two teams met. On a slate with LeBron and potentially AD, this Giannis/Kyrie stack could be a way to capture upside at lower ownership and a fraction of the price.

Secondly, one of the reasons we like the Hawks/Knicks game stack is because the price points allow us to stack up the mid-tier. If you lock in Giannis and Kyrie and plug in the previously mentioned value of Daniel Thies, you have $11.4K per player remaining in your build for 5 roster spots.

Take a look at the secondary pieces here – Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton sit in the mid $12K range while the Boston has no other player besides Kyrie priced over $12K.

With Horford and Baynes off the court this season, it has been predictably the Kyrie Irving show with a 33.5% usage rate and 1.4 FP/M but its guys like Marcus Smart, Marcus Morris and Jayson Tatum who have all seen 2-4% usage boosts and Morris/Tatum are well over a FP/M in production.

Morris has been ruled out which means Smart, Tatum and Gordon Hayward will see all the run they can handle and I think you can make the argument for all of them as great plays – both in a game stack or as one-offs due to their cheap prices.

If AD ends up playing, my guess is that AD/LeBron become the preferred spend up options which could leave Giannis a tad under-owned.

The secondary pieces here are actually cheaper than the Knicks/Hawks plays and my guess is they end up being more popular. As an example – it is cheaper to stack Kyrie, Bledsoe, Middleton and Tatum than it is to stack THJ, Trae Young, John Collins and Enes Kanter. I think you can make an argument the Celtics/Bucks player pool is simply more talented, has a similar game environment although not “as good” and will likely be lower owned.

Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

This sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and is NOT meant to be a plug and play lineup as the logic is meant for tournament play. 

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G: Tim Hardaway Jr.

G: Tim Hardaway Jr.

G: Tim Hardaway Jr.

F: Tim Hardaway Jr.

F: Tim Hardaway Jr.

F: Tim Hardaway Jr.

U: Tim Hardaway Jr.

U: Tim Hardaway Jr.

Slate Overview:  Seems pretty straightforward huh?

In all seriousness, giving you a sample lineup today feels like I would be doing you a disservice because without the Pelicans/Lakers news – telling you to plant your flag anywhere else this early could put you in a bad spot if you are not willing to be flexible with NO/LA.

The Knicks/Hawks looks to be an elite game stacking spot but it is also one that could completely sink your night. Anytime you stack bad NBA teams, you are playing with fire – and for as much as I love the spot, there are plenty of paths to this game underwhelming and if it becomes chalky, which I could see, then I do think pivoting off it is viable.

The Nets/Pacers is a game where you take the opposite approach – you say forget Vegas and high pace games and simply build around what should be a great basketball game with a close spread between two of the best teams right now in the Eastern Conference.

The Bucks/Celtics gives you a but of both worlds – the high Vegas/Pace data with two good basketball teams.

I think the point here is – there are SO many routes to go and gauging ownership may end up being as critical as anything.

With so much value already and the slate being this large, this is a day where I am building player pools and ideas during the day and adjusting as I go with a specific eye on the late night hammer. Have fun with this slate, play Tim Hardaway Jr. recklessly and tweet me when hes 0-12 and has sunk your line-up because we all know its coming…or applaud me when he drops another 50 burger and wins you the slate. Either way – it is THJ Day.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!