DraftKings NBA Picks December 22: We can't fade Harden

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers guards Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans during a 112-104 Laker win at Staples Center on December 21, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks December 22: We can’t fade Harden with Paul out! Find a way to get him in your lineups.

We have a modest seven game DraftKings NBA Saturday, but only six of them are in the main tournament. Denver and the Clippers tilt early, which means we miss out on all the great Denver value and at LouWill overperforming for his price again. We still have three superstars on this slate and five more priced over $9,000, so there is plenty to choose from.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,100): Westbrook has four straight games of more than 52 DraftKings points, but Utah held him to 47.5 DraftKings points just 12 days ago. This is not an overly large slate, but if we are pretty much forced to choose between Westbrook and Harden, the answer is simple. If it’s not, you’re not paying enough attention. Harden is by far the better play, and not just because of the matchup.

Stephen Curry ($9,500): Dallas is still thin at guard, which is good news for Curry’s prospects. Curry’s price is getting back to the point where we have to make a conscious decision on whether to use him or not. It’s not automatic. I will say that this is a really good matchup against Dallas because they may be able to do a pretty good job on KD as well just like Utah did.

Honorable Mention:

Fred VanVleet ($5,900): Fred is one of the few healthy bodies that the Raptors are going to have in this game. There is a ton of value for Toronto. They stand to play about eight guys regardless of what the score is. For that reason I prefer Wright, but VanVleet is still going to see enough minutes to matter.

Tyler Johnson ($5,100): I have no problems with playing Johnson even though he isn’t starting. Johnson is far more valuable as the go to guy on the second unit than being out there with the first time. He is going to see plenty of minutes with Dragic out because the Heat need all the scoring they can get. Johnson has topped 5x value in tow of the last three games and should have no problems making it three of four.

Dark Horses:

Delon Wright ($4,000): Wright has played well helping fill the minutes of Lowry off the bench. He has at least 5x value in all three games, and should have no issues hitting that against the Sixers. The nature of this game will determine Wright’s actual value. However, with so many pieces out of the lineup, Wright is going to have no choice but to play pretty big minutes. He racked up 32 DraftKings points in 38 minutes against Denver last weekend. If he gets that kind of run again, he can destroy value.

Derrick White ($3,700): This is a much better matchup for White now that Paul is out. Honestly, White did very well against the Rockets anyway. In two games against Houston this year, White has 64.75 DraftKings points in 62 minutes over two games. White could be a great value tonight on a night where we’re going to need some.

My pick: White(PG); VanVleet(PG), Wright(G), Johnson(UTIL)

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 19: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns dribbles against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on December 19, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,600): There’s no part of me that wants to fade Harden right now. Not even a little bit. With the news that CP3 is going to be out for a couple of weeks, that makes a pretty good matchup one of the best of the year. Harden averaged almost 55 DraftKings points per game against the Spurs last year. With Paul out, Harden’s usage goes through the roof. His ceiling might be triple digits. I don’t see a good reason to fade him here. In five games without Paul this year, Harden has averaged 68 DraftKings points per game.

Devin Booker ($8,800): Shooting guards, or guards of all variety for that matter, have had their way with Washington lately. Booker has at least 47 DraftKings points in his three games back since missing time with a sore wrist. It seems to be fine, which means the Wizards wont be. This is a smash spot for Booker. I wouldn’t fade Harden for him, but I could use him as Robin to Harden’s Batman.

Honorable Mention:

Bradley Beal ($8,300): I’m not crazy about this matchup, but we really can’t ignore the level that Beal is playing at this year. Beal has at least 40 DraftKings points in eight of the last night games and has topped 45 in seven of those. Booker’s defense is much improved this year, but can he really slow Beal down? I don’t know that he can. Beal could be a solid pivot off of Booker.

Klay Thompson ($6,400): Thompson racked up 36.25 DraftKings points on Dallas in the first meeting. Like I said with Curry, the Dallas guards are still not all that healthy. I much prefer Curry’s matchup, but something can be said for Thompson in the mid range here. I prefer Thompson in cash games, but he is a solid option in GPP’s tonight as well.

Eric Gordon ($6,100): Gordon is dangerous with CP3 out as well. Gordon has averaged 34 DraftKings points per game in the five tilts with Paul out. The best part is that you can soak up all of Paul’s usage with Harden and Gordon quite easily in the same lineup at much cheaper than Paul usually is.

Dark Horses:

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,200): This looks cheap for Brogdon. He is one of the more consistent producers around right now, and is guaranteed at least 30 minutes per game. The Miami backcourt is still two parts beaten up and one part ineffective, so Brogdon will get plenty of chances to put up big numbers here.

J.J. Barea ($4,700): Barea had a strong 33.75 DraftKings points against the Clippers on Thursday. He saw an uptick in minutes with the continued ineffectiveness of Brunson, and that could continue tonight. Dallas will be paced up again facing the Warriors. 6x value should be fairly easy to come by for J.J. tonight.

Jamal Crawford ($3,600): The Suns dumping Austin Rivers means that Crawford’s role of first guard off the bench is very safe. Melton is doing nothing to take that from him. Crawford’s ability to hit a lot of shots off the bench captures the interests of DFS players, but he isn’t going to put up any really big numbers. Though he hits double digits in DraftKings points, Crawford rarely eclipses 6x value.

My pick: Harden(PG), Booker(G); Harden(SG), Gordon(F)

SACRAMENTO, CA – DECEMBER 19: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder reacts after making a three-point basket against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center on December 19, 2018 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($8,500): This is going to be a strange one here. Lowry is already ruled out. Nick Nurse has strongly hinted that Kawhi is still not ready for back to backs. Add to that JoVal being out and Ibaka questionable, and you wonder who’s left for Toronto. That makes me want to fade this entire game. It smells like a blowout, so I would probably limit exposure to the Philly studs as well.

Paul George ($9,400): I do understand why people are going to shy away from George here. To me, that’s one more reason to play him. George punished Utah for 48.75 DraftKings points in just 30 minutes in the first meeting. Utah is still one of the better defensive teams, but with what George did the first time and the way he has been playing lately, George isn’t an automatic fade for me.

Honorable Mention:

Luka Doncic ($8,100): Each time the Mavs play, I express my hesitance to play Doncic at the price, but end up doing it anyway. On a night like tonight, we can get away with the fade, but do we want to? Doncic racked up 40.75 DraftKings points in the first game against the Warriors. That is exactly 5x value. However, Doncic has 154 DraftKings points over the last three games with Dennis Smith out. As long as Smith remains sidelined, Doncic is worth this price.

T.J. Warren ($6,700): The Wizards have one of the worst defenses in the league, so it’s all systems go on Warren. The Suns have stabilized a lot just with the return of Booker and Warren. The rotations are relatively safe now. Warren is having the best season of his career. Ride it here against the Wizards.

Dark Horses:

Trevor Ariza ($5,300): Does Ariza really want revenge on the Suns? Was he there long enough? I don’t know that it matters. Otto Porter is still out, so Ariza is going to play big minutes once again. If we have a guy playing 38 minutes at this price, I take notice. This is another smash spot for Ariza, making him a superb value pick.

Derrick Jones ($4,700): Jones just keeps putting up strong numbers off the bench. Jones has at least 24 DraftKings points in each of the last six games. It’s unclear whether the Heat will continue to ride Jones since he was out of the rotation again until the recent rash of injuries. However, as long as the minutes are there, Jones is a strong value pick.

OG Anunoby ($3,500): Since Anunoby is in print, you should probably fade him. Seriously though, there are 240 minutes to go around between the five starter slots, and Toronto has roughly eight healthy guys to take these minutes. Anunoby racked up 34 DraftKings points last night in just 22 minutes. What can he do if he can stay on the floor?

My pick: Ariza(SF), Anunoby(F); Anunoby(SF)

MILWAUKEE, WI – APRIL 20: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks over Aron Baynes #46 of the Boston Celtics during the second half of game three of round one of the Eastern Conference playoffs at the Bradley Center on April 20, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900): Giannis was a bit of a disappointment last night. I know, that’s hard to say from a guy that hits 52, but with everything in his favor, I was expecting more. That said, I have no problems going back to the well here. Giannis has at least 50 DraftKings points in eight of the last ten games. The bad news? The two that he missed were under 40.

Kevin Durant ($9,200): There are a lot of mouths to feed for the Warriors, and Curry is the mother robin. He chews up the ball and spits it out to his teammates in the best position for them to succeed. Just like the baby robins. Back to the mouth feeding thing. Everyone outside of Curry on this team is a risk, but Durant’s price is reasonable enough to consider on a smaller slate and against a Dallas front that is not in the best shape right now. (Sorry Dirk).

Honorable Mention:

Draymond Green ($6,300): Green stuffs stat sheets, so his floor is usually pretty stable compared to his teammates. Still, a stable floor doesn’t mean he always hits value. This is a pretty good matchup for Green, but his ceiling is capped for much the same reason that the floor is stable. For this reason, I view Green as more of a cash game play.

Pascal Siakam ($6,000): The Sixers are historically weak defending the power forward anyway. With the Raptors so short handed, Siakam is the de facto stud on this team. All for just $6,000! I don’t really like the Philly side of this in case of a blowout, but the Raptors have had the best bench in the league over the last two years. This team is scrappy enough to keep this close.

Dark Horses:

P.J. Tucker ($4,600): Tucker flies under the radar on this team. With Paul and Harden around, that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Everyone on this team is dangerous offensively, but Tucker’s value lies in his rebounding ability as well. Tucker has at least 5x value in four straight games. With Paul out of the picture, Tucker could see a slight uptick in production.

D.J. Wilson ($3,600): The Wilson train was gaining steam until he derailed last night. I can accept that. It was against a depleted, but still tough, Boston front. I’m okay going back to the value well here against Miami. That said, there are better options at this price tonight. I wouldn’t use Wilson unless you already have OG in your lineup.

My pick: Siakam(PF); Siakam(PF)

DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Centers

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,600): Toronto has done a pretty good job on Embiid so far this year. A pretty big part of that is Ibaka, so if Ibaka is out, Embiid could be in line for a huge game. Surprisingly enough, the spread is only 4.5 points and the over/under is one of the best on this slate. If this stays close, Embiid has some of the best upside out there.

Clint Capela ($7,800): In two games against the Spurs this year, Capela has 94.25 DraftKings points against them. The trickle down effect from the Paul injury usually doesn’t make it down to Capela. He averages 39 DraftKings points per game with Paul out. Capela’s average on the season is 39.4. Just treat this as another good matchup for Capela.

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Honorable Mention:

DeAndre Ayton ($7,200): We are finally starting to see the upside that Ayton has. He has at least 35 DraftKings points in seven of the last eight games. The only team to hold him under was Dallas. This is a Washington team that really doens’t have a center. Good luck Markieff. You’re going to need it.

Serge Ibaka ($5,700): There is no official word on Ibaka, but if he plays, this is a nice matchup with Embiid. Embiid is not much of a defender, so I’d take a run at him with Serge if you need the value, but only if Ibaka is completely healthy. If he is limited, let this one alone.

Dark Horses:

Greg Monroe ($4,300): This all depends on the status of Ibaka. If Ibaka is in, then I’m out on Monroe, even with the rest of the team shorthanded. Even if Ibaka is out, I’m not crazy about Monroe. He did a lot when forced into starting position last season, but he hasn’t really been given the chance even when Toronto doesn’t have much else to use in the middle. This isn’t a foolproof value pick by any means.

Richaun Holmes ($3,800): Holmes is still one of the best per minute players in the league, he just can’t do it for long periods of time. Part of that is because they are going to give Ayton run. Another part is that Holmes likes to foul.

My pick: Ayton(C), Holmes(UTIL); Capela(C)

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