FanDuel NFL GPP Pivots: Week 16 – Redemption in Dallas?

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots

Welcome back the Week 16 edition of FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots! As always, I’m looking to give our FantasyCPR readers some GPP pivots off the chalk for your Week 16 FanDuel NFL DFS contests!

Week 16 brings us new challenges, as FanDuel pricing makes it harder to roster all the optimal plays.  Late in the season, we see cheap players emerge as chalk as DFS players are desperate for salary cap relief. To me, it’s all about identifying the “good chalk” from the “bad chalk.”  If a player is projecting to be highly owned, you don’t have to fade them unless you don’t really don’t believe in the spot.

What you need to find is the low-owned player or stack that goes off and shoots you ahead of the competition. Pairing low-owned plays with chalkier plays is usually the best strategy when making those GPP rosters.

I’m going to go position by position and try to identify the chalk plays at each position and then recommend my preferred pivot(s). The goal here is to try to find a lower-owned play that outperforms the chalkier play, giving you leverage over the field in your GPPs.

I’ve used a number of different sites when trying to identify ownership, but this year I’m using FanShare Sports as my main source of information.  They do a really great job of tracking how much buzz players are getting throughout the week and their ownership projections have really helped me identify the chalk on a weekly basis. Check them out, they’ve got free information and their premium product is also really affordable.

Without any further ado, let’s get into the picks!

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Quarterback

Chalk: Nick Foles, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees

Pivot: Dak Prescott (7300)

I don’t mind Nick Foles for cash games as his salary is so low that it allows you to fit in the stud backs that you want for their floors, but we have to acknowledge that a poor game from against Houston’s pass rush is well within the range of outcomes.

Right now I’m seeing Prescott as only the fourth highest in projected ownership, but that could obviously change by Sunday if he becomes a trendy pick among touts. He’s just way too cheap at this price tag for the amazing matchup that he has against the Tampa Bay secondary.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been leaky all season long and rostering Dak either naked or stacking him with a pass-catcher is one way to get Dallas exposure without playing a chalky Ezekiel Elliot.  Of course, you could do a full-on Dallas assault by using a Dak-Zeke-Cooper trifecta as we’ve seen that combo work before.

A dual-threat like Prescott always gives us a ton of upside at the position as he could easily throw for 2-3 scores and run one in with his legs. Those rushing touchdowns are worth more than passing TDs and we often see the QB1 end up being a quarterback who ended up getting a TD on the ground each week.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Running Backs

Chalk: Marlon Mack, Ezekiel Elliot, Christian McCaffrey

Pivots:  Nick Chubb (7900), Dalvin Cook (7100)

Mack is just too cheap at only 7k and is going to be a staple of my cash game rosters, but you can make the case that you don’t need to pay up for elite backs like Zeke or McCaffrey this weekend, and there’s a lot of uncertainty around Carolina right now with Cam Newton shut down for the season.

Nick Chubb has been really good since taking over as the workhorse back in Cleveland. Last week he hit 100 yards on 20 carries but didn’t get in the end zone for the first time in 5 weeks. He smashed the Bengals last month as he piled up 128 total yards and scored twice and this week will get them at home. The Browns are 10 point favorites at home and so Chubb is in a prime spot here to get a lot of work against a bad run defense. He’s a great bargain under 8k and projected to be lower owned than the three chalkiest backs.

Dalvin Cook has really settled in nicely as the lead back in Minnesota now that he’s fully healthy and last week had his best performance of the season with a big day against the Dolphins.  Cook had 20 touches last week and didn’t even have to finish out the game as the Vikings got up big. This week he gets the Lions, a team he averaged 8.9 yards per carry against in the first meeting between these teams. He was chalky last week but is looking like he could be a lot sneakier this week. Stacking Cook with the Vikings defense is also a nice potential correlation play.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Wide Receivers

Chalk: Robby Anderson, DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffrey

Chalk Robby Anderson! Who would have thought we would see that this season. With a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball, what could go wrong?

Pivots: Amari Cooper (7000), T.Y. Hilton (7700)

Amari Cooper let a lot of people down last week as chalk but has a great chance to redeem himself this week against the Tampa secondary. His price is still very easy to fit into builds and recency bias should be in full effect based on his box score from last week. He’s projecting to be lower owned than he probably should be in this spot. I love the Dak-Cooper stack this week and I’ll be overweight on this Cowboys’ passing attack.

Perhaps the questionable tag on T.Y. Hilton is holding down his ownership down, but he’s looking like he will play on Sunday and has massive potential here against a Giants secondary that ranks last against the WR1 position.  Hilton was limited to only 5 catches in a tough matchup with Dallas last week but was rolling for four straight weeks to the tune of 33 catches on 44 targets over that stretch. I like Andrew Luck to get Hilton involved early and often in this game and Hilton to do some serious damage against the Giants secondary.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Tight Ends

Chalk: Evan Engram, Zach Ertz, Eric Ebron

There’s nothing wrong with these three pass-catchers, but the three of them are going to soak up close to 40% of the ownership at the position this week. If you’re looking to pivot, consider these two cheaper options.

Pivots: Austin Hooper (5300), Blake Jarwin (4700)

Hooper is a risky play here, considering that he’s been dealing with injuries and coming off his first goose egg of the season last week against Arizona. But this is a spot that I can’t ignore as Carolina has been bad against slot receivers and tight ends all year.  Hooper had been consistently getting 5 or more targets before last week and I think he’s got a great chance of catching 5-6 balls here against the Panthers and finding the end zone.

Jarwin could gain some steam as a play by Sunday, especially with Dallas putting Geoff Swaim on IR late in the week. He was targeted 7 times last week and caught 4 passes for 45 yards. All he needs to do is something similar this week and find the end zone and we are playing with house money. I like using him stacked with Dak and I’m even considering a Dak-Cooper-Jawin stack as well.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Defense

Chalk: ???????

Will there be a chalky defense this week? Right now, FanShare projections show that 8 different teams that could all fall between 8-10% ownership. With ownership so spread out, I’m going to focus on one defense that could possibly be overlooked.

Pivots: Minnesota (4600)

I’m not seeing a lot of love around the industry for the Vikings defense this week and I’m not sure why. This Detroit offense isn’t anything special, and I think the Vikings should be playing in front for most of this game, which would force the Lions into a pass-heavy game script.

More dropbacks from Matthew Stafford means more opportunity for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions. The Vikings were elite at rushing the QB last week, racking up 9 sacks against Miami and also sacked Stafford 10 times earlier this season while holding the Lions to 9 points. I don’t mind paying up for the Vikes defense here and like I mentioned earlier, they make an elite correlational play with Dalvin Cook as an RB-Defense pairing.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Value Plays

Chalk: Kalen Ballage, Dante Pettis, Elijah McGuire, Jaylen Samuels

Pivots: Chris Hogan (5300)

Is Hogan ready to re-emerge as a relevant piece of the Patriots offense? This week sets up well for Hogan, as Josh Gordon is no longer with the team and the Pats face off against Buffalo at home. I’m not into revenge narratives, but I do like the fact that Hogan is in line for more snaps and likely more targets with Gordon out. Most DFS players will roster Julian Edelman or Rob Gronkowski and I’m seeing some sub 5% ownership projected for Hogan here. We know what he can do when he gets targets and he even had a big play last week as he caught a long TD from Brady.

Calvin Ridley (5500)

Remember when Ridley was breaking slates with multiple TD games back in the beginning of the year? That seems like a long time ago, but he’s had a few good games since then and is still playing the majority of snaps on offense for Atlanta even if Julio Jones has been more targets.  He’s so cheap here and in a great spot against the Panthers, a team that is now out of playoff contention and has been getting burned by solid passing attacks like the Falcons. Ridley’s 5-64 line against Carolina in week 2 was when he first burst on the scene and I think he’s capable of that type of output here this week.

FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots: Slate Overview and Sample Lineup

I want to stress that you don’t need to have a low-owned player in every roster spot. Some of the names I mentioned as chalk, I will be playing alongside some of the pivots that I wrote up. It’s all about leveraging the chalk on any given week and finding the right balance of chalk and contrarian plays.

Stacking is important in any DFS sport, but especially in NFL DFS. I try to build my QB-WR  stack first in many cases and then fill in around it. This week it’s all about the Dak-Amari stack for me and the Dallas passing game.

If you’re good, you can build in multiple mini-stacks into the same lineup so that you have several different plays that are highly correlated. This week’s sample lineup has some correlation with Cook-Minnesota tandem in addition to the Dallas stack. I also have Mack and Hilton both in my lineup, which I think gives me a chance at getting most of the Indianapolis touchdowns.

Remember that the sample lineup is purely for illustrative purposes and it’s not necessarily a plug-and-play lineup. I just like showing how the builds come together to give you an idea of how to start building yours.

QB: Dak Prescott (7300)
RB: Dalvin Cook (7100)
RB: Nick Chubb (7900)
WR: Amari Cooper (7000)
WR: T.Y. Hilton (7700)
WR: Robert Foster (6000)
TE: Austin Hooper (5300)
FLEX: Marlon Mack (7000)
DEF: Minnesota (4600)

That’s all I got guys, I hope this article helps you build some GPP winners this weekend. As always, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS with questions and comments and continue to look for in-depth NBA and NFL analysis from me and the rest of the FantasyCPR team