NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday December 22
Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Let’s just say it – Friday Night’s NBA DFS was a total mess. Looking back one day later I am sure none of us are shocked that Anthony Davis and LeBron James led the slate in scoring in what was the highest paced and highest expected scoring game on the slate but the fact that they were both under 15% owned as a result of GTD tags due to illness left this slate in a state of flux all day. The questionable tags for both stars left guys like Julius Randle to be owned at nearly 40% and meant if you rolled the dice that AD and LeBron would play, you likely had a monster night with their minimal ownership in tournaments.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Saturday Slate:
What better way to kick off your weekend than with another Picks and Pivots Free Roll from our friends at FantasyDraft – another 10 tickets are up for grabs for Sunday’s slate with the 1st place winner taking home a $25 Pick and Roll ticket. Get in on these – spread the word and let’s start our weekend off right!
There are some overarching themes on this slate that are going to drive our roster builds and will likely be the first decision points you need to make when building your NBA DFS rosters so let’s dive in:
Is anyone playing for the Raptors?
Nurse says that there's a chance Green and Lowry play tomorrow, but it's not a great chance. Ibaka not mentioned but he's listed as questionable.
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) December 22, 2018
The biggest injury news here is that Toronto will be without, well, basically everyone. The Raptors have already ruled OUT Jonas Valanciunas and Kawhi Leonard while all of Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Danny Green missed Friday’s games and are questionable to play this evening.
The fact that the Raptors are only 4.5 point underdogs heading to Philly to take on a fully healthy Sixers squad is kind of mind-blowing. Everything would tell you this game has massive blowout risk but the fact that Vegas thinks it will stay close seems to tell us otherwise.
I think there are a few ways to approach this game. First, is to simply use the value on Toronto as one-off plays as there is value in guys like Delon Wright, OG Anunoboy and Greg Monroe who could all push for major minutes. Last night against the Cavs, the Raptors used Pascal Siakam at the 5 but tonight against Joel Embiid and the Sixers, they will likely have no choice but to use Greg Monroe assuming that Serge Ibaka misses this game.
If you take Lowry, Green, Ibaka, Kawhi and Jonas off the court this year, Monroe has put up a FP/M in a 60+ minute sample size and should see 25 minutes easily in a game where they will need his size to combat Embiid.
Fred VanVleet and Siakam are the two “safest” plays and priced just above $11K on FantasyDraft there is ample profit potential on both players but I do worry about this game staying close despite what Vegas is telling us.
If you think this game can stay close, the best way to attack it may be with a full on game stack.
Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler can be paired easily with VanVleet/Siakam and all the value here without much of an issue. In fact, there is even some potential value on the Philly side of this game as Wilson Chandler has already been ruled out which means that Mike Muscala could draw another start in his absence.
On FantasyDraft as an example – you can build the following:
- Simmons, Embiid, Butler and Muscala
- Siakam, VanVleet and Monroe
- $14.4K remaining for your last player
There is obviously a ton of news we need in this game that could alter how we approach this spot. If all the Raptors end up sitting, would the Sixers give one of their big three a rest game and open up even more value? Do guys like Lowry and Ibaka end up playing and mucking up this whole thing?
This is less of a core spot for me to start the day and one I am fine simply reacting to as we get news.
NBA DFS – All the Beard:
Although the Raptors-Sixers game has the most news in terms of sheer volume, the biggest and most impactful news is that Chris Paul will be sidelined for the Rockets which enacts NBA DFS Commandment #1 – Thou Shalt Not Fade James Harden when CP3 is out.
Harden ($20.8K) is the most expensive player on the slate but I would argue he is not expensive enough and needs to be the first player in your builds. This season with Paul, Carmelo Anthony and James Ennis all off the court, Harden’s numbers are just frankly insane – a 47.7% usage rate while putting up over 2 FP/M.
I do not care if Harden is 90% owned tonight in tournaments, that just means 10% of people are insane. This is a lock play – you do not get cute, you play him and move on.
With Paul heading to the sidelines last game against Miami, it was Gerald Green ($7.5K) who stepped into the starting lineup alongside Harden, Tucker, Gordon and Capela which is a lineup I think we see Houston roll out again tonight. Tucker has been priced up to $9K while Gordon is nearly $12K on FantasyDraft so I will gladly take the savings and roll with Gerald Green who has the high volume scoring ability to crush at this price point.
Is Harden the only stud we should prioritize?
With the focus at the high-end being on Harden, and rightfully so, I wonder what that will mean for the other high-end stars like Embiid or Giannis in terms of ownership. Although I certainly can argue for either, I want to find a way tonight to pair Harden with Russell Westbrook ($19.6K) who takes on the Utah Jazz in my favorite game of the night.
The 218 total is not going to know anyone’s socks off here but we have a game that is set at a pick ’em and has the fastest projected pace of any game on the slate. Over the last 10 games, the Thunder are playing at the second fastest pace in the NBA and we just saw this game play out on December 10 where the Thunder put up 122 points on the Jazz in a 9 point victory.
Westbrook had a rather pedestrian triple-double in that game, good for “only” 43 points and we tend to take for granted how often Westbrook racks up these statlines as he has triple-doubles now in five of his last eight games.
Westbrook will be a fraction of the ownership of Harden and I certainly do not think you should play him OVER the Beard, but I think you make the case to play him alongside him – locking in the two highest ceiling plays on the slate.
The Utah Jazz see the biggest pace boost of any team on the slate and the price points are reasonable enough you can run back Westbrook with some Utah plays on the other side. Donovan Mitchell ($12.8K) is my prime target here in the back court as he is averaging 36 minutes and 37 fantasy points per game over his last three outings.
Rudy Gobert ($13.5K) put up 13/14 against OKC in their previous meeting which was good for 35 fantasy points and has been on a low-key tear over his most recent stretch. In his last ten games, excluding a 2 minute ejection against Houston, Gobert is averaging 43.8 fantasy points per game and has gone for 40+ fantasy points in six of those 10 games.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
The below is a sample lineup only and is meant to be an illustrative example and not a plug and play lineup.
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G: James Harden
F/C: Rudy Gobert
F/C: OG Anunoboy
F/C: Mike Muscala
UTIL: Gerald Green
UTIL: Fred VanVleet
Slate Overview: There are a few overarching themes on this slate that are going to drive my player pool – first and foremost is locking in James Harden with CP3 sidelined. Secondly, is looking to the Sixers and Raptors for some punt value plays with 30+ minute upside which gives us elite point per dollar upside and allows us to easily achieve our final goal – pairing Harden with Westbrook and a mini Utah/OKC stack. Keep an eye on the injury news specifically in Toronto/Philadelphia, get in tonight’s FREE ROLL and let’s get our weekend started off with a bang!
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