Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Sunday December 23
It might be NFL Sunday, but we have nine games on tap of NBA action and we’re here to find the Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and fades on this slate!
I’d be lying if I said I was terribly happy with the results from yesterday’s Fantasy Basketball Top Plays. Sure, there were some good ones like Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton but that was balanced out by some whiffs like Ricky Rubio and Paul George. In all fairness, the Suns were helped by three overtimes and that brings me to my first point. I want nothing to do with them on a back to back situation. Booker and T.J. Warren played 50+ minutes while Ayton and Kelly Oubre played 39 and 42 each. That’s a hard pass for me so let’s see what else this slate holds for us!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – De’Aaron Fox, Kings
Let’s see what this game looks like. Two of the top four teams in pace? Check. Two of the bottom five teams in points given up per game? Check. Fox currently sits 13th in touches per game and is just about four touches a contes from being in the top 10. On the season, New Orleans is allowing the third most real points to point guards overall. For a player like Fox, scoring real life points can be the factor that puts his fantasy game over the top. He already is among the league leaders in assists per game and generally plays about 32 minutes in competitive games. In a spot that will provide him so many more opportunities and a team that is bad defensively, Fox would have to have a hideous game to let you down in this one.
Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, Celtics
Fade – Lonzo Ball, Lakers
If you read my NBA work consistently, you likely already know that Ball is one of my least favorite players for fantasy. He is the definition of volatile and a player that has so much trouble with his shot isn’t that appealing to me usually. I have been playing him a fair amount lately because the Lakers have been shorthanded with no Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram. Now that those two players are back, Ball’s minutes dropped to 26 this past game. Now we add in the matchup against the Grizzlies, who are ninth toughest against the position. They allow under eight assists per game and right around 20 points. If you cut that in about half and gave that to Ball, he is massively overpriced.
Honorable Mention – Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Luka Doncic, Mavericks
This is contingent on Doncic playing. He did get banged up yesterday and could miss. Provided he’s healthy, I’m all in on playing him if my build allows it. I’ll be the first one to tell you that I’ve been hesitant to play Doncic at this price point. However, with Dennis Smith Jr. still out with his wrist injury, Doncic is at a 1.18 FPPM mark. That’s excellent and he’s been exceeding 30 minutes with regularity. Portland is a middling matchup and in the last 14 days, the young rookie has shot up to over 80 touches per game, good for top 15 in the league. Dallas is going to need him to continue to be a driving force behind the offense tonight and if you’re spending up he’s one of the best routes to take. The 40-50 point game is well within reach once again.
Honorable Mention – Klay Thompson, Warriors
Fade – Jeremy Lamb, Hornets
So this is more FanDuel than DK, but I really don’t want him on either site. The Celtics are a solid defensive squad who surrender only the fourth least points in the league. They are going to be a little sour after getting rocked at home by the Bucks and Lamb is up to $7,000 on FD. Using a player that is mostly scoring dependent against a team that is giving up the fifth fewest points to the position seems like a poor idea to start with and he’s not exactly cheap anymore. Lamb has been playing fairly well, but it would be hard to use him over a guard in the Kings game that is right around the same price on both sites.
Honorable Mention – Andrew Wiggins
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Danilo Gallinari, Clippers
Gallo has been on a tear theses past four games and I don’t think it stops today either. Of course, you can pay up to bigger names but Gallinari gets a game against the fast paced Warriors and they will need him to stay close in this one. The Warriors face the fourth most three pointers a game and so far this year, Gallo is shooting 5.3 every game and killing it with a 45.7 percentage from that range. Of all players that attempt at least 4.5 three’s a game, only Joe Harris and Steph Curry shoot at a higher percentage than Gallo. While both teams are on a back to back, the Clippers rolled over the Nuggets in part because Nikola Jokic got ejected. Gallinari only played 25 minutes so his legs should still be plenty fresh because he averages about 31 a night. On top of everything else, the Warriors allow the second most real life points to small forwards in the NBA.
Honorable Mention – Josh Richardson, Heat
Fade – Jayson Tatum, Celtics
I feel like he could gain some traction in part because Charlotte is a strong matchup for a lot of positions on the floor. I’m not going to be suckered into the little green number by his name on DK. It doesn’t seem to matter what kind of matchup it is, Tatum is allergic to going over 40 DK points. At his price point, you need right about 38-40 to hit 6x and even that isn’t enough many nights to do a lot of damage in GPP. I will grant that Tatum is a solid cash play night in and night out but when the Celtics are healthy(and they relatively are), Tatum has a usage under 24 percent and a FPPM below 1.00. That’s not generally anyone that I’ll spend that kind of salary on, regardless of the Hornets defense.
Honorable Mention – Brandon Ingram, Lakers
NEW YORK, NY – FEBRUARY 10: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans attempts a dunk against the Brooklyn Nets in the second quarter during their game at Barclays Center on February 10, 2018 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Anthony Davis, Pelicans
I try to not take the most obvious route at every position and you likely don’t need to be told you can play Davis every night if you’re reading an NBA DFS article. Davis has been a fantasy force and it’s kind of funny that his coach talked about dialing back his minutes within the last couple of weeks. In the last 10, he’s hit at least 34 other than two minor injury scares. This is a spot where Davis could legitimately flirt with 80 DK points. Davis is ninth in paint touches per contest and that’s not even touching on the other facets of his game. Sacramento is bottom five in rebounding and gives up the fifth most points in the paint. There’s not a soul who has a ghost of a chance to defend Davis on the Kings. Even with nine games, Davis tends out above the rest.
Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Pelicans
Fade – Tobias Harris, Clippers
As much as I love Gallo, I’m not really a fan of his counterpart on the other side of the court. Harris is having the style of season that should get. him into the All-Star game but he’s got an uphill climb in this spot. The Warriors are giving up the seventh fewest DK points to the position and that’s with Draymond Green missing a significant portion of the season. Golden State only allows 19.3 to power forwards, good for fifth best in the association. The fact they have some of these ranks without Green is fairly impressive. That certainly isn’t hurt since Green is back and Green hasn’t slid to the five all that often this season. Harris is fairly priced for most nights and I’m usually right there using him but this is just a poor spot and there’s enough options to keep me off him tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jaren Jackson, Jr.
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Jarrett Allen, Nets
It’s always a little stomach churning writing up any Nets player and on DK, I might just use Davis as my center and keep the other slots open. If you’re on FD and don’t have that option, Allen does need to be looked at. Allen is still in the top 15 in paint touches even though his minutes aren’t exactly stable.
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This should be the spot for him to take advantage of a very tired Deandre Ayton, and the Suns are in the bottom half of the league in points and rebounds given up in the paint. Allen is under the average price per player on both sites and could really help build up other parts of the lineup. For a lot of factors, center isn’t quite as loaded as we see it some nights.
Honorable Mention – Marc Gasol, Grizzlies
Fade – Karl Anthony-Towns, Timberwolves
I swear I don’t have anything against KAT. Especially with Jimmy Butler kicking it over in Philly, Towns has been a focal point of this team. I just don’t like playing centers against Steven Adams. I think he’s highly underrated and the numbers would certainly back up the opinion that he’s excellent defensively.
The Thunder give up the fifth fewest points, second fewest rebounds and the least amount of DK points to opposing centers. Adams is a big reason for that and to me, I can’t see much of a reason to pay up for Towns given that matchup. He would have a very tough time finding his way to value if those numbers held up tonight.
Honorable Mention – DeAndre Jordan, Mavericks
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