FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Special Christmas Day Edition!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Merry Christmas, NBA DFS players, and welcome back to the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS more than Santa loves milk and cookies on Christmas Eve!

‘Tis the season for FanDuel NBA Basketball! What’s more fun than unwrapping presents on Christmas morning and then tuning in for 12 straight hours of NBA action?

The Christmas Day slate is unique in that we have a 5-game slate that locks at noon and you won’t be able to edit your lineup for the rest of the day (which might be a good thing, go enjoy some family time).

I’ll be breaking down each of the five games today, giving you my top targets in each, as well as my favorite value plays, core plays and sample lineup.

As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. We have a whole day without games today to research, but the status of certain players will likely change between now and tomorrow afternoon/evening.

As an extra special Christmas treat we have a Fantasy CPR FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft with 10 NBA DFS tickets up for grabs including a $25 GPP ticket to the winner.

Let’s jump right into the Christmas Day Breakdown!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Christmas Day

Injury Report

***Chris Paul is out for the Rockets. Two words…James Harden.

***Malcolm Brogdon was rested in Saturday’s game but is likely to play against the Knicks. So we’re less likely to have any Bucks value guards we can target.

***Alonzo Trier practiced yesterday, which gives him a chance at suiting up against the Bucks. His return to the rotation would likely muddy up the minute distribution for the Knicks second unit even further.

***Wilson Chandler missed the Sixers last game with a quad contusion. The injury doesn’t sound serious, so I expect he could play. Mike Muscala started (and didn’t do much) for Chandler on Saturday.

***James Ennis could return from a two-week absence for Houston. His potential return would hurt our chances of being able to use Gerald Green or Danuel House as value plays.

***Ersan Ilyasova remains out for the Bucks. His absence has given D.J. Wilson a chance to earn a spot in the rotation.

***Tyson Chandler and JaVale McGee could both potentially be out for the Lakers again. McGee was hospitalized for pneumonia over the weekend and Chandler’s back has been acting up. This has cleared the way for Ivica Zubac to start the last two games and put up solid numbers.

Headlines

You got me a fruitcake, James?

Old friends (or maybe frenemies) James Harden and Russell Westbrook square off in what should be one of the best games on the slate as the Rockets host the Thunder in the 3:00 game.  The Rockets are winners of 6 of their last 7 games, while the Thunder had reeled off 4 straight wins before dropping a close game to Minnesota on Sunday.

Uncle Drew vs. The Process

I’m really looking forward to watching this game, as the Celtics and Sixers are going to go at it today in what should be a physical contest between two of the Eastern Conference’s better teams.

The Celtics handled the Sixers on opening night, but since then the Sixers added Jimmy Butler and Boston has scuffled a bit lately losing 3 of 4 after an awesome 8 game winning streak put them back near the top of the standings.

Lakers vie for Legitimacy vs. the Champs

LeBron is back in the Bay Area and facing some familiar foes as the Warriors beat his Cavs in 3 out of the last 4 NBA finals. He’s got the Lakers only 3.5 games back of the Warriors in the Pacific Division standings and will be motivated to show that his young squad can compete with the GSW Super-Friends.

Vegas Data

The Bucks are the biggest favorite (-10) on the slate and they’re even in New York for this game.

The Lakers are 9 point underdogs on the road at Golden State. That game has the highest total sitting at 234.

The tighest spread comes in the Houston-OKC game as the Rockets are only 1.5 point favorites at home.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Bucks @ Knicks

The first game of the slate tips off at noon, and I have to admit I have very little interest in the players on either side of this matchup.

The Bucks come in as big road favorites against a bad Knicks team, and while we try to avoid predicting blowouts most of the time, this one feels like it could get out of hand pretty easily.

I’m very aware that the Knicks did, in fact, beat this Bucks team 136-134 back on December 1st in a game that was filled with fantasy goodness. However, since then, New York is 1-9 while the Bucks have gone 7-3 and looked dominant against some of the better teams in the league.

Christmas miracles can happen so just in case New York can keep it close, here’s who I would target.

Emmanuel Mudiay (6400) and Kevin Knox (6300) have emerged as the best options on this young Knicks team and both had good games in their victory over Milwaukee.  They are getting the minutes and shot attempts that we are looking for here and if you wanted to game stack this game or just get a piece of New York, then I’m looking at these two guys.

For Milwaukee, obviously, you have to consider Giannis Antetokounmpo (11500) as he’s capable of being the high scorer on any slate and he did have 75 FanDuel points against the Knicks in that first meeting.

It’s hard for me to make a case for paying for him when we have LeBron, Durant, and PG13 also at the SF position, but for that same reason maybe he’s a nice contrarian pick.

Khris Middleton (7500) and Eric Bledsoe (7300) are priced in the mid-range and I’d only use them if you were going to stack this game and hope for a similar result as that early December meeting. I could totally be wrong about this game and it certainly has a chance to go off, but I’m more interested in some of the other games later in the day.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Thunder @ Rockets

Former “Thunder-Buddies” Russell Westbrook (11300) and James Harden (12400) will look to one-up each other here in what looks to be one of the premier games on the slate.

The Thunder got the best of Houston earlier this year, beating them 98-80 without the services of Westbrook. It’s the Rockets that will be shorthanded in this game, as Chris Paul is going to be out for a few weeks with a hamstring injury.

James Harden is my favorite play on the slate. He has a 40%+ usage rate without Chris Paul and he’s averaging almost 40 points per game over his last 6 games, along with 7 rebounds and 9.5 assists.

The other Rocket who will find his way into some lineups is Eric Gordon (6000). Gordon has played 38 and 36 minutes in the last two games since Paul was injured and topped 30 FanDuel points in each of those games. He’s scoring dependent, but he can score in bunches and OKC hasn’t been very good against opposing shooting guards without their lockdown defender Andre Roberson.

For OKC, I’m leaning more towards using Paul George (10300) than Russell Westbrook.  Sure, Westy won’t have to deal with CP3 defense, but you simply can’t ignore what PG13 is doing right now.

George is averaging 35-10-5 over his last five games and has been a better value than Westbrook based on their difference in salaries. PG13 is now only 1000 cheaper, but I still like him in this spot because he will likely be lower-owned and I think he has the potential to have another big game.

He should end up guarding Harden, which means that chance to rack up steals as James is awfully careless with the basketball. In their first meeting, George had 6 steals!

The other Thunder player I’m interested in here is Jerami Grant (5400). He’s seen his minutes climb back up again recently, playing 33 or more in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s a stat stuffer who racks up boards and averages 1.25 blocks per game.

He can also knock down open threes and grab some garbage buckets off the offensive glass. He’s a solid value at this price and I think he’s in good spot here.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Sixers @ Celtics

This game has a solid 222 total and only a four-point spread as the Celtics are slight favorites here at home.

The range of outcomes here is great, as the Celtics are known to be a slow-tempo, half court-offense type of team but are being paced up here by the Sixers who like to push the ball up the floor. Whether it’s high scoring or low-scoring, I do think we see a good game here and that it goes down to the wire.

There are some sneaky value plays in this game that I will get to later in the article, but let’s first look at the stars from each side.

Kyrie Irving (9200) deserves a look here and while he’s not my favorite guy to spend up on at point guard, he’s certainly capable of a big performance here against Philly, a team that has been hammered by good point guards this season.

Kyrie didn’t do much in the opener against the Sixers, but the game turned into a blowout and he’s playing much better ball these days. It’s tough to make the case for Irving when the Celtics are totally healthy as they tend to be more balanced, but we can’t rule out the possibility of him going nuts in this spot.

For the Sixers, Joel Embiid (10300) is the most logical place to start. He leads the team in usage and has arguably the best matchup as centers done well against the Celtics this season. I’m not really considering Embiid, though, as his minutes are trending down and his production has tailed off as well.

He would be a contrarian play here today if you want to get some leverage as I don’t think many will be willing to spend up at the center position, but I think you’re better off spending up elsewhere.

One mid-range play that I’m really interested here is Jimmy Butler (7400).  Jimmy Buckets has reeled off two straight 40 FD point outings and I think he’s someone who will get totally overlooked on this slate.

Butler isn’t scoring a ton, but if Embiid struggles with Al Horford (6700), who’s also an interesting play himself,  then Butler could get more shots. Ben Simmons has also struggled against Boston, so maybe Butler takes the lead for the Sixers in this one.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Lakers @ Warriors

This game comes in with the highest total on the board and should be one of the faster-paced games on the slate as well. The Warriors are finally back to full strength and are piling the points on their opponents lately.

Meanwhile, despite having Rondo and Ingram back healthy, the Lakers have dropped three of their last four and could struggle to keep this one close if they’re not making shots early.

Most of my interest in this game comes on the GSW side. Steph Curry (9700) is an elite GPP play at this price and is one of the few players under 10k that has 60 FanDuel point upside. The Lakers are not good defensively and Steph is coming off a huge night on Sunday in which he dropped 42 actual points on the Clippers.

Meanwhile, Kevin Durant (10400) is also on fire for the Dubs, putting up 53 and 67 FanDuel points in his last two games. His track record against LeBron (11400) is pretty solid and I think he can match or exceed James for a thousand less in salary.

Stacking this game up is tough, otherwise, I’d consider running James back with Curry and/or Durant. LeBron is likely a fade for me on this slate, but he certainly could have a huge performance in this spot.

We know he loves the spotlight and I’m sure he’ll be geared up for this one. Having to deal with Draymond Green (7300) or Andre Iguodala on defense may slow him down, though and the only Laker I’m really big on here is Ivica Zubac (more on him later).

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Blazers @ Jazz

This game is set to tip off at 10:30 and will likely be forgotten about by many DFS players who may be unconscious by the time this game starts, three glasses of eggnog deep and watching sugar plums dance in heads.

These teams just played last Friday, with Utah handling the Blazers on their home floor in a 30-point route. This time Utah has the homecourt advantage and they find themselves six-point favorites in this game, which has the lowest total on the slate.

I think it’s unlikely we see another blowout, but I’m also not that interested in stacking up this game as it should be one of the slower-paced games on the slate.

A few pieces that I like on the Utah side are Joe Ingles (6000) and Derrick Favors (5900). I’m more inclined to pay up at small forward, but Ingles has been really solid lately, scoring 33-36 FD points in his last three games including 33.5 in only 27 minutes against Portland last week.

Favors feels a little overpriced here considering he rarely plays more than 25 minutes, but his ability to get easy scores inside and rack up defensive stats means he could go over 30 FD points here even in his limited minutes.

For Portland, it’s all about Damian Lillard (9300) or Jusuf Nurkic (8100) for me. Neither of them comes cheap and they both feel somewhat overpriced for this matchup, however, they will be very contrarian picks that could still go off in this game.

Nurk had 36 FD points in only 26 minutes against the Jazz in the last game before it got out of hand and is a tough matchup for Rudy Gobert. And of course, Damian Lillard can get hot from deep at any point and put up 40 actual points, too.

I’m not in love with either of these plays, but I understand why they could be appealing if you’re looking to be different or making a bunch of lineups.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays

Welcome to the bargain section of the breakdown.  This is where I highlight my favorite values for each slate. For our purposes, I am going to consider a player a “value play” if they are 5000 or less. There are usually several sub 5k players every slate who end up making 7x or better value.

Finding value is going to be really important as this Christmas day slate is loaded with high priced studs and roster construction is likely going to take on a “stars and scrubs” type approach.

Ivica Zubac (3500)

Zubac could be chalk city if we see both Lakers center sit out, but he might a near must-play based on his production in his two starts this season. He’s averaged 38 FanDuel points in 32 minutes per game in these last two games and he’s been a solid fantasy producer in his career when given the minutes.

T.J. McConnell (3900)

Don’t sleep on the scrappy backup point guard from the Sixers, he’s got the potential to go 6-7x. His minutes have stabilized in the mid 20’s since Markelle Fultz left the rotation and he can rack up enough assists and steals to pay off his price.

D.J. Wilson (3800)

Wilson has come out of nowhere to claim a healthy chunk of minutes for the Bucks as their first big man off the bench.

He’s stealing some minutes from Brook Lopez and Thon Maker. He’s brought some energy off the bench, grabbing offensive rebounds and getting some easy baskets and I think he could definitely make value at this price if he gets another 20-25 minutes against the Knicks here.

Jonas Jerebko (4400)

Jerebko is less appealing that he was a few weeks ago when Draymond Green was out but is still seeing 20 minutes off the bench for the Warriors. I don’t mind him in this particular matchup against the Lakers, but he seems a little overpriced compared to other value options. Power Forward is definitely a position I want to punt, however.

Terry Rozier (4000)

“Scary Terry” is a solid fantasy producer who can pile up stats in a hurry. He’s not usually an elite play unless the Celtics are missing a guard in their crowded rotation, but he’s still seeing 20+ minutes off the bench. He tortured these Sixers last year in the playoffs when Kyrie Irving went down and he’s certainly got the skill set to get us 20+ even in limited court time.

Jaylen Brown (4400)

Brown is a wild card here as his price has dropped down due to his inconsistent minutes and production. He’s now coming off the bench for the Celtics, while Marcus Smart is starting. I actually like Brown off the bench better and he’s had some really good games as a reserve. He and Rozier both have some upside here at their prices if one of them can get hot with the second unit.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

I’m going to give you my two favorite plays that I’m going to be building around in addition to the sample lineup. I usually do three core plays, but this slate is incredibly difficult due to how expensive all the stud players are.

This is my core, meaning most of my lineups will start with these players and they are the plays that I feel have the best chance to help win some tournaments tonight. I may not have 100% exposure to these players, but they are the plays that I feel the most confident in and will be the primary building blocks for most of my lineups.

***Today’s Core***

James Harden

Kevin Durant

As you can tell, I’m using a pretty extreme “stars and scrubs” roster construction here. I think it’s viable to get 3 10k+ players into lineups for this slate, though I’ll probably have some lineups with only two. I also like the idea of game-stacking Houston-OKC and Boston-Philadelphia. Here’s where I’m at with my first-look build.

PG: Terry Rozier (4000)
PG: T.J. McConnell (3900)
SG: James Harden (12400)
SG: Eric Gordon (6000)
SF: Kevin Durant (10400)
SF: Paul George (10300)
PF: Jerami Grant (5400)
PF: D.J. Wilson (3800)
C: Ivica Zubac (3500)

Ok, that wraps it up (Christmas pun intended)! I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.

And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!