DraftKings NBA Picks December 26: A.D. Goes to Towns
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks December 26: A.D. Goes to Towns
Hopefully you all had a happy holiday and Harden Claus came through with a big time Christmas gift. We have a big time slate with ten games for our DraftKings NBA tournament. Do we drop a couple in the $15 entry trying for the big win, or max entry the $1 one for a chance at a cool $2,000 for a buck! I’m torn on which way to go.
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The money line was at 280.75 on Christmas. There were big performances all day. I was able to sneak two above the money line. The third one was just short because of a terrible value pick on Jonas Jerebko. If I had used Iggy, I would have cleared a couple of money tiers.
The winning lineup was a solid 357.75 DraftKings points. He built around Harden and Kyrie and got huge value from Iguodala and Ivica Zubac, not to mention a huge day from Capela.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Kemba Walker ($8,400): I thought about Oladipo here, but I expect a blowout in that game, and the Pacers aren’t going to run him too hard. He’s only been back for about a week. Kemba draws the Nets, who are improving against the point, but not to the point where I would considering not running a score first point guard out there against him.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,200): The Clippers are the worst team in the league defending the point. Yes, they are even worse than the Hawks. Fox picked up 39.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but that was a month ago Fox is on another level right now. He could wind up being the highest scoring point guard on this slate.
Honorable Mention:
Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,000): This is a good matchup for the Nets, especially on the perimeter. However, we are to the point where Dinwiddie and Russell are starting to borrow from each other’s value. The Nets actually have scrappy bench players that they want to get out there as well. This team is pretty deep, so no one, especially on the wings, plays much more than 30 minutes. I’m not saying that value isn’t possible for Russell or Dinwiddie. I’m just saying it takes one of their better games to hit value now.
Derrick Rose ($6,800): I guarantee that Rose is taking the floor in this one. He will be starting against the team that he began his career with in the city that he grew up in. If you play narratives, it doesn’t get any better than this. I’m not saying that Rose holds any animosity towards his former team, but playing in a building that is a short bus ride from his childhood home is a powerful motivator, especially when he had so much success there early in his career.
Jamal Murray ($6,300): This is not a great matchup for Murray, but with Harris and Barton still out, the volume is going to be there. The Spurs aren’t defensive juggernauts like the days of yore, but they play slow and methodical and don’t let you get shots off early. Murray will still have plenty of chances to hit value, just don’t expect a shot at 50.
Dark Horses:
Reggie Jackson ($5,400): I usually make it a point to not play Jackson, but in a matchup like this, we need to take notice. Washington’s defense is practically non existent. Ariza helps, but not on the perimeter. Wall still can’t really guard anyone. Jackson isn’t a huge part of the offense, but he is involved enough to go well beyond value in a matchup like this.
Monte Morris ($4,600): Morris has at least 25 DraftKings points in six straight games. The extended run with Harris out has sparked his breakout season even more. Morris still looks underpriced at this point. The matchups haven’t mattered much to this point, so it doesn’t really here either.
Derrick White ($3,700): White isn’t going to wow you with his numbers, but he is getting starter’s minutes for the Spurs now. No one in the Spurs rotation really gets a lot of minutes, so the upside is capped, especially for a guy that isn’t heavily involved in the offense anyway. However, for a value play, White has a pretty decent floor, but not much upside.
My pick: Jackson(PG), Morris(G); White(PG)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jrue Holiday ($8,800): Holiday put up 40.25 DraftKings points against Dallas in the first meeting. Holiday’s numbers have been strong all year, but now you need 44 DraftKings points to hit 5x value, not just 40. Still, Holiday has topped 39 DraftKings points in 11 of the last 12 games. All but one of those was over 40 with a couple of 50’s and a 70 sprinkled in there. This is still a solid spot to run Holiday if you have the cap room.
Devin Booker ($8,500): Booker is doing his best Harden without Chris Paul impression. Booker is the only volume scorer on the Suns, and has put up some huge numbers recent. Not just against bad teams either. Booker topped 6x against Boston and the Knicks. Don’t laugh. The Knicks are actually in the top third of the league defending shooting guards. This is a big spot for Booker, but I like this matchup a little less if he draws Augustin defensively.
Honorable Mention:
D’Angelo Russell ($7,500): Russell’s price is down to where it’s a little more reasonable to use him. This is a good matchup with Charlotte, but with Dinwiddie playing so well, Russell isn’t going to run 35-40 minutes like Booker or Holiday. That makes him even more of a risk at this price. Still, if Russell gets hot, he can help you take down a GPP.
Buddy Hield ($7,200): It’s hard to trust Hield since we have seen runs like this from him before in his brief career. However, we haven’t seen his minutes stay at 35 or above for an extended period of time. The Kings seem to be tightening the rotation some, and that can only help HIeld. He has 139 DraftKings points over the last three games, and has a great matchup with the Clippers tonight.
Lou Williams ($6,600): Williams is actually playing minutes more indicative of a bench player since his return, so I’m a little less thrilled about this. That said, LouWill has topped 40 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. Williams may only play 25 minutes, but the volume that he has while on the court is still more than enough for him to hit value. This is also a great matchup against the Kings.
Dark Horses:
Tyler Johnson ($5,600): Johnson finally found his stroke last game, pouring in 25 points and putting up 31.25 DraftKings points. With Dragic still out, Johnson is still going to play a large portion of this game. Johnson is the main scorer on the second unit, and while Toronto’s second unit can be harder to score on than most, there is still good value potential for Johnson here.
Garrett Temple ($4,500): Temple has back to back games of more than 30 DraftKings points. He has a great chance to make it three straight tonight against the Cavs. Temple’s defense is a big reason that I’m not really a fan of Burks tonight despite his recent strong play. Temple will be my replacement tonight since he is right around the game price as Burks.
My pick: Temple(SG); Johnson(SG), Williams(G)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500): On paper, this is not a great matchup for Kawhi. He doesn’t care much about paper. Leonard ravaged Miami for 53 DraftKings points in the first meeting. He has been over 39 DraftKings points in every game since Thanksgiving. That’s a pretty strong floor, and he has the same upside that he had with the Spurs. There aren’t a lot of stars on this slate, so to me, Kawhi looks a bit underpriced here.
Luka Doncic ($8,300): I do wonder how this dynamic will work when Dennis Smith returns. Doncic has been amazing, putting up more than 47 DraftKings points in six of the last eight games. Smith has missed all of those. With Smith possibly returning tonight, it could cut into Doncic’s productivity. Enough that I’m nervous using him here, even against New Orleans. If it comes out that Smith is out, I’m a big fan of Doncic here.
Honorable Mention:
Danilo Gallinari ($7,300): Gallo has been playing big minutes and putting up pretty big numbers lately. The Kings are going to get out and try and outscore you since they can’t defense. The up tempo game should help shooters like Gallinari. Not like he needs any help right now. I think I like the whole Clippers’ frontcourt here.
Josh Richardson ($6,700): One thing I like about Richardson is that he hits value regardless of whether his shot is falling or not. Well, when the Heat are shorthanded anyway. The Heat have been perpetually shorthanded for the last two years, making Richardson a strong play just about every time he’s on the court. Richardson has played 36 or more minutes and put up at least 30 DraftKings points in every game with Dragic out this time around. Ride him until Dragic returns.
Harrison Barnes ($6,000): This looks like a really good spot for Barnes. Mirotic is still out and Barnes has an increased role in the offense with Smith sidelined. It’s easy to argue that Doncic has helped open up this offense. If Smith comes back I’m a little less excited, but I would still consider using Barnes at this price.
Dark Horses:
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200): In tonight’s exciting episode of choose that Bogdanovic we have one that is a better play than the other again. So yes, watch the team closely to make sure you pick the right one. Bogdan has been sporadic in both minutes and production over the last couple weeks or so, so I’m not crazy about using him. He’s not exactly a bad play, just more of a risk. Bojan against the lowly Hawks with a guaranteed 30 minutes is a much safer play.
Nemanja Bjelica ($4,800): The price is right and the minutes have been there with Bagley out for Nemanja, but with the backcourt and WCS hogging the scoring, Bjelica hasn’t come close to putting up the numbers that he did while starting earlier this season. Big minutes are pretty hard to come by at this price though. He could be worth it just like Iguodala was last night just because of the minutes.
Darius Miller ($4,100): I don’t mind if you copy me and ride Miller for value. I’ve been doing it the whole time with Mirotic out. Miller adds the long range threat that the Pelicans need with Mirotic out. Hill will see his share of minutes, but Miller is a much more reliable DFS play. He has played at least 30 minutes every game with Mirotic out. Only once has he missed value.
My pick: Miller(SF); N/A
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,800): Why wouldn’t we play Davis here? After all, he is averaging more than 5x value on the season even at this price. Davis put up 59.5 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against Dallas in the first meeting. Nothing to see here. Just another dominant performance by Davis.
Blake Griffin ($9,000): Griffin wasn’t much of a factor in a smash spot against Atlanta on Sunday, but Drummond was the guy that at them up. That could happen here as well. Washington is sorely undersized with D12’s pain in the ass keeping him out. This is another great spot for Griffin, but Drummond has an even better matchup. We are probably better off pairing Drummond with Davis instead of using the entire Detroit front.
Honorable Mention:
Tobias Harris ($7,800): Harris took it to the Kings for 43 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes in the first meeting. Even if this game doesn’t stay close, I like Harris to hit value here. Power forwards have destroyed the Kings, and it has been even worse with Bagley out of the lineup. Harris looks back on track after a rough patch in mid December. He looks like one of the safer plays of the night here.
Lauri Markkanen ($7,700): I don’t love this matchup, but with the amount of shots that Markkanen has been taking with LaVine out, he is at least worth considering. For me it’s a hard sell because Harris and Randle have far better matchups. That said, Markkanen has at least 40 DraftKings points in four of five games with LaVine out.
Pascal Siakam ($6,500): Siakam racked up 41 DraftKings points on the Miami front in just 30 minutes in the first meeting. Ibaka will be back for this one, but Siakam did that to the Heat with Ibaka in the lineup last time. We have seen Siakam get better and better as the season goes along. He should be good for at least 5x value tonight.
Dark Horses:
Thaddeus Young ($5,600): Young continues to put up really good numbers in about 28 minutes per game. They are splitting the frontcourt minutes three ways right now, but I may play all three of them against the Hawks. Atlanta has been torched inside. I’ve been torched by Myles Turner several times this year, but on paper this is a good spot for him.
Marvin Williams ($5,100): This is a good spot for Williams against Brooklyn. The hardest question tonight will be whether to stack the Indiana front against Atlanta or the Hornets against the Nets. The Hornets are cheaper, but I would say that the upside is significantly less.
Rodions Kurucs ($4,600): The Nets have unearthed another strong rotation player in Kurucs. Watch the status of Allen Crabbe. When Crabbe returns, Kurucs could lose a lot of these minutes, but with as well as he has played over the last few games, the Nets may decide to bring Crabbe along slowly while Kurucs is hot.
My pick: Davis(PF), Kurucs(F), Young(UTIL); Siakam(PF), Harris(SF)
DraftKings NBA Centers
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($9,600): Jokic got tossed on Saturday, so that makes his outing seem poor. It wasn’t great by any means, but it was better than the line indicates. This is a matchup against the Spurs that Jokic can take advantage of, so long as he and the Nuggets can keep their cool.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400): It’s guys like Towns that don’t make Davis an automatic play tonight. Towns had one of the best games of his career against the Bulls earlier this year with 73.25 DraftKings points. The Bulls are slightly better up front with the emergence of Carter, but Bobby Portis is still out. Towns is a mismatch for anyone on that front and could dominate this game again.
Andre Drummond ($9,200): Drummond has been somewhat of a disappointment lately. He has over 43 DraftKings points in his last three games, but against Atlanta, Charlotte, and Minnesota, you would think that Drummond would have had at least one game with over 50. That wasn’t the case.
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Honorable Mention:
Nikola Vucevic ($8,900): Vucevic torched Phoenix for 53.75 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes in the first meeting. Ayton is getting better, but he still isn’t to the point where he can control a guy like Vucevic. If you are fading the upper tier, Vucevic is not a bad option at all.
Myles Turner ($8,000): Turner has three straight 40+ DraftKings points games, and he was just under that in the game before. We ask this every time Turner does something like this. How long will it last? It should here against a weak Atlanta front, but if you dont trust it, Sabonis has been playing well and is a full $1,800 less.
Julius Randle ($7,900): Randle destroyed Dallas for 53 DraftKings points about three weeks ago. Not much has changed on either side to have me believe it wont happen again. Dallas couldn’t handle either of the Pelicans bigs the first time around. While most will be attacking the Washington, Brookyn, and Atlanta fronts, it’s worth going after Dallas too or instead if you have the cash.
Dark Horses:
Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,500): For as much energy as Harrell brings off the bench, he really isn’t a good defender either. WCS went nuts on the Pelicans for 55.25 DraftKings points on Sunday and nearly hit 40 against a good Memphis front on Friday. The minutes and production are both up, so we may finally be seeing WCS become a consistent contributor here.
Montrezl Harrell ($5,700): Harrell was shut down by the Warriors on Sunday, but this is a much better matchup for him. The Kings can’t stop anyone inside lately. Before the Warriors disaster, Harrell had four straight games with more than 30 DraftKings points. That makes him a solid value pick at this price.
Cody Zeller ($4,400): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! SO IS WILLY HERNANGOMEZ IF HE GETS THE START! After his last performance, he might…..
My pick: Towns(C); Towns(C), Zeller(UTIL), Harrell(F)
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