FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Wednesday, 12/26 – We Three Kings

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Wednesday 12/26

Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS.  A quick thanks to all of you who read the column every day.  I hope everyone had a happy holiday and enjoyed some time with family and friends as well as 12 hours of NBA basketball that was on television.

Kevin Durant and the Warriors let me down yesterday, but I still managed to cash a good chunk of my lineups thanks to Paul George, Jerami Grant, James Harden, and Ivica Zubac. Yesterday’s sample lineup easily went over 300 FanDuel points which was nice. It was a wild Christmas day slate with some highly entertaining games.

As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

We go from a relatively small 5-game slate yesterday to a pretty standard Wednesday night with 10 games on the main slate. There will no shortage of solid plays and it should be pretty easy to make lineups that you’re going to like on a slate this size. I’ll be going position by position today in an attempt to give you my top 2-3 plays at each position.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Make sure you check out the “value plays” section where I spotlight players under 5k that we can use to help fit in our favorite studs and “core plays” section at the end which gives you my three favorite players to build around.  And of course, I always include my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  My best advice is to never settle on a lineup at 6 AM (a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed about 6 AM) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary. Let’s take a closer look at what this Wednesday NBA slate has to offer!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 10 Game Slate

Injury Report

***Jeff Teague is out tonight for Minnesota, but Derrick Rose is questionable.

***Dennis Smith and Wes Matthews are questionable, while teammate Jose Juan Barea is probable for the Mavs.

***Zach LaVine is questionable for Chicago, meaning he could make his return to the lineup after being out for two weeks.

***Allen Crabbe is still out for the Nets.

***Otto Porter remains out for the Wizards.

***Nikola Mirotic remains out for the Pelicans.

***Gary Harris, Will Barton, and Paul Millsap are all still out for the Denver Nuggets.

***John Collins is questionable for Atlanta,  while Taurean Prince is still out.

***Marvin Bagley III has been ruled out for the Kings tonight.

***Centers Jonas Valanciunas, Tristan Thompson, Dwight Howard, and Pau Gasol are all still out for their respective teams.

Vegas Data

The highest game total comes from the late game between the Kings and Clippers game which opened at 238.5.

The second highest total is in the Dallas-New Orleans game, which is sitting at 228.5 with Dallas only favored by 2.5 points.

The lowest total is in the Memphis-Cleveland game at 196.5 (we see totals under 200 so rarely these days – this is LOW!)

We still don’t have totals from Toronto-Miami or Minnesota-Chicago.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

DeAaron Fox (8200)

I’ll try to keep my analysis short today if I can. Fox is in an elite spot tonight, as his Kings have the second highest implied team total and he has an excellent matchup against the Clippers backcourt, which has struggled to defend point guards all season. This game is so juicy and I want probably three kings in most of my lineups tonight (hence the name of the article).  Fox has been rolling lately, scoring 40+ FanDuel points with regularity. He’s an easy play for me here and I’m not too worried about his ownership being high – this spot is too good to pass up.

Derrick Rose (7300)

Obviously, we need Rose to get ruled in before lock in order to consider him, but it sounds like he practiced on Monday and should likely be a go for this game in his hometown Chicago.  Before getting hurt, Rose was putting up solid numbers as the starting point guard for the Wolves. Jeff Teague remains out, and Rose has seen his usage rate grow to 26% on the season. He’s to shoot often and handle the ball on nearly every possession. Chicago is bad defensively, specifically against guards and centers so the matchup is great, too. Toss in the “hometown” or “revenge” narratives if you need to, but Rose is a solid play by the numbers.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

Victor Oladipo (8500)

Oladipo and the Pacers are being paced up the most of any team tonight as they face a young Hawks team that plays fast and loose. We saw Oladipo priced all the way up near 10k at one point before getting hurt, he feels way too cheap here for this spot. I don’t want to pay up at shooting guard, but I definitely want some exposure to V.O. tonight in case he goes for 60+ against Atlanta.

Buddy Hield (6700) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (6100)

I love both of these Kings guards today, though I won’t roster them together. They’re unlikely to both go off in the same game, but both are also priced where they won’t hurt your lineup is they only go for 25-30 FanDuel points. I’m leaning towards using Bogdan only because he’s cheaper and he has a higher usage in his role as the Kings’ 6th man off the bench. Both players should see 30+ minutes and have the potential to go for 40+ FD points, it’s up to you to figure out which one has the bigger game tonight!

Lou Williams (5400)

Sweet Lou is back to putting up big games off the bench, scoring 39 and 41 FanDuel points since returning from injury. Sandwiched in there was an 11-point dud in a game that against Denver that ended up being a blowout. I love Lou in this game against Sacramento tonight as he thrives in fast-paced track meets and he feels way too cheap here. He’s got a legit shot at 7-8x tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

Danilo Gallinari (7300)

“Yeah, they come to snuff the Rooster..yeah!”  If you remember this song then you rock. Alice in Chains classic “Rooster” from the 1990s is one of my favorite jams and Gallinari was referred to as “the Rooster” early in his NBA career. He’s one of my favorite players to watch as his unorthodox European style of play is never pretty, but effective. He’s a knockdown three-point shooter but also has a craft ability to drive to the basket and finish or get fouled. He’s been solid all season for the Clippers, averaging 19-7-2 for them so far this year and he is constantly priced by FanDuel in this mid-range where he can easily get overlooked. Sure, he’s got a great floor for cash games, but he’s flashed a nice ceiling this year and has gone for 40 and 48 FanDuel points in two of his last three games.

Justise Winslow (5500)

Winslow has returned from injury in a big way, posting 25 and 46 FD points for the Miami. With their starting point guard Goran Dragic out for a while, we’re seeing Winslow play a lot of point guard for the Heat. His ability to rack up assists, boards, and defensive stats make him an elite GPP play at this price even though his ability to score is mediocre at best. Look for him to play 30 minutes tonight and for this scrappy Miami team to hang with the Raptors.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

Anthony Davis (12500)

I’m not sure I need to say that much here. AD is an amazing player in real life and fantasy. Nikola Mirotic is out, and the Pelicans find themselves as road underdogs in a game with a big total. It’s easy to fit him into builds today and I think it’s a no-brainer. Just click on his name and pray you don’t see “Anthony Davis has gone to the locker room” on Twitter!

Montrezl Harrell (6600)

If you don’t know which game will be my “game stack of the night” by the time I get there you’re not paying close enough attention. Harrell is back under 7k where we can play him anytime he gets a solid matchup, and he certainly has one tonight against the Kings. He was hurt by foul trouble against the Warriors in his last game, but was playing really well before that and hit 35 FanDuel points in only 26 minutes against the Kings in their last matchup.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

Andre Drummond (9700)

If you want to pay all the way up at the center position, then Drummond is the top play in my opinion. He gets to pick on the depleted Washington interior and poor Thomas Bryant has no idea what he’s in for against Drummond.  Washington likes to go small and run Markieff Morris at the 5, but the Pistons rarely bench Drum on such occasions and he’ll have a mismatch against just about anyone he faces tonight

DeAndre Ayton (8400)

The rookie-of-the-year candidate is showing why he was taken #1 overall lately, as he’s gone for 38, 36, 45, 51, and 62 FanDuel points in his last 5 games. His price has finally adjusted, but I think it’s still too low as this kid is playing with confidence and starting to eat up a bigger chunk of the Phoenix offense. The Suns know Ayton is their future and they are starting to run more sets for him. He’s playing really well in the pick and roll with Devin Booker and he should be able to eat all night in this matchup with the slow-footed Nikola Vucevic.

Willie Cauley-Stein (7000)

With Bagley now ruled out, I love WCS here tonight in this spot. Centers have been hammering the Clippers all season long and Willie’s minutes are trending up, as he’s played 35 and 36 in the last two games. He won me some money last week when he went for 56 FanDuel points against the Pelicans and I won’t hesitate to go right back to him tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays

Welcome to the bargain section of the breakdown. For our purposes, I am going to consider a player a “value play” if they are 5000 or less. There are some really solid values here in this range tonight, and we could see more value open up tonight if we get some more players ruled out before lineup lock.

Corey Joseph (3900)

Co-Jo is under 4k and facing the Atlanta Hawks. He’s playing 25+ minutes off the bench and while his production is sporadic, he’s certainly got 7x upside at this price and in this matchup.

James Johnson (4400)

The man we affectionately refer to as “Neck-Tat” is relevant once again. He’s seen his playing time go up in his last two games, playing 27 minutes a game. He has a very fantasy-friendly game as he contributes in boards, assists, steals, and blocks while not scoring very often. He doesn’t need to do much in order to make value here tonight at this price.

***Darius Miller (3900)

Miller is my favorite value play on the board tonight. He’s earned 30+ minutes in each of the Pelicans’ last 4 games and has filled in admirably for Nikola Mirotic. Unlike Solomon Hill (who can be a trap to play even when he’s getting minutes because he doesn’t do much), Miller can hit shots and contribute in other categories as well. He’s been over 20 FanDuel points in four of his last five games.

Willy Hernangomez (4200)

This one is a bit of a stretch, but Hernangomez had a massive game against the Celtics last week, racking up 38 FanDuel points in only 23 minutes. He’s a solid per-minute contributor when he gets minutes, but has been stuck on the bench for Charlotte for most of the season.  If he happens to get 20 minutes again tonight against Brooklyn he could easily hit 4x value in that matchup.

 FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Sacramento Kings (+5.5) @ L.A. Clippers (239 total)

This isn’t rocket science, people. If you’ve been playing NBA DFS for a while (or at least reading this article this season) you’ll know that the recipe for a game stack is as follows.

1. High Vegas Total – check!
2. Close Spread – check!
3. Two bad defenses – check!
4. Fast pace (107.7 – highest projected on the slate) – check!
5. Enough players from the game priced where we can afford 4-5 pieces – check!

As you can see, this game checks all the boxes for me tonight. It should draw some ownership, but I’m not worried about that on a 10-game slate as DFS players will be drawn to other spots, too.

When building these stacks, I’m looking to lock in three Kings and I’m considering Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, Cauley-Stein and yes, even Nemanja Bjelica. I wouldn’t run Bogdan and Hield in the same lineup or Bjelica and Cauley-Stein together, but Fox pairs well with everyone. My favorite combo is probably Fox-Bodgan-Cauley-Stein.

On the Clippers side, my favorite targets are Gallinari, Harrell, and Lou Williams. Lou-Will and Montrezl correlate well together as they both play with the second unit off the bench. Tobias Harris (8000) deserves some consideration, too, I just usually don’t pay 8k or more for him.

I plan on stacking this game up a number of different ways and you should, too!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

My GPP strategy for tonight will be to concentrate most of my plays around the Kings-Clippers and Mavericks-Pelicans games, mixing in value plays and one-offs who are in good spots. DeAndre Ayton is one of my favorite plays on the slate and I’m going to toss him in the sample lineup with my core plays.

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***Core Plays***

Anthony Davis (12700)

DeAaron Fox (8200)

Danilo Gallinari (7300)

***Using this core will leave you with 5.3k left for your final six roster spots.

Remember, when building around a core you don’t have to include all three guys in every lineup. You can rotate them into other builds individually with game stacks or just use two of the three sometimes when you’re strapped for cap space.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s where I am starting today.

PG: DeAaron Fox (8200)
PG: Corey Joseph (3900)
SG: Bogdan Bogdanovic (6100)
SG: Lou Williams (5400)
SF: Danilo Gallinari (7300)
SF: Darius Miller (3900)
PF: James Johnson (4400)
PF: Anthony Davis (12500)
C: DeAndre Ayton (8400)

Thanks for reading and make sure you check out all the other great content @fantasyCPR! As always, I love hearing from readers, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter with your feedback.  Good luck in your contests!