Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Thursday December 27

Tonight brings us a five game slate that might well wind up as one of the chalkiest slates of the entire season with two superstars down in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays.

This could wind up being a very frustrating slate to play with some chalk Fantasy Basketball Top Plays. LeBron James is already ruled out for the next “few” games and even though DraftKings had that information when they made this slate, only Kyle Kuzma is above $6,000. On top of that, James Harden seems very questionable to suit up which could leave the Rockets short Chris Paul and Harden. We’ll see how the news develops but let’s dive into what we know right now.

Before we jump into today’s top plays – we have the pleasure of bringing you an NBA DFS FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft with $50 in NBA DFS tickets up for grabs – get in now before it fills!

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Lonzo Ball, Lakers 

Ball was not my first choice for this spot. In fact, Rajon Rondo was written up and ready to roll out there and then he got ruled out late Wednesday evening. Since he and LeBron are ruled out, I almost feel like I have to play Ball in this spot. He’s going to get a boatload of minutes with two ball handlers absent from the lineup. He does see a decent usage bump of three percent without those two on the floor.

Ball can be inconsistent but he also sees De’Aaron Fox defense. That’s been a spot that’s been good to us for basically the whole season and Fox is also in the top 20 in turnovers. Ball is averaging about a steal and a half a game so he could back into some points in that aspect as well over the course of the game.

Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, Celtics

Fade – Ben Simmons, Sixers 

The Sixers are heading into Utah tonight and I’m probably not going to tangle with Simmons all that much. He’s kind of an odd player, with his usage actually being fourth on the team since Jimmy Butler got to the squad. That’s right, even J.J. Redick has a higher usage rate than Simmons.

Now, that doesn’t mean that he can’t pile up some fantasy points but at his current price tag, he almost has to triple-double to pay it off. This past game saw him go into overtime and fall just two assists short but yet he only would have hit 5x at the DK price. I can’t see why you have to spend that amount of salary for an outcome that isn’t exactly likely.

Honorable Mention – De’Aaron Fox, Kings

Shooting Guard

Top Play – Eric Gordon, Rockets 

If Harden is out the likelihood of Gordon being the highest owned player on the slate would become very high. When both CP3 and Harden are off the floor, Gordon owns a 35.2 percent usage rate and a FPPM of 0.92. He’ll be running the offense but even if Harden winds up playing, Gordon seems like a safe bet for at least 32 minutes.

Yes, the Celtics are a good defensive squad but the opportunity for Gordon will be there and he’s attempted at least 17 shots in the past three games. The price hasn’t really moved either and I’m fine taking my chances with Gordon with Harden in. You won’t need me to tell you to play him if Harden is out.

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Jazz(especially on DK)

Fade – Khris Middleton, Bucks

To be 100 percent transparent, I might have a lineup with Middleton in it. The best attribute for Middleton is his shooting and it’s been dreadful these past two games. In fact, it’s been terrible for the past 10 games altogether. Hitting the three is a nice bonus on DK because you get a half point for each field goal made. Middleton is just 18-68(26%) from deep in his last 10 contests and that’s not going to get it done. That’s a solid 10 percent under what he’s shooting on the season so even though the price isn’t that bad, he makes me pretty nervous.

The reason I might have a lineup that includes him is because that shooting can’t continue to be that bad. It’ll come around at some point and you want to be on board when it does at a low ownership. Still, if you play cash and/or one lineup, Middleton shouldn’t be a part of it tonight.

Honorable Mention – C.J. McCollum, Blazers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays Small Forward

Top Play – Kevin Durant, Warriors 

The Warriors really haven’t looked like themselves lately and there’s probably going to be a game where they put their foot down and remind the league just how good they are when the big four is healthy and ready to roll. This could be the spot for Durant if nobody else because the Blazers have been getting crushed by wings all season. They’ve given up the most points, fifth most rebounds and the second most DK points to small forwards on the season. Golden State is coming off an embarrassing loss at home and I highly doubt that happens again.

Especially if I don’t have to worry about fitting Harden into a lineup, Durant might be the best stud to pay up for, especially at a significant discount from both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. You won’t continue to get Durant at this price in a home game for long.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Kuzma, Lakers who sees 32.7 percent usage and 1.26 FPPM without LeBron and Rondo on the floor(Lance Stephenson on the cheap end)

Fade – Gordon Hayward, Celtics

Okay, this is the last time for the next little while that I’ll use Hayward. I’m truly not picking on the guy but I will admit to falling into the trap of playing him based on price alone. Hayward is a solid NBA player on a good team but he is lost right now. When a player is under 20 percent usage rate and flirting with 0.90 FPPM, he just needs to be scratched off the list.

Will I likely miss a 40 point outburst, possibly as soon as tonight? Yes but I’m comfortable with my process of not having to eat five or six terrible games to get that one reward. Houston isn’t the best matchup either so there’s no reason to think this is a slump busting game for Hayward.

Honorable Mention – Joe Ingles, Jazz

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays Power Forward

Top Play – Noah Vonleh, Knicks 

It’s another night where power forward is kind of weak and Vonleh stands out among the group. Is it point chasing since we just saw this game on Christmas Day? Perhaps, but Vonleh really has been impressive through a large part of the season and the only thing that prevents him from getting minutes is foul trouble. Even though the Bucks are a good rebounding team in general, Vonleh was able to scoop up 14 the first time around and has snagged at least seven in eight of the last 10 games.

It also might help that Brook Lopez drags Enes Kanter a little further away from the basket than the Knicks would like so that clears more space for Vonleh to do his thing. Even after approaching 40 DK points, he only saw his price rise by a mere $400. That’s not enough to put me off him tonight.

Honorable Mention – Marcus Morris, Celtics

Fade – Al-Farouq Aminu, Blazers

The past two games have been good for Aminu because the minutes have come back to him but there’s not much of a guarantee that remains the same tonight. He can go as low as 25 and as high as the 37 he’s seen in some games lately, which explains why the overall average remains basically the same from last year. Realistically, he’s the same player almost all the way across the board but the consistency has been lacking. I also don’t typically mess with Draymond Green.

Whatever is bugging the Warriors won’t last and they’ll be out to prove a point tonight. Green is still an excellent defensive player and the Warriors are giving up the seventh fewest DK points to the position. There’s not much upside here on paper and I will go elsewhere for value.

Honorable Mention – Nemanja Bjelica, Kings

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays Center

Top Play – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings

I’m not always one to chase players on back to back situations but I’ll make an exception for this spot. The Kings and Lakers game should be a total track meet, since both teams play at a very high pace. I wouldn’t be surprised if the over/under approached 240 and on a five gamer, options are naturally a little limited. Cauley-Stein gets to see a Lakers interior that ranks in the bottom five in rebounds and in the bottom half of the league in points allowed in the paint.

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Now, Sacramento isn’t better in this categories but it’s still a soft matchup for Cauley-Stein and the game should be close with no LeBron. This is kind of a letdown spot for the young Lakers as well since they just walked out of Golden State with a win so even on a back to back, Cauley-Stein might just be my favorite center on the slate.

Honorable Mention – Ivaca Zubac, Lakers

Fade – Clint Capela, Rockets 

This is likely an even easier call if Harden sits even though in fairness, Capela is fairly stagnant without CP3 and Harden in 62 minutes this year. I just don’t see how he’s going to get the ball consistently if Harden is out and Gordon and Rivers are shooting everything in sight. Make no mistake, that’s going to be a lot of the offense between those two players but even if Harden plays, I’m not sure Capela would look that much better.

The Celtics given up the seventh fewest DK points to the position in part because Al Horford is a solid defender. The other part is the Celtics are just a good defensive squad period and they are strong in the paint. They only allow the ninth fewest points to opposing centers in the paint and that’s the only area that Capela is going to be shooting from.

Honorable Mention – Enes Kanter, Knicks

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