DraftKings NBA Picks December 28: Build around the Brow

NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 09: Luke Kornet #2 of the New York Knicks passes against JR Smith #5 and Larry Nance Jr. #22 of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second half at Madison Square Garden on April 9, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks December 28: Build around the Brow

Our DraftKings NBA slate doubles for Friday with 2/3 of the league in action tonight, and a lot of the same matchups as Wednesday. We can’t just plug and play though. Some prices went haywire with the inflation of a double overtime game. Yesterday’s five game slate actually had more players priced as superstars on it. Should we take any of those tonight?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($10,900): If Paul George manages to miss this game, I think we have to play Westbrook, even against Phoenix. Say this is a blowout even without George. Do we really think Westbrook plays less than 30 minutes or gets under 50 DraftKings points? I don’t. And if the game manages to stay close, well, we bought in on the ground floor of 40 minutes of Westbrook. There isn’t much of a downside here. However, if George plays, I’m not a huge fan of this. Westbrook only had 49.75 in 30 minutes in the first meeting with PG in there.

Kemba Walker ($9,100): This is part of the double overtime price hike, but honestly, Walker had pretty good numbers even before the overtimes. I would say he is one of the players that is more likely to come close to Wednesday’s production. However, the value potential is much lower with his price in this range.

Honorable Mention:

Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,300): Dinwiddie shredded Charlotte for 60.5 DraftKings points in 41 minutes on Wednesday. While I would say that he wont get 41 minutes again, I would say that Dinwiddie is probably a lock for 40 DraftKings points. That’s a really good return on this price range. I would trust Dinwiddie more than Russell since his value is pretty constant no matter what Russell does.

Derrick Rose ($7,100): There is no narrative here, just one of the worst defensive point guards in the world. Rose continues to play very well running the team with Teague out. That wont change here. I don’t know that Minnesota is really capable of blowing anyone out, but we will find out here. At any rate, I’ll be shocked if Rose doesn’t break 40. That’s how good of a matchup this is.

Kris Dunn ($6,900): “Defense? We don’t need no stinking defense!” – Washington Wizards. As per usual, I’m paraphrasing from a band you’ve never heard of, but that’s a discussion for another day. The Wizards have allowed the second most points in the entire NBA. The Bulls aren’t always the most reliable source of scoring, but they can rack up points in a hurry, and are really only missing Portis right now. A Bulls stack is not the worst idea I’ve heard.

Dark Horses:

Lonzo Ball ($5,900): Ball absolutely destroyed the Kings last night and statistically the Clippers are even worse against the point than the Kings are. The really telling thing here is that Ball racked up 37 minutes with Rondo out. Expect big minutes and big production from Ball again tonight.

J.J. Barea ($5,100): The status of Dennis Smith is going to affect whether I’m interested in Barea or Doncic. Barea still comes off the bench, but he’s playing 30 minutes and scoring almost at will. The veteran continue to hit value with regularity while Smith is out. Barea slowed down the last time Smith was back in action, so if Smith returns, I’m off of Barea.

Monte Morris ($4,700): You can look at the matchup and fade him if you want, but Morris has been over 5x value in every game with Gary Harris out. The matchup hasn’t mattered. What Murray has or has not done hasn’t mattered. That makes Morris a great value pick for cash games, and gives him a solid role in GPP lineups as well.

My pick: Ball(PG), Barea(G); Dunn(PG), Ball(G)

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 18: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on December 18, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jrue Holiday ($8,900): Holiday is one of those guys that is so consistent that he almost goes unnoticed. Of course, it helps that he has arguably the best fantasy contributor on his team. Whatever the Pelicans are doing, it works for fantasy purposes. Holiday has at least 5x value even at this price in all but one of the last nine games and two of his last 13.

Luka Doncic ($8,700): Doncic came up a rebound shy of a triple double on Wednesday. He just keeps getting better and better, and the return of Dennis Smith is probably going to stunt his ascension. If Smith is in, I’ll let someone else roll the dice with Doncic. There are plenty of other places to spend the money.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams ($6,600): Lou Will has at least 40 DraftKings points in three of four games since his return. In the other game, he had 14. I’m willing to overlook that one, especially since the Lakers have issues defending the off guard. Perhaps the surprising thing about this is that Williams is doing all of this in 26 minutes or less!

Zach LaVine ($6,500): Wow, LaVine looks cheap. Cheap enough for me to want to build a nice balanced lineup. He put up 33.75 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes in his return to action after two weeks off on Wednesday. The Bulls are returning LaVine to the starting five against arguably the worst defense in the league. Count me in!

Tyler Johnson ($6,000): After a slow first couple of games back, Johnson seems to be back on his normal track here. He has 67.75 DraftKings points over the last couple of games. Cleveland has had issues defending both guard positions this year, so I expect another strong game from Johnson even though he is back in a bench role with McGruder back in the fold.

Dark Horses:

Dennis Schroder ($5,300): Schroder’s numbers have been down lately, but it’s hard to ignore what he’s done to Phoenix this year. In the three games so far, Schroder has averaged 37.5 DraftKings points per game. Now, the issue with that is that Westbrook missed two of those games. However, Schroder still played nearly 30 minutes in the other matchup due to the lopsided nature of the score. Schroder looks like a pretty good value play here.

Josh Hart ($4,200): After an inauspicious start last night, Hart rebounded to have a strong second half and finish with a solid 27 DraftKings points. That’s over 6x value for his price. Hart should continue to start while LeBron is sidelined, and he is a great value pick in this price range. I trust him a lot more than Stephenson, and Hart is $200 cheaper!

Torrey Craig ($3,700): The minutes are going to be there for Craig so long as Harris and Barton are out, but that doesn’t mean the production will be. Craig doesn’t even average seven shots per game with Harris out, so he is mostly just out there because the Nuggets have to have five guys. However, with him playing more than 30 minutes, there’s usually enough counting stats to make him an interesting play.

My pick: Schroder(SG), Hart(UTIL); LaVine(SG), Hart(UTIL)

BOSTON, MA – NOVEMBER 16: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors dribbles against Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics during the first half at TD Garden on November 16, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($9,900): My take on the Thunder is simple. If George is in, play him and fade Westbrook. George has at least 43 DraftKings points in every game this month, and has been over 50 in six of the last seven. If George sits this one out, and hey, there’s no reason to push him against a team like the Suns, use Schroder and at least consider Westbrook.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,200): Kawhi has averaged 51.5 DraftKings points in the six games he has played in sans Kyle Lowry this year. This is not a superb matchup for Leonard, but Miami wasn’t either. It really doesn’t matter. When Lowry is out, play Kawhi. An ideal lineup would be to pair Kawhi with either George or A.D., but Leonard needs to be a core part of any build.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Richardson ($7,400): Richardson is a cash game staple since he is always in the 30’s for DraftKings points. However, that is what often gets him ignored when I create GPP lineups. There is a lot more upside for the price available. However, if you like to build your roster with less risk, Richardson is your man.

Danilo Gallinari ($6,700): Before injuries took most of Gallo’s last two seasons, he was one of the premier snipers in the NBA. He is getting that reputation back. The Clippers seem to be the perfect situation for him with Harris and Harrell inside with LouWill to help space on the perimeter. Gallinari gets a bunch of good shots a game, and he knocks down a large percentage of them. In a good matchup like this, Gallinari is a real threat to hit 40 DraftKings points.

Kent Bazemore ($6,100): Bazemore has been a beast with Taurean Prince still sidelined. He is averaging 17 points, four rebounds, five assists, and two steals per game with Prince out. That computes to almost 35 DraftKings points per game. That leaves Bazemore as a constant threat for 6x value, and he almost always comes with low ownership.

Dark Horses:

Trevor Ariza ($5,600): Ariza is good for 30 DraftKings points every time he takes the court unless he’s playing a big front like Indiana. He even held his own against Detroit. The Bulls are pretty athletic up front, but not all that big. Ariza is a sure 30 here as well. He is probably more appealing in cash games, but I can see making room for him in a GPP as well.

Marvin Williams ($5,300): Williams roughed up the Nets for 38 DraftKings points just two nights ago. The chances that Williams sees 44 minutes of court time again aren’t good, but there is no reason to believe that Williams can’t hit around 30 DraftKings points here. That puts him close enough to 6x value to use as a value play.

Juancho Hernangomez ($4,800): I didn’t like this matchup for Juancho on Wednesday. He must have read the article because he ravaged the Spurs for 49.25 DraftKings points. It was a huge double double for Juancho as he established a new career high in scoring. I doubt this is another career game for Juancho, but he should still clear 6x value with ease.

My pick: Leonard(SF); N/A

CHARLOTTE, NC – DECEMBER 12: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons reacts against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on December 12, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,600): What kind of a season has it been for Davis? He put up 32.5 DraftKings points on Dallas Wednesday night and that was his lowest total of the last three games. Don’t overthink this. Why ask why? Just play Anthony Davis. Okay, so it doesn’t have the same ring to it as those old Bud Dry commercials, but the principal holds true.

Blake Griffin ($8,400): I’m actually not a huge fan of this matchup for Blake, but whenever I see his price this low, I take notice. This seems awfully cheap for Blake, even against Indiana. I wouldn’t fade Davis (or Kawhi, for that matter) for Blake, but he is worth considering at this price if you can cram him in there under the cap.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Kuzma ($7,700): As expected, Kuzma was a beast with LeBron out. He racked up 48.25 Draftkings points on the Kings in 40 minutes of court time. The Lakers seem poised to ride their young core with LeBron out, but it also looks like they play better together than they did last year. Right now, Kuzma, Lonzo, and Hart are all underpriced. Use them before the corrections kick in!

Tobias Harris ($7,600): Not that LeBron is a superb defensive player, but Harris not having to tangle with him has to be considered a plus for the Clippers, and DFS players alike. Harris is averaging almost 5x value of over the month of December. This is a good matchup for Harris, so he has ample upside to use in GPP formats as well.

Lauri Markkanen ($7,200): This is a smash spot for Markkanen against the undersized Wizards. That may work against him a little bit, but Markkanen seems to struggle more with teams that throw big bodies at him like Minnesota did. Cleveland and Orlando went small at him with no success. Washington doesn’t have a choice. They have to go small, making this a big spot for the youngster.

Dark Horses:

Robert Covington ($6,200): Covington had trouble with his shot early on in his Minnesota career, but he is shooting nearly 50% from three over his last half dozen games. Covington isn’t going to net you massive numbers at this price, but they are definitely going to be good enough to make Covington a nice mid range pick.

Rodions Kurucs ($5,200): Kurucs is left at a very exploitable price here. DraftKings is coming along slowly on him, and we have to take advantage of this. Kurucs has 108.75 DraftKings points over the last three games. That’s well over 7x value. Kurucs just faced this Charlotte team and put up a cool 41 DraftKings points on them Wednesday night. He is a must play at this point.

Markieff Morris ($4,400): I kind of want to go after the Bulls front here. They aren’t a particularly strong unit, but the Wizards have very little to go at them with. That’s where Kieff comes in. Morris has at least 26 DraftKings points in three straight games while getting good minutes up front. That should continue here against the Bulls, which makes Morris a pretty intriguing value play.

My pick: Davis(PF), Kurucs(F); Markkanen(PF), Kuzma(SF), Kurucs(F)

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 05: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves chases a loose ball during the game against the LA Clippers at Staples Center on November 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600): The Hawks don’t have anyone that can contain Towns, so this is another huge spot for Towns. He went for 20 and 20 against the Bulls on Wednesday, the second time he has done so this season. The first time was also against the Bulls. The Hawks are marginally better up front, but probably not enough to keep Towns out of the 50’s.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,200): Ibaka wasn’t much of a deterrent to Vuce in the first matchup. Vucevic put up 42.5 DraftKings points on the Raptors in 33 minutes in that first meeting. The price is good on Vucevic, and his output per dollar could rival that of Towns if you don’t have that kind of money left.

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Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($7,900): Randle “only” had 34.5 DraftKings points on Dallas Wednesday night, but the thing to take away from that is that he played 37 minutes and took 16 shots. Randle’s shot wasn’t falling, but if it is tonight, he’ll have no problem getting back to 5x value. The peripheral numbers support this.

DeAndre Jordan ($6,800): Jordan dropped 40 on the Pelicans a couple of nights ago, so there really isn’t any reason that he can’t do it again. Jordan is reasonably priced here, and though he isn’t a sexy name, the numbers speak for themselves.

Steven Adams ($6,800): The one game that Adams missed against Phoenix this year is the one that Westbrook played. This is another great spot for Adams, but it is for the rest of the team as well. I can see using Adams here and there, but I’m really only interested if George sits. That would open up some more action for Adams on the interior.

Dark Horses:

Montrezl Harrell ($6,400): Harrell dominated the Kings on Wednesday, and the Lakers aren’t a much better team on the inside. JaVale McGee is likely out again, and as good as Zubac has been offensively, they miss the defense of McGee. They will here as well when Harrell eats them alive.

Wendell Carter ($4,800): Zubac was a huge letdown last night, and it wouldn’t really matter if his price was still $4,000. It’s not. Zubac dropping a dud at his price now really hurts. I’m more inclined to move down to Carter against an undersized Wizards front. There is a lot more value potential here.

Maxi Kleber ($3,400): The Mavs counteracted the behemoths up front for New Orleans by starting Kleber alongside Jordan. Kleber enjoyed moderate success, putting up 26.25 DraftKings points, including six blocks, in his 24 minutes. If Kleber starts again, he is a really good value pick. If he doesn’t start, we really can’t trust his minutes.

My pick: Kleber(C); Harrell(C)

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