Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Friday December 28

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 31: Johnathan Williams #19 and Josh Hart #3 of the Los Angeles Lakers defend against J.J. Barea #5 of the Dallas Mavericks during the first half of a game at Staples Center on October 31, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) Fantasy Basketball Top Plays /

Welcome back for another edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have a nice 10 game slate on tap with some high end studs available to us for NBA DFS tonight!

Tonights’ slate is a bit of an odd bag as it features a couple matchups we just saw two nights ago and a shorthanded Lakers squad on a back to back. One of the biggest factors of the whole slate is the status of Paul George. He’s a game-time decision tonight, and if he sat Russell Westbrook would be the chalkiest player on the slate. That would be rightfully so but we also might not know that until the majority of games have tipped off, making the situation a little murky. Let’s dig in with the reminder that just because a player is featured here, that doesn’t mean you should be playing him over a stud. It’s just a player that I love that will be a large part of my lineups, regardless of how you choose to fit the pieces around him. Let’s jump into tonight’s Fantasy Basketball Top Plays.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – J.J. Barea, Mavericks

I absolutely love the duo of Barea and Luka Doncic tonight and might have both as a staple in cash games. Wesley Matthews has been ruled out and Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable with a wrist injury. I made this joke on the RotoCurve podcast, but I think the injury is called Doncic-itis. Without Matthews and DSJ on the floor, Barea is at 30.3 usage and 1.35 FPPM in 370 minutes. He scorched the Pelicans for over 30 DK points just two nights ago and I think that outcome is very much in the realm of possibility tonight. What is most encouraging is he played 29 minutes in that game, nine more than his season average. You would think that’s going to happen again if the Cavs are that shorthanded and if Smith Jr. sits again, Barea is close to a lock for me.

Honorable Mention – Derrick Rose, Wolves and Darren Collison if Victor Oladipo happens to be out

Fade – Fred VanVleet, Raptors

I think that with Kyle Lowry already ruled out, VanVleet will get some attention and that’s understandable. He plays big minutes when filling in for Lowry when the game stays close but his price is at a point where he can easily flop. You need close to 36 DK points to feel good about playing him and the Magic are quietly a tough spot for point guards. They allow the fifth fewest real points, second fewest assists and the seventh fewest DK point overall. That’s not something that I want to use a backup player against.

Honorable Mention – Trae Young, Hawks

ATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 27: Zach LaVine #8 of the Chicago Bulls attacks the basket against Dewayne Dedmon #14 of the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on October 27, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Zach LaVine, Bulls

If you play cash games, I think LaVine might wind up being one of the chalkier plays of the evening and he absolutely should be. This is a player that was well over $8,000 on DK when the Bulls were dealing with injuries and we’re getting at an incredible discount of $6,500. Even with Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn on the floor, LaVine still leads in both usage and FPPM but is the cheapest among those three players. Now we add into the mix that he faces off against the Wizards, who are the second worst defensive team in the league and we have one of the best bargains on the evening. LaVine played 26 minutes last game and poured in 28 real points. We’ve always targeted bad basketball teams that can’t play defense and this game certainly fits that bill. LaVine is way too cheap this evening.

Honorable Mention – Luka Doncic(already mentioned), Jrue Holiday, Pelicans

Fade – Devin Booker, Suns

There’s no line to this game because of the uncertainty of the Paul George injury but I’m not terribly excited to use Booker. I’m never going to totally talk you off of him if you want to use him because he’s a threat to score 40 real points every single time he steps on the court. In fairness, the Suns are probably going to need that effort to keep up with the Thunder, regardless of George. The duo or Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams could win this game on their own and I don’t want to pay up for Booker to potentially only get three quarters of action. The slate is too big to make him a core play this evening.

Honorable Mention – D’Angelo Russell, Nets

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 16: Robert Covington #33 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts to being called for a foul against the Portland Trail Blazers during the fourth quarter of the game at Target Center on November 16, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Minnesota Timberwolves are debuting their City Jerseys honoring the late artist Prince. The Timberwolves defeated the Trail Blazers 112-96. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Robert Covington, Wolves

So Kawhi Leonard was also in the running here because when Kyle Lowry is off the floor, he’s got a usage over 30 percent and a FPPM over 1.30. His price on DK also went down $300 so he’s one of the stronger plays of the night. However, I want to stretch past the most obvious most days and Covington stands out above the rest for a couple reasons. One, he just plays boatloads of minutes. No matter how good or bad you are as a player, being on the court is the most important aspect one can possess. Additionally, Covington gets a fast-paced game against a young squad that leads the NBA in turnovers per game at 18.5. Covington sits at 31st overall in minutes per game and third in steals per game. Especially on FanDuel where they are worth three points, he could hit double digits in steals alone.

Honorable Mention – Kawhi

Fade – Josh Richardson, Heat

One of the things that caught my eye about this game as a whole came from the podcast when we recorded last night. This can obviously shift through the day, but the line opened at 198 before being taken down as of this writing. That total in this year’s NBA is crumbs compared to other games. For instance, the Mavs and the Hawks games both have totals of at least 230 points. That’s the equivalent of an NFL game being at around 35-36 points for a total. Not only does Vegas not like the game as a whole, Richardson and Justice Winslow are at 0.95 and 0.92 FPPM respectively when Goran Dragic is off the floor. The difference in price is $1,600 on DK and $1,100 on FD. I’m just going to put that salary to a different portion of my lineup and play Winslow instead.

Honorable Mention – T.J. Warren, Suns

ATLANTA, GA – NOVEMBER 19: Montrezl Harrell #5 of the LA Clippers reacts after drawing a foul on a basket against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on November 19, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Montrezl Harrell, Clippers

I’m going to admit that I have a sizable soft spot for Harrell. I don’t know what it is, but I just love watching this guy play basketball when I can(not often in the Burgh). He’s a FPPM monster at 1.22 so even though the minutes can be a little low, the production very rarely is. Trez is clearly recovery from the shoulder injury that was bugging him a bit ago and he dominated the Kings two nights ago, racking up 30 DK points in just a half of basketball. Harrell is 12th in paint touches in limited minutes and the Lakers are in the bottom 10 in the league in points and rebounds given up in the paint. They don’t have anyone that can hang with Harrell, as Tyson Chandler can’t match the athleticism and Ivaca Zubac looked like a bench player last night. Harrell should be locked into 25 minutes and if the game can stay close, he has a shot at 30+.

Honorable Mention – Larry Nance, Jr., Cavs

Fade – Julius Randle, Pelicans

This feels a little risky because we already know that Nikola Mirotic has been ruled out. Typically that has meant that you just play Randle and call it a day because the trio of Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Randle just soaked up everything. Randle has hit a bit of a slump since he hasn’t been over 45 DK points since the ninth of this month but the price is as high as ever. It’s not always the best way but I want Randle to flash that upside a little more before I start paying for him again. It’s not even a spot that we can blame the minutes on either because they have stayed pretty solid as well. Dallas is just kind of an average matchup so there’s not much that screams to play him at his current tag, so I won’t.

Honorable Mention – John Collins, Hawks

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 06: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves scores over Danilo Gallinari #8 of the LA Clippers during the first half at Staples Center on December 6, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Karl Anthony-Towns, Wolves

Coming off a monster 20/20 game against the Bulls, Towns checks in as the man I believe to be the best center option on the entire slate. The Hawks have just bled points to centers all season long, giving up the eighth most DK points to the position on the season. Towns is a bit of a different animal than the centers we have targets in the past because he averages only 5.7 paint touches a contest.

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However, he make sup for the lack of the paint touches with a 28.5 percent usage and a 1.41 FPPM without both Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler on the court. Only five centers average more minutes than KAT so I’m not even terribly concerned about the blowout factor here. The Wolves smacked the Bulls in this past game and Towns still saw plenty of minutes. Tonight should be no different.

Honorable Mention – Steven Adams, Thunder

Fade – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

Some night, I just don’t understand Jokic. The Nuggets are missing three starters/big minutes players and yet we still can’t get him to just shoot the ball. He took just five shots this past game when the Nuggets saw the Spurs and that makes absolutely no sense. Jokic tied for sixth on his own team in field goal attempts and something is seriously wrong when Torrey Craig is shooting more than Jokic.

The issue is when he’s not aggressive with his shot, it seems like the game as a whole suffers. It’s rare that he has a good game when the shot isn’t even being attempted so while the price is very fair for someone who has the ball in his hands the amount Jokic does, there’s more risk than it might look like on the surface. If he’s shooting, you’re in good shape. If he’s not, it’s going to be a long night, hoping for fantasy points that might not come.

Honorable Mention – DeAndre Jordan, Mavericks

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