NBA GPP Breakdown: Yahoo Edition – Friday 12/28

Yahoo NBA DFS: GPP Breakdown

Welcome to the second edition of the Yahoo NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m Thunder Dan and I love playing NBA DFS. I usually write exclusively about FanDuel here at FantasyCPR, but today I wanted to do another breakdown that is exclusively geared towards Yahoo since they have yet another big NBA DFS tournament tonight.

On Christmas Day, Yahoo had a massive 37,500 entry 20 dollar tournament with a 1 million-dollar guaranteed prize pool. They’ve been running “guaranteed overlay” tournaments where they are virtually charging no rake and actually adding extra money to the prize pools on top of what the entry fees total. The Christmas day tournament only ended up with about 26k entries, so Yahoo ended up paying almost 50k of their own money when it was all said and done.

Wednesday night, Yahoo ran another guaranteed overlay contest and it filled.  Tonight, they’re running another 10-dollar, 10-max entry contest that pays out 25k to the winner and adding 25k of their own money to the prize pool. I love these contests!

Most contests on FanDuel or Draftkings with that big of a prize pool are 150 max-entry contests. Yahoo could fill these contests by allowing veteran players to enter dozens of lineups, but they want to maintain a focus on players from all skill and experience levels. They’re also offering bonuses to players who deposit for the first time and making a real concerted effort to bring more players to their site.

Personally, I’ve been playing DFS on Yahoo for years. While their format and pricing is different, I’ve always enjoyed playing on their site. One of the biggest knocks on Yahoo (and other second-tier DFS sites like FantasyDraft) is the lack of big contests. But that seems to be changing, and that’s why I’m writing going to continue this Yahoo series. Because I think Yahoo has a format that is fun and challenging and gives more average players an opportunity to win!

Yahoo NBA DFS: Yahoo Strategy

Yahoo NBA DFS features the same roster setup as Draftkings (PG-SG-G-SF-PF-F-C-Utility) but players do not have multi-position eligibility. They actually have the same scoring system as FanDuel, with steals and blocks being worth 3 points and none of those 3-point, double-double or triple-double bonuses you get on DK.

The salary cap is 200 dollars for your 8 roster spots. The minimum price for a player is 10 dollars, while some of the highest priced players may cost as much as 60 dollars.  This pricing system is unlike the system used by FanDuel, Draftkings, or FantasyDraft.  Anthony Davis costs 58 dollars tonight, which is 29% of your entire budget. It might seem cost-prohibitive to use him tonight, but consider that only he and maybe Russell Westbrook or Kawhi Leonard are the only players who really have 70+ point ceilings.

The high cost of elite players is offset by the fact that there are dozens of players priced between 10-15 dollars and usually quite a few viable minimum-priced 10-dollar plays on any given slate.  You’re not likely to find that many viable 3500 plays on DK or FD as often.  This pricing lends itself well to the “stars and scrubs” roster construction in which it’s fairly easy to plug-in your favorite 2-3 higher priced star players and then fill in around them with value plays.

That’s not necessarily the optimal strategy on any given night and I do think you should be cautious when using 10-dollar players as there’s no “drop score” like on FanDuel. The winning GPP lineups usually score 350 or more fantasy points, so you’re looking for your lineup to score roughly 1.75x the 200 dollars you paid for them.

I’m going to run through my favorite plays on the slate at each pricing tier and briefly discuss what kind of output we are looking for from each of the tiers as it relates to roster construction and building winning lineups.

Yahoo NBA DFS: High-End Plays

One thing you’ll notice about high-priced star players on Yahoo is that they are priced at about a dollar per average fantasy point.  For example, Anthony Davis is priced at 58 dollars and is producing an average of 61 Yahoo points per game.

We are looking to secure some raw points here, and on a lot of slates, it makes sense to pay up for whoever we think the highest scorer is going to be.  We want these players to outperform their price tags and do better than just 1x, but there’s no specific number we are looking for (the 6-7x rule that we apply to FD and DK just doesn’t apply here). Here’s who I like for 30 dollars or more tonight.

Anthony Davis ($58)

It’s the same matchup for Davis tonight against Dallas and he just posted 60 Yahoo points against them on Wednesday. I think that was actually pretty low considering he only had one block and one steal in that game and he averages around four combined blocks/steals a game.

Russell Westbrook ($53)

Westy gets an elite matchup here against Phoenix and the Thunder could be without Paul George. If George is out, then look for Westy to go back to his ball-dominant ways and take over this game. If PG13 plays, I’m likely to play Davis and Leonard instead.

Kawhi Leonard ($48)

We get point-Kawhi again tonight as Kyle Lowry has already been ruled out. Leonard is an elite play when his lil’ buddy Lowry is out of the lineup and he faces a poor defensive team in the Orlando Magic.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($41)

KAT smashed the Bulls to the tune of 20-20 on Wednesday and his priced didn’t move. Now he gets the Hawks defense and a massive pace boost tonight. He’s certainly interesting here in this spot.

Luka Doncic ($35)

Are you on the Luka hype train yet? The rookie Euro sensation continues to dazzle while Dennis Smith Jr. is out of the lineup. With Wes Matthews out and DSJ highly questionable, I like Luka (who is probable) to continue to put up big numbers against the Pelicans defense. He’s outperformed his price tag in 9 of his last 10 games and nearly hit 50 fantasy points Wednesday in only 31 minutes.

Yahoo NBA DFS: Mid-Tier Plays

I’m going to define mid-range players as those who are priced between 16-29 dollars. There are some really great tournament plays here as these players are capable of pushing for 2-3x their value. These are also players that often get overlooked when the “Stars and Scrubs” builds are popular.

Derrick Rose ($27)

D-Rose has possibly the best matchup on the slate and is too cheap here for his role as the Wolves main scorer and playmaker with Jeff Teague out.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($24)

If you’ve ever read my articles before you know I have a thing for Dinwiddie. He’s just a really good player who very few people know about. But he might be popular tonight after he dropped 55 on the Hornets last game. I don’t expect to do that again, but 35-45 Yahoo points is well within the range of outcomes even in regulation.

Lonzo Ball ($23)

I hope you played chalk-Lonzo last night as he had a monster triple-double and 55 Yahoo points. There’s no real good reason not to play him tonight other than he’ll be super popular again and game theory suggests we pivot to some other similarly priced players who could exceed his output.

Kent Bazemore ($21)

Baze has been really good for Atlanta for almost three weeks now, as he’s taken on a larger role in their offense with Taurean Prince out and rookie Trae Young struggling at times. He’s coming off a game in which he scored 32 actual points and he’s got plenty of upside to go 2x or more at this price.

Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrel ($20 each)

I love pairing these two guys together. They both play off the bench with the second unit and they tend to correlate well and both have good games together. Lou had nearly 40 in the Clippers game on Wednesday, while Montrezl had 54 and 7 blocks/steals. Even if we think the Clippers wax the Lakers without LeBron tonight, these guys should get a lot of fourth-quarter run while the starters sit.

Domantas Sabonis ($20)

I love Sabonis almost as much as Spencer Dinwiddie. He’s an undervalued player and capable of putting up big numbers even while coming off the bench (like Dinwiddie, too). I like using him here and hoping that Myles Turner struggles with Andre Drummond, which would allow Sabonis to get some extra run and smash this price.

Jerami Grant ($17)

Grant is a stat-stuffer who can get double-digit Yahoo points just in defensive stats. Recently, he’s been obliterating this price due to more consistent scoring (around 15 points per game in last 7 games) and rebounding (7 boards per game over last three games). If Paul George sits, that means he’s likely in line for a few more shots, too.

J.J. Barea ($16)

J.J. is my man tonight. I love him as a fantasy player. He’s a dynamo out there on the court and an excellent per-minute producer. The issue is usually that coach Rick Carlisle keeps him on a short leash and limits his minutes to around 20 per game, but with the Mavs so short-handed in the backcourt Barea saw 28 minutes Wednesday night and if he’s playing that much he’s going to easily crush this price.

Justise Winslow ($16)

The newly appointed point guard for the Heat, Winslow is playing 30+ minutes and easily making value at this price. I don’t want all that much exposure to this game, but Winslow and James Johnson are pretty safe bets.

Yahoo NBA DFS: Value Plays

I going to define “value plays” as those that are 15 dollars or less. There’s also some great value down here and we usually see several cheap guys go 3-4x on winning GPP rosters. But be careful, because not all cheap plays are good plays! Here are my favorite values tonight.

Dewayne Dedmon ($15)

Dedmon is in a great spot tonight against KAT, who doesn’t play much defense. No Alex Len means no competition for minutes and we saw him play 37 minutes in Wednesday’s game and put up 45 Yahoo points.

Monte Morris ($13)

I love playing this dude and for some reason, Yahoo hasn’t priced him up as quickly as the other sites. He’s functioning as the Nuggets sixth man right now, playing 25+ minutes off the bench. He’s gone over 2x this price in seven straight games and just dropped 28 Yahoo points against the Spurs two days ago.

Rodions Kurucs ($12)

The European rookie continues to ball, posting 40.9 Yahoo points in Wednesday’s double OT win. He will be chalky here as people will chase that game, but he’s so cheap that it doesn’t matter all that much and he should smash this price.

Ivica Zubac ($12)

Zubac finally came crashing back to Earth last night, getting benched down the stretch for Tyson Chandler. However, tonight’s matchup is good against the Clippers and as long as JaVale McGee is out, I’m still interested in young Zubac.

Mason Plumlee ($12)

Plumlee’s price on Yahoo is ridiculous. He’s been starting for Denver for two weeks and regularly putting up 25 or more Yahoo points. He’s an easy play tonight and safer than Zubac.

Darius Miller ($10)

Miller let me down the other night, but the minutes were still there as he played 32 minutes Wednesday night.

James Johnson ($10)

“Neck-Tat” Johnson is minimum price, but starting for Miami and averaging 25 minutes a game in his last three games. He’s got 3x potential tonight against the Cavs.

Yahoo NBA DFS: Sample Lineup and Overview

There are two big totals today with Dallas-New Orleans and Minnesota-Atlanta both sitting at 230.  The Pelicans-Mavericks game should be heavily targeted and for good reason. I think we can go right back to Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis in that game and don’t forget about some of the solid values like J.J. Barea or Darius Miller. I love Derrick Rose and Karl-Anthony Towns in that Minnesota game, while Dewayne Dedmon is way too cheap with Alex Len already ruled out.

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I’m trying to avoid some of the Lakers chalk today if possible. They are playing a back to back tonight and even though they are short-handed with the LeBron, McGee, and Rondo injuries, I think they could be a trap. Lonzo Ball will be very popular after his big night last night, but I’d rather have some of the Clippers on the other side of that game.

There’s a weird situation tonight where we have three games that are rematches of games that just happened on Wednesday. Just be careful here, as many DFS players might go back to the same NBA players expecting similar results. I’m not saying you can’t use those guys who are in good spots, but NBA teams do make adjustments and it’s unlikely that all of those players in those three games replicate their output from Wednesday night.

Here’s what my first-look lineup looks like at 7:00 AM.

PG: Derrick Rose – $27

SG: J.J. Barea – $16

G: Lou Williams – $20

SF: Rodions Kurucs – $12

PF: Jerami Grant – $17

F: Luka Doncic – $35

C: Dewayne Dedmon – $15

Utility: Anthony Davis – $58

Thanks for reading! I highly recommend giving Yahoo NBA DFS a try to if you love playing NFL DFS they have another million-dollar tournament this weekend, too! Make sure you check out all the great content here at FantasyCPR, we’ve got you covered!