Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Saturday December 29

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have an eight game slate with a lot of teams on back to backs, so let’s dig in!

This is a very interesting slate with so many back to backs and there are two clear standouts up top with some very solid second tier options. I’ll try to mix in some of the write ups on this one, meaning I will have a couple of the studs but will try to find some lower owned plays that could really help create an edge. Let’s get moving and figure out who we need to target tonight in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!

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Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Monte Morris, Nuggets 

This might seem like it comes out of nowhere but Morris has been very solid lately and with the Nuggets still short-handed in a major way, Morris is locked into some nice minutes. Speaking of being shot, Malik Beasley left last night’s game and didn’t return. Jamaal Murray has been fighting through injury for the past couple of weeks.

Since December started, Morris is averaging almost 27 minutes a night and now gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns. They give up the seventh most DK points to the point guard position and Morris represents a nice salary saving option. For instance, if one wanted to try to jam in Anthony Davis and James Harden, you could try to take advantage of this spot. Murray is going to get a lot of the attention if he’s active but Morris cheaper and affords different options up top.

Honorable Mention – Kemba Walker, Hornets

Fade – Kyrie Irving, Celtics 

Irving has been on fire these past two games and the price is elevated a bit, especially on FanDuel. I normally won’t try to target players against the Grizzlies in Memphis and tonight will not be all that much different. Kyrie is averaging a little over 23 points and has a career high assist ratio.

However, he’s walking into a matchup that allows the fifth least real points and fourth fewest assists to point guards in basketball. The price isn’t terrible on DK but FD is almost a full fade for me. I would much rather spend the extra couple hundred dollars in that range and play Steph Curry  or Kemba from other games.

Honorable Mention – Damian Lillard, Blazers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays Shooting Guard

Top Play – James Harden, Rockets 

Yes, I do try to find some deeper plays but when a player like Harden is in a spot like this, I feel like it’s necessary to drive home just how important Harden can be on this slate. If you’ve read this before, you probably already know that when Chris Paul is off the floor, Harden has an astronomical usage rate and FPPM. When he and Russell Westbrook were putting up ridiculous fantasy numbers, he was routinely at least $12,500 on DK.

Tonight, he’s just $11,400 and on top of that, gets one of the best possible matchups on the board. The Pelicans play at one of the fastest paces in the league and they are also not very good defensively. If you play cash and frankly even in tournaments, fade Harden at your own peril. There is 80 DK point upside if he plays as he’s capable of.

Honorable Mention – DeMar DeRozan, Spurs

Fade – Bradley Beal, Wizards 

Beal turned into massive chalk after yesterday’s article was written because John Wall was ruled out during the day. I will say if Wall sits again on the back to back, I have no issue going right back to the well with Beal. It’s just too dangerous to fade if Wall is out. If Wall is in the lineup, I’m not likely to point chase from the previous day. Beal is in a weird middle ground in the pricing on FanDuel especially, as you can pay significantly less for Donovan Mitchell or find more money to go up to Jrue Holiday or Devin Booker.

Frankly, all of these options sound more appealing than going with Beal once again. The guard for the Wizards is already shooting just 34 percent from three and the Hornets allow the sixth lowest field goal percentage from that range. Only Wall being out would make me want to roster Beal this evening.

Honorable Mention – Jeremy Lamb, Hornets

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Kevin Durant, Warriors

Yes, I know that Durant was just featured here two days ago and as much as I try to bring some variety, it’s also about bringing the best plays and Durant is that player for tonight. One, SF is especially rough on FanDuel because you have to roster two of them. Secondly, he gets the same exact spot against the Blazers that he had the other night in which he destroyed them.

You might look at his fantasy output and assume it was overtime drive, but that’s not what happened. He was at 60 DK before the overtime period started but ended at just 62 so he was outstanding regardless. It’s not a surprise either, because the Blazers are the absolute worst against SF on DK. They also give up the second most real points and the third most rebounds, which fits Durant well. The price is still very fair for Durant tonight and he’s likely going to end as a core play for me.

Honorable Mention – Juancho Hernangomez, Nuggets

Fade – T.J. Warren, Suns

While we can’t just totally scared teams on back to backs tonight, we can look at trends for individual players on zero days rest and Warren doesn’t profile well in the small sample size that we have. Warren has played in this scenario four times this year and sees significant drops across the board. The minutes go down by around four, the points drop by three, and the three-point percentage drops by around 13 percentage points. That’s a lot of negatives to ignore so even on FanDuel where the choices are slim, it’s best to find a better option. I expected Rudy Gay to fit this profile but he’s actually seen an increase in many of his stats on back to backs. I would rather use him as well over Warren tonight.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Anderson, Grizzlies

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Larry Nance, Cavaliers 

Count me among the number of people who did not expect to write-up Larry Nance as a top play in the month of December. The Hawks have been struggling in the paint since tip-off of this season and that will continue tonight. After giving up a 70 DK point game to Karl Anthony-Towns last night, Nance draws the same matchup and averages about 5.7 paint touches a game, the exact same as KAT. I’m not suggesting Nance has 70 point upside, but he does have a chance at a very solid game in the 40’s. Nance also sees about 13.5 rebounding chances per game and Atlanta ranks 25th in the league in rebounding percentage. Cleveland is 17th since they took a bit of a tumble without Tristan Thompson but Nance still has the advantage on the glass.

Honorable Mention – Anthony Davis, Pelicans

Fade – Kevin Knox, Knicks 

The minutes might be there for the rookie, but I have a pretty hard time trusting him in this spot. First, he’s taking lessons from Tim Hardaway because he’s doing very little outside of scoring the ball and some rebounds. Going into Utah can be a little tough and the Jazz have allowed the sixth fewest real points to the power forward position. Regardless of whether Hardaway is active in this game or not, there’s not a lot of reasons to use Knox in a spot where he might struggle to score. All you need to do is look at this past game to see what the floor is. 12 real points only yielded about 21 fantasy points and that’s a disaster at his current price point. I’ll pass and play P.J. Tucker or Marvin Williams ahead of him.

Honorable Mention – Marcus Morris, Celtics

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets 

I’m not going to lie – myself and the man known as “Big Honey” haven’t exactly gotten along this year. I don’t know why that is, especially since Joker is one of my favorite NBA players. I have two NBA jerseys. One is Giannis and one is Jokic but my man always seems to want to let me down when I play him. I didn’t really want to use him yesterday and the sub-45 DK point performance justified that but I have routinely gone after Deandre Ayton. Anytime he’s up against a center worth their salt, I’m interested.

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The Suns and Nets are battling for the most points given up to centers for fantasy and Jokic couldn’t really find himself in a better spot. He’s still over 1.50 FPPM when all the injured players are out for Denver, frustrations aside. This is a pot where Jokic just has to come through and I’m not going to miss the 70 DK points he provides tonight.

Honorable Mention – Cody Zeller, Hornets

Fade – Al Horford, Celtics 

I’m not really trying to pick on the Celtics here but Horford isn’t in a great spot and has yet to see his minutes restriction lifted fully, it seems. He did play 30 against the Sixers but saw a drop the following game so perhaps he can go 30 if they absolutely need him to.

He’s yet to exceed 27 DK points since coming back so if nothing else, he doesn’t appear to be playing like he’s all the way back yet. Both of these teams are in the bottom eight against centers so Horford and Marc Gasol might just and up cancelling each other out. With seven other games to pick from, it’s hard to see rostering Horford even though the price is great on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

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