Kyler Murray’s NFL decision could hinge on Orange Bowl performance

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Kyler Murray may be a better MLB prospect, but what if he beats the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Orange Bowl? Could it mean NFL?

Kyler Murray is already a legend in Norman, Oklahoma. He was drafted in the top-10 by the Oakland Athletics in the 2019 MLB Draft. After backing up 2017 Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield on the gridiron, he made sure Boomer Sooner Nation got to claim another Heisman Trophy in 2018. He won it himself over two other stellar college quarterbacks in the Alabama Crimson Tide’s Tua Tagovailoa and the Ohio State Buckeyes’ Dwayne Haskins.

Initially, Murray said he would play one last college football season as Oklahoma’s starting quarterback before beginning his career as a baseball player in the A’s organization. However, could all of that change this holiday season? What happens if Murray defeats the No. 1 Crimson Tide in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Saturday night?

Yes, it will be a little bit of a stretch, as Oklahoma is the No. 4 national seed going up against the reigning national champions and top-seed in the Playoff. However, dual-threat quarterbacks like Murray have been Alabama head coach Nick Saban’s kryptonite for much of the College Football Playoff era. Murray fits the same mold of mobile signal callers that have beaten Saban like Nick Marshall, Johnny Manziel, Chad Kelly and Deshaun Watson.

Though only 5-foot-10 and just one year as a college starting quarterback, there is reason to believe that Murray could make a better financial decision to opt for a career in the NFL than in the MLB. Here are a few reasons why.

First, NFL offenses are closer to college offenses than they have ever been. While Air Raid signal callers have almost exclusively busted in the past, former Texas Tech Red Raiders gun slinger Patrick Mahomes is about to win NFL MVP.

Murray’s Oklahoma predecessor Mayfield has won seven games as the Cleveland Browns rookie starting quarterback. NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year isn’t out of the question for him. Mahomes and Mayfield’s success only aid in Murray’s climbing draft stock.

Second, Murray isn’t going to get a bigger stage than he will on Saturday night versus Alabama. Beating the defending national champions as a significant underdog will only add to Murray’s growing legacy.

If he shines against Saban’s defense, well, it could be reminiscent of Watson beating Alabama two years ago while with the Clemson Tigers. Watson has his Houston Texans in the AFC playoffs in his second professional season as their first true franchise quarterback. He was thought to be a second-round pick before stunning the Crimson Tide in Tampa.

Third, there aren’t many great NFL quarterback prospects entering the 2019 NFL Draft anyway. Top quarterback prospect Justin Herbert decided to return to the Oregon Ducks for his senior season. Surely, Haskins will turn pro, but he’s only a redshirt sophomore with limited starting experience.

The quarterback position is overvalued, which will almost certainly force guys like Drew Lock of the Missouri Tigers and Will Grier of the West Virginia Mountaineers into the top-half of the first round. Even quarterbacks with physical flaws (like Murray’s height) could climb into the first round. Bad NFL teams need quarterbacks. Having a prospect like Murray under control for as much as five years would only aid in his development as a professional quarterback.

If he does merit a first-round selection, it might be more financially advantageous for him that playing baseball. On FS1’s Undisputed, FOX college football analyst Joel Klatt essentially spells out that Murray could make almost twice upfront of what the A’s offered him if he were to be a top-32 selection in this spring’s NFL Draft.

That money of course, isn’t fully guaranteed. However, Murray wouldn’t even be able to hit arbitration in the MLB until several years from now. He would under $1 million in his first few years in the big leagues, should he even make it to the show. If Murray were to be the last pick of the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, he’d be making close to $10 million. So in essence, Lamar Jackson money with the Baltimore Ravens.

Lastly, even if football doesn’t work out, Murray would only be in his mid-20s and could conceivably try to make it to the big leagues like he initially planned. Fellow Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow is doing that as a member of the New York Mets organization. He might have gotten called up by the lousy Mets if he didn’t suffer a season-ending ankle injury this past summer.

In short, a strong performance versus Alabama on Saturday night could catapult Murray up draft boards, despite a smaller body of work when compared to his predecessor Mayfield.

While Murray isn’t going No. 1 overall like Mayfield did this past spring, just being a first-round pick would make more financial sense in the short-term than it would be for Murray to play baseball.

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Of course, this all hinges on him playing well in Miami Gardens on Saturday night. In the biggest game of his life, will Murray rise to the occasion and double his theoretical earning potential? We’ll just have to wait and see.