FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Monday, 12/31 – Hard to Fade Harden
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Monday 12/31
Welcome back to the New Year’s Eve edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. A quick thanks to all of you who read the column religiously this season. My New Year’s Resolution will be to stop writing up Domantas Sabonis and Spencer Dinwiddie on every slate, what’s yours going to be?
The New Year’s Eve slate is always a lot of fun. We have 5 games on the main slate tonight and the last game of the night should finish well before the ball drops. Who could forget James Harden‘s performance on New Year’s Eve in 2016 when he posted 53-16-17 against the Knicks and scored almost 90 FanDuel points?
As always in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA. When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.
"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."
I’ll be going position by position today in an attempt to give you my top two plays at each position. Make sure you check out the “value plays” section where I spotlight players under 5k that we can use to help fit in our favorite studs and “core plays” section at the end which gives you my three favorite players to build around. And of course, I always include my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.
Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others. My best advice is to never settle on a lineup too early in the day, and this particular slate has a lot of questions that need to be answered before we have a really clear picture of who we want to roster. Let’s take a closer look at what this slate has to offer!
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Six-Game Slate
Injury Report
***Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague both missed yesterday’s game against the Heat, but are both questionable for tonight’s game against the Pelicans. If one of them plays, I’m interested. If both of them play, I’m not. And if neither of them plays then we have more Tyus Jones chalk.
***Elfrid Payton is probable for the Pelicans. Payton has been out for 22 straight games and will be welcomed back to the starting rotation it appears. No word on a minutes limit yet, but his impact on this team should be significant.
***Devin Booker is questionable for Phoenix tonight as they host the Warriors. If he were to miss tonight’s game I don’t know how Phoenix would be able to keep it close and that would take me off that game almost entirely.
***Eric Gordon is out for the Rockets tonight. Austin Rivers has already been named the starter in his stead.
***Rudy Gay is a GTD for the Spurs matchup with the Celtics tonight.
***Wes Matthews missed yesterday’s game for the Mavs and looks likely to miss tonight, too.
***Chris Paul and Nikola Mirotic remain out for their respective teams.
Vegas Data
There are only Vegas lines for three of the five games tonight at this time. The two games without lines are Minnesota-New Orleans and Dallas-Oklahoma City. Keep an eye on where those totals and spreads end up later today.
The Warriors are 10-point road favorites at Phoenix and that game currently has the highest total.
Houston-Memphis currently has the lowest total (only 200), with the Rockets being 5 point favorites at home.
The Celtics-Spurs game has the tightest spread at this time, with Boston opening up as 1.5 favorites on the road.
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards
Steph Curry (10100)
It’s hard not to love Steph tonight in this matchup. “Chef Curry” has been cooking lately with 50+ FanDuel points in three of his last four games and has the best matchup on the slate as Phoenix ranks 25th in the NBA against opposing point guards.
The only thing that makes me pause is his price and this spread. He feels more like a cash game play now that he’s back up over 10k and if Devin Booker can’t go for Phoenix then we could see GSW demolish the Suns in this game. If Booker is in the lineup tonight, then Curry would be the first Warrior into my lineups and this game would merit some game-stack consideration.
Kyrie Irving (9400)
Kyrie is my probably my favorite play on the slate (besides Harden). This game between Boston and San Antonio should be a good one, and attacking the Spurs with point guards is usually the way to go. Irving has been really good lately, over 51 FanDuel points in his last three games. His 29% usage rate is as good as Curry’s and this game projects to stay close throughout while Curry and the Warriors could blow out the Suns.
This total is also pretty high (218) for a game that features two slower-paced teams so Vegas expects there to be some scoring. I’m locking in”Uncle Drew” tonight and making him a core play.
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards
James Harden (12600)
Harden could realistically cost 14k and we’d have to consider him on a nightly basis with how he’s been playing since Chris Paul got hurt. I mentioned in the opening that Harden had that massive 89 point game on New Year’s Eve two years ago, but did you know he had 69.9 FD points last year against the Lakers on 12/31, too?
I don’t know how many reasons you need to play Harden tonight, but he’s simply unfadable at this point as he’s now up to 40-6-8 over his last 9 games. The matchup with Memphis might keep some people off him, but it shouldn’t. He had a 30-point triple double in their first meeting and Chris Paul played in that game. Without Paul in the lineup, Harden is about an elite of a fantasy player as there has ever been. Don’t overthink this – just play James!
Dennis Schroder (5800)
Schroder is playing 30+ minutes off the bench for the Thunder, even when they’re healthy and has been really productive in his last three outings scoring 30, 36, and 33 FanDuel points. His usage rate of 25% is second to only J.J. Barea among all bench players tonight. I’m not targeting Westbrook or Paul George tonight, but getting some exposure to the Thunder with cheaper plays like Schroder or Jerami Grant (also 5800) makes a lot of sense.
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards
T.J. Warren (7000)
As you can see, my plan is to spend down at small forward tonight. Warren is a solid mid-tier play here at 7k in a game that should be high scoring. It’s also a slight bump in pace for the Suns, who haven’t been playing nearly as fast this year.
Warren does one thing really well – score the basketball. He’ll be asked to do that tonight and needs to put up 25 real-life points if the Suns have any chance of hanging with the Warriors for four quarters.
Robert Covington (6500)
Covington is not a high usage player (only about 15%), but he’s in an elite spot for small forwards tonight as his Wolves take on a Pelicans team that ranks near the bottom of the league against 3-men. What makes Bob-Cov so appealing is the fact that he’s playing a ton of minutes and is an elite defender (over 3.4 steals/blocks per game). His rebounding and defensive stats give him a solid floor, and if his 3-point shot is falling then Covington has 50-point upside, which we saw two games ago against Atlanta.
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards
Anthony Davis (12700)
AD is the no-brainer spend up on almost any slate. But tonight he has a solid matchup against the Timberwolves, who have been banged up and are playing the second half of a back-to-back. Davis will square off against fellow Kentucky Alumnus Karl-Anthony Towns tonight and he’s done well against him, averaging over 30 points per game in their 10 career meetings.
I’ll probably have Davis in some builds tonight just in case he decides to break the slate again like he did last week when he put up 85 FanDuel points against Dallas. And if you’re making multiple lineups, I suggest getting some Davis exposure. He’s not in my primary build today, as I just like James Harden more. But if more value opens up, you could make a case for playing him and Harden together.
LaMarcus Aldridge (8000)
LMA is my favorite play at the PF position. He’s affordable and should be able to take advantage of the undersized Celtics frontcourt tonight. I love attacking Boston with big men, and Aldridge thrives in half-court sets. This game will be played at a relatively slow paced and that really favors Aldridge’s game. He’s been playing well recently, posting 46 and 53 FanDuel points in his last two games. I want to stack this game up and Aldridge is my favorite Spur to include in any Boston-San Antonio game stacks.
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers
Julius Randle (8300)
If you can’t fit Anthony Davis into your lineups, then consider using Julius Randle as a pivot in order to get some exposure to the Pelicans. Randle has been outstanding since entering the starting lineup for New Orleans and should continue to play big minutes tonight as Nikola Mirotic is out of the lineup.
One thing to watch for tonight is how many assists Randle gets. He’s been playing a lot of point-forward for the Pelicans, but Elfrid Payton will return to the lineup tonight. I think Randle is still an excellent play, but we should pay attention to how his role may change as the Pelicans get healthier.
DeAndre Ayton (8000)
Ayton has been on another level lately, posting two 60+ FanDuel point games in his last four. He’s really elevated his game and has become a focal point on offense for this young Suns team. The key here is the status of Devin Booker. If Booker misses tonight’s game, I’m going to be off the Suns’ players other than maybe Mikal Bridges. In the 10 games that Booker missed this season, Ayton is averaging only 15-9, while in the 27 games that Booker has been in the lineup with Ayton his average goes up to 17-12. Booker is the Suns’ player that makes this offense go, and Ayton could be a tremendous play against GSW tonight if he has his point guard healthy.
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters.
Kevon Looney (4200)
Looney is as consistent as they come. He only plays around 25 minutes but is very productive in his time on the court. Phoenix has been bad against opposing centers, and we really only need about 24 FanDuel points from Looney here for him to make value.
Austin Rivers (3800)
Rivers is getting the start tonight for Eric Gordon so he should get somewhere upwards of 34 minutes or more of action. He was already playing a ton of minutes off the bench. He will be chalky tonight, but rostering him is certainly a great way to help you fit Harden and a few other studs into your lineups.
Derrick White (4900) and Bryn Forbes (4400)
These two young guards have been great for the Spurs lately. Both of them are getting extended minutes and leaving Patty Mills as the odd man out (only 19 minutes a game in his last three) in the rotation.
Mikal Bridges (4700)
Bridges has been solid for the Suns and it’s great to see them commit to him this early in the season as one of their important pieces for the future. He’s playing big minutes and has been improving as the season goes. The best part is he should be “blowout-proof” and get minutes here even if Phoenix gets down big to the champs.
Danuel House (4200)
House has emerged as a key cog in the Houston rotation. He played over 30 minutes on Saturday and it’s clear that his coach prefers him to Gerald Green. He’s a nice, young “Three and D” player who could shoot and steal his way to value tonight.
Maxi Kleber (4000)
Maxi has been starting at PF for the Mavs in their last 4 games. He didn’t do much last night against the Thunder, but at only 4k we just need him to hit a couple threes and grab 6-7 rebounds for him to make value.
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night
This is my favorite game to target tonight and I hope that it’s somewhat contrarian, even with only 5 games on the slate. The Celtics-Spurs game is sitting at a 218 total with only a 1.5 point spread. Nothing about this game stands out from a fantasy perspective on paper, and both teams are actually getting paced down here.
But this could be the best game of the night – in real life AND for fantasy purposes. Sometimes we get caught up looking at the over/under and projected pace and forget that what we really want to target are games where we are getting four quarters of basketball from our targeted players in which they are playing at a high level. And that’s what this game offers us tonight in my opinion.
You could make this a simple 1-1 stack with Kyrie-Aldridge being the pieces on each side that I want first and foremost. But, there are a few other pieces here that could be interesting to add into your stacks as well.
Derrick White and Bryn Forbes are both playing well, and I mentioned them in the “Value Plays” section. I think you can pair either of them with Kyrie to fill out your point guard slots. For Boston, I like the idea of using Marcus Morris (6000) along with LaMarcus Aldridge as your power forwards. With Al Horford (6100) still on a 25-minute limit and Aaron Baynes and Robert Williams both being out again tonight, Morris is likely to play some center. He’s played 33, 28, and 36 minutes in his last three games and I think he will be forced to play minutes in the mid-’30s again tonight.
FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup
If you’re new to the Breakdown, each day I give you my three favorite plays that I’m going to be building around in addition to the sample lineup. This is my core, meaning most of my lineups will start with these players and they are the plays that I feel have the best chance to help win some tournaments tonight. I may not have 100% exposure to these players, but they are the plays that I feel the most confident in and will be the primary building blocks for most of my lineups.
***Today’s Core***
James Harden (12600)
Kyrie Irving (9400)
Austin Rivers (3800)
***Using this core will leave you with 5700 per player for your remaining 6 roster spots.
Harden and Kyrie are my favorite guys to spend up on and I’m using Rivers as a value play in my core to make sure I can fit another 2-3 mid-range plays or possibly even another stud.
Here’s where I’m with my build as of 7:00 AM this morning. As a reminder, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be a “plug and play”lineup. A lot can change between this morning and 7:00 PM.
PG: Kyrie Irving (9400)
PG: Derrick White (4900)
SG: James Harden (12600)
SG: Austin Rivers (3800)
SF: Robert Covington (6500)
SF: Mikal Bridges (4700)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (8000)
PF: Jerami Grant (5800)
C: Kevon Looney (4200)
dark. Next. Yahoo NBA DFS GPP Breakdown - December 31
Ok, that wraps it up! I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter. And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!