NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday December 31
Welcome to the New Years Eve edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Happy New Years Eve all! We get a nice NBA DFS slate which kicks off at 6PM EST and FantasyDraft has not only hooked us up with some bigger than usual GPP’s but we get another Picks and Pivots FREE ROLL with $50 worth of tickets up for grabs for the top finishers.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – New Years Eve Slate Breakdown:
Well Happy New Year’s Eve everyone – we get a solid six game slate which kicks off an hour early at 6PM EST and with the last game being at 9PM EST, you will know your cash position well before the ball drops and we kick off 2019.
The one thing that jumps off the page to me right at first glance is the sheer numbers of high-end stars we can roster tonight – all with the ability to break the slate wide open.
James Harden ($20.8K) is the most expensive player on the slate and with Chris Paul and Eric Gordon both sidelined, it is tough to ignore the usage and fantasy production for the Rockets key offensive weapon. With both of those players off the court this season, Harden has a 51% usage rate and is putting up over 2 FP/M – those are numbers you do not fade.
The only down side is that this is a massive pace down spot for Harden against Memphis but this is a match-up he just dropped 70 fantasy points in just a few weeks back and that was with Gordon and Paul on the floor so despite the pace down spot, I think Harden is player #1 in all your lineups.
With Gordon out, Austin Rivers ($9.6K) will step into the line-up and despite the high minutes totals each game, has failed to exceed 30 fantasy points in any game as a member of the Rockets. It sounds like James Ennis could return tonight which would hurt the fringe plays like PJ Tucker, Gerald Green and Danuel House but the reality is, there remains clear paths to 25-30 minutes for all these Rockets fringe pieces if you need the salary relief. If Ennis does play – he is the stone minimum on FantasyDraft at $6K and could be thrust right back into major minutes.
Where the Rockets continue to lose bodies, it looks like the Pelicans are getting healthier with Elfrid Payton expected to make his return tonight which should put an end to the fantasy value of Tim Frazier and will cap the upside of Jrue Holiday who is priced up across the industry.
With Nikola Mirotic still out, this remains the Anthony Davis ($20.3K) show as he gets a match-up with Karl-Anthony Towns, a match-up he went for over 60 fantasy points earlier this season. The Pelicans/Wolves game is the fastest projected pace game on the entire slate and is the only game where both teams see pace boosts which makes an Anthony Davis/Karl-Anthony Towns ($17.6K) an interesting mini stack with massive upside.
KAT is coming off monster games back to back where he put up 70 and 86 fantasy points against the Hawks and Heat and with so many other places to pay up tonight, will KAT be the forgotten stud at a price point that sits comfortably under guys like Harden, AD or Russell Westbrook?
This game also gives us one of the night’s best value plays with Tyus Jones (9.8K) looking in line to get another start with Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague doubtful to play after missing Sunday’s game. Jones played 36 minutes and put up 34 fantasy points and becomes one of the best point per dollar plays on the slate that allows you to pay up for 2-3 other stars.
NBA DFS – Stars and Scrubs Build:
We have seen recently where the Stars/Scrubs builds are winning consistently and the cash lines as a result of so much elite value, have been higher than any other time this season. Tonight is looking like another night where we need to prioritize getting 2-3 high-end stars into our builds which means finding the right value plays to make it work.
D.J. Augustin hurt his right ankle late in the fourth quarter, returned to the game and was icing his ankle in the locker room after the game. It's unclear if Augustin or Jonathon Simmons (right ankle) will be able to play tomorrow night in Charlotte.
— Josh Robbins (@JoshuaBRobbins) December 30, 2018
The first game of the night between the Hornets/Magic could end up being the key to unlock the value on this slate with a handful of players that looked to be banged up and with it being the first game of the night, we should have all the news we need. If D.J. Augustin and his backup, Jonathan Simmons, are both forced to miss this game – Jerian Grant ($6K) could end up drawing the start and at minimum price would be an elite point per dollar play.
As an aside – FantasyDraft is the only site including this Magic/Hornets game on the main slate which makes it a spot I want to target. Anytime we have situations like this, most of the industry coverage will exclude this game so those who primarily play on FanDuel and DraftKings will likely not even look to this game when building on FantasyDraft which could lead to this game being under-owned.
The next game on the slate between the Spurs/Celtics looks to be another slow-paced game on a slate full of them but there is potential for value here with Rudy Gay banged up on the Spurs side. I don’t think any one player would see a huge bump but you already have fringe guys like Patty Mills, Davis Bertans, Marco Bellinelli and Jakob Poetl playing 20 minutes a night so they could conceivably all see small bumps that push them closer to 25 minutes if Gay were to miss tonight’s game and they are all priced in the $6K-$7K range on this slate.
I know stacking the Spurs bench might not seem ideal but consider this for a second – Mills, Poetl and Bertans are averaging around 20 MPG and as a trio are averaging 52 fantasy points per game over their last 7 games. At a total price of $18.7K on FantasyDraft they would need 56 fantasy points to hit 3x value – not a far stretch to think they could that slight uptick if someone like Gay is ruled out.
Kyrie Irving ($16.4K) is one of those mid-range pivot plays that I could see getting totally overlooked tonight with everyone looking to spend up for the bigger name stars but Kyrie gets an elite match-up against the Spurs who have struggled to stop opposing PG’s all season. Kyrie comes into this game with 50, 55 and 60 fantasy points in his last three games and could end up being a low-owned play on this slate that ends up as one of the top raw point scorers. If you take some of the plays noted here – getting Kyrie into a stars/scrubs build is actually viable.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this is a sample lineup only and is not meant to be a Plug and Play build.
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G: James Harden
G: Kyrie Irving
G: Jerian Grant
F/C: Anthony Davis
F/C: Karl-Anthony Towns
F/C: Davis Bertans
UTIL: Jakob Poetl
UTIL: Patty Mills
Slate Overview: I told you I was looking at a Stars/Scrubs build and by locking in AD, Harden, KAT AND Kyrie – it leaves me only $6.2K per player for the last four spots on my roster – meaning basically four stone minimum plays on FantasyDraft.
What you are looking at, in this build, is really taking shots on guys who would have clear paths to 20-25 minutes (Grant only if DJA/Simmons are out), but all guys with the ability to get you 3x value and leaves you the salary room to take on four guys that could all go for 60+ fantasy points.
If you want to go a bit safer, you can easily take out Kyrie as an example and you have over $8K per player remaining which puts you squarely in the Rockets value, Tyus Jones range to build the rest of your roster.
Either way, this is shaping up to be a nice Stars/Scrubs slate and with the benefit of an early 6PM EST lock, we can sit back and relax and enjoy our New Years Eve. Be safe wherever you are, have a great night and let’s kick 2019 off with a nice DFS win!
dark. Next. NBA DFS GPP Breakdown - December 31
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