DraftKings NBA Picks January 2: Use Embiid if he plays

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 31: New Years Eve revelers are seen during the Times Square New Year’s Eve 2019 Celebration on December 31, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by John Lamparski/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 2: Use Embiid if he plays

I’m not going to BS you guys. I new year doesn’t mean a new me. I’m exactly the same as I was a few hours ago, and probably a few years ago. I’ll still be here bringing you DraftKings NBA picks, and that’s all you really care about, right?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,700): It’s homecoming for Westy, but this isn’t always a big spot for him. Westbrook has only averaged about 48 DraftKings points per game against the Lakers in L.A. in his career. Still, he has some of the highest upside out there. Westbrook racked up 77 against Dallas on Monday after having 48 against them on Sunday. Inconsistent yes, but Westbrook could drop the highest total on the entire slate.

Kemba Walker ($9,000): With Jeremy Lamb listed as doubtful, we could see Kemba take on an even larger scoring role than he already has. That alone makes him more enticing than Westbrook considering the price differential. Kemba has scored at least 20 actual points in every game since December 15th. He’s rolling right now anyway. This is just extra incentive to use him.

Honorable Mention:

Trae Young ($6,500): I don’t often condone the use of someone like Young. He is an erratic shooter that can get frustrated and put up bad shots and make ill advised passes. However, Washington was not a good defensive team even with Wall in there. With Wall gone of the rest of the year, this is going to continue to be a sore spot for the Wizards. Young has eight straight games with 30 or more DraftKings points. I won’t say he’s safe, but he is performing well right now, and we have seen what his ceiling can be.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,600): Clarkson put up 30.75 DraftKings points on the Heat just five days ago. Not much has changed since then. I do realize that Clarkson is kind of streaky, so nothing is certain here. However, Clarkson has been putting up strong numbers for most of the month of December. Cleveland needs the offense, so Clarkson will continue to get plenty of chances.

Tyus Jones ($5,600): Watch the status of Teague here. Rose is doubtful, but if Teague plays, there is no guarantee that Minnesota will run with both Teague and Jones in the backcourt. Jones has racked up 75 DraftKings points over the last two games with both Rose and Teague out. If both are out again, lock in Jones. If Jones starts alongside Teague, he should be safe to use in that scenario as well.

Dark Horses:

Elfrid Payton ($5,300): Payton was playing at a high level before breaking his finger and missing 22 games. He returned on Monday, but was brought along slowly, playing just 24 minutes. There was some rust, but his passing was true, and with the teammates he has, Payton can still hit value even if his shot isn’t falling. I don’t see a lot of upside here, but Payton could hit 6x value if his minutes get up to 28-30 tonight. Keep an eye out for restrictions.

Tomas Satoransky ($4,600): When Wall missed time last year and earlier this year, Satoransky showed flashes of being a strong player. More often than not though, he whiffed on value and imploded lineups. So far so good in the two games without Wall this time around for Satoransky. He has 59.5 DraftKings points over the two games. That puts Satoransky at almost 7x value at this price. Lock and load!

Malik Monk ($3,900): Welcome to the standard chalk value play of the night. The price on Monk is stupid low since he will start when Lamb is ultimately ruled out. Since the Hornets are still listing Lamb as doubtful, there is a very slight chance that he plays. Make sure you have a backup plan in case the Hornets rush Lamb into the lineup, but they really don’t have a reason to do so.

My pick: Satoransky(PG), Monk(G); Monk(PG), McConnell(G)

WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 28: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on during the closing seconds of the Wizards 101-92 loss to the Chicago Bulls at Capital One Arena on December 28, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($8,600): Beal has racked up 109 DraftKings points in just two games against Atlanta this year. Only one was with Wall out. Beal turned into James Harden when Wall is out. Okay, so Beal isn’t going to drop 80 like Harden does with CP3 out, but 60 is a real possibility. Beal has 97.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. His price actually looks like a bargain here.

Devin Booker ($8,300): Philly is a pretty solid perimeter team, but Booker lit them up for 54.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. That’s what happens when you are about the only scorer on the team. Booker has a little more help now, but there is still good upside here. Booker will likely play about 35 minutes regardless of the score.

Jrue Holiday ($8,300): I can see a total fade of New Orleans here with the exception of Davis. Payton’s return should cut a bit out of the production of Holiday, and if Mirotic can make it back as well, that’s a lot of shots to spread around. The price on Holiday is enticing considering he put up 42.25 DraftKings points on the Nets in the first meeting. However, if this turns into a blowout, Holiday goes from average chance to zero chance of hitting value at this price. Where’s the upside in that?

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($7,000): Russell and Dinwiddie aren’t a lot different as far as their floor goes, but Russell’s upside is far higher and he is now cheaper than Dinwiddie is. This is actually a pretty good spot for both in a paced up game. I don’t know that I would use both in the same lineup. I would roll with Dinwiddie for cash and Russell for GPP formats.

Zach LaVine ($6,600): LaVine put up 36.25 DraftKings points on the Magic, but that was the game before he missed to weeks. LaVine hasn’t been at that mark in the three games since coming back. The good news is that we can kind of get him on the cheap here. However, with the Bulls fully healthy now except for Portis, we wont see the huge games from LaVine that we saw earlier in the season.

Dark Horses:

Josh Hart ($5,300): Hart has performed well with LeBron out, putting up 97.25 DraftKings points in the three games without him. The strong play of Hart means he is a really good value right now. His price will get to the point where Hart needs at the top end of his ability to hit value, but we aren’t there yet. This is another strong spot for Hart.

Tyler Johnson ($5,200): Johnson is the elite scorer for the Miami second unit. Until that changes, he is going to hit value almost every game. Johnson is one of those guys that I prefer mostly in cash games, but against a Cleveland team that doesn’t defend the perimeter well, there is enough upside for GPP usage tonight.

Alec Burks ($4,800): I swear that every time I jump back on the Burks train, it derails. Burks now has back to back games of more than 30 DraftKings points. One of them was 31.5 against tonight’s opponent, the Heat. That makes me feel pretty good about using Burks. Since I am though, you may want to look elsewhere. I think I curse him or something every time I put his name in print.

T.J. McConnell ($3,600): McConnell is way too cheap right now. He has five straight games of at least 6x value, and his minutes are now up in the 28 range. They wont go any higher than that, but how much upside do you want on someone this cheap? McConnell only needs 25.2 DraftKings points for 7x value. He has hit that number twice in those five games.

My pick: Beal(SG); Beal(SG)

CHARLOTTE, NC – NOVEMBER 01: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder watches on against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on November 1, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($9,200): This is a pretty favorable matchup for George. I am a little worried about how things shook out on Monday. PG was cold from the field, and Westbrook took over and dominated Dallas. I suppose there is a threat of this on any night, but this is a night where I may lean George over Russ with Lebron out.

Ben Simmons ($8,900): Considering that Embiid was a game time decision right up until tipoff last night, I would say there is a considerable chance that he sits on the second night of a back to back if there is even a chance that he could injure something. That is especially true considering they play the Suns. Simmons racked up 47.75 DraftKings points against the Suns in the first meeting, so I think you can consider him regardless of Embiid’s status. However, if Embiid sits, Simmons becomes a must play.

Honorable Mention:

Luka Doncic ($7,800): Doncic was a bust on New Year’s Eve against the Thunder. Well, a bust for his price range. I have a feeling that could be a recurring theme until the price on Doncic comes down to a more manageable level. This is a good matchup for Doncic, but can he put up big numbers with Smith getting his normal minutes?

Kyle Kuzma ($7,500): Kuzma has 127 DraftKings points in three games with LeBron out. The price correction isn’t quite where it should be yet. This could be another big game for Kuzma, though I am less thrilled that he will have to put up with Paul George tonight. That leaves my confidence that Kuzma can hit 6x value very low.

T.J. Warren ($6,600): Warren put up a solid 34 DraftKings points on the Sixers in the first meeting. He has been remarkably consistent when healthy, so I have no reservations about using Warren here for cash games. In GPP formats though, his upside hasn’t been at the point where I feel like I’m missing out if I don’t play him. We can get higher upside elsewhere for around the same price.

Dark Horses:

Trevor Ariza ($5,900): Ariza manhandled Atlanta for 48.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Keep an eye on the status of Otto Porter. If Porter is in the lineup without limitations, I don’t think I could play Ariza even at this great price. If Porter is limited, I would still consider Ariza. Ariza becomes a must play option if Porter remains out.

Gordon Hayward ($4,800): Minnesota had no answer for Hayward in the first meeting, punishing the Timberwolves for 58.25 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in that game. Boston has so many weapons that it’s hard to rely on just one. However, Hayward at this price looks like a huge bargain.

Deandre Bembry ($4,200): Bembry was solid with his extra minutes coming his way with Kent Bazemore out. This should be a recurring trend for Atlanta. I think I trust Bembry a little more than Huerter or Lin, at least at this point. That could change as we see how Atlanta starts using their pieces with Bazemore out for a while.

My pick: Ariza(SF); Simmons(SF)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans dunks the ball in the second quarter past T.J. McConnell #12 of the Philadelphia 76ers to score his 10,000 career point at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,800): Admittedly, I would be more pissed at A.D. and the Pelicans if I had hit with my value plays on Monday. Still, his health bears watching tonight. We should get some sort of news before 87 seconds before lock tonight. If Davis is in without limitation, we have to use him. He’ll destroy the Nets. Davis had 59.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. If Davis is out, Jahlil Okafor is a must play. Yes, even over Monk.

John Collins ($8,200): John Collins is going to hit value tonight. In fact, I can give you his exact DraftKings points total. How? Miss Cleo. In all seriousness, Collins has been within two points of 43 DraftKings points in both meetings with Washington this year. Collins played just 25 minutes in one of those. This is a strong spot for him, and I can understand fading Davis and pocketing the cash.

Honorable Mention:

Lauri Markkanen ($7,000): Markkanen ravaged the Magic for 47 DraftKings points back on December 21st. With Portis out, Markkanen has been playing a lot of minutes and putting up very good numbers in most games. This should again be one of Markkanen’s better outings.

Aaron Gordon ($6,800): This should be a smash spot for Gordon, but he has only picked up 63.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls this year. That is a shade under 5x value and one of those games was with Markkanen out. Gordon has massive upside at a very reasonable price but he can also really hurt our lineup with his low floor.

Dark Horses:

Jeff Green ($4,400): Green has been huge at times this season filling in for injuries. However, if Porter returns, it will take minutes away from Green and/or Bryant. I still see Green getting decent minutes with Markieff still out. Just keep in mind that he isn’t going to put up any really big numbers like he did on Saturday.

Kenneth Faried ($3,700): Faried is capable of putting up huge numbers in limited minutes. He pretty much had to do that his whole time in Denver. With RHJ leaving last game and out for the foreseeable future, Faried is going to be a DFS darling as long as his price is this low. This is a huge spot for Faried. I’ll have him locked in as well!

My pick: Davis(PF); Markkanen(PF), Faried(F)

DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Centers

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,600): Embiid destroyed the Suns in the first meeting, putting up 62.25 DraftKings points in that game. Keep an eye on his status. This feels like a spot where he’ll sit if he knee is still bothering him. If Embiid is good to go, he’s my favorite play on the entire slate.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,400): I’m all over Vucevic so long as his calf injury isn’t serious. Vucevic has 108.25 DraftKings points in just 68 minutes against the Bulls this year. Chicago has no one that can handle Vucevic. If he isn’t limited, I’m using both Vuce and Embiid in some lineups. If Vuce is out, play Mo Bamba!

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Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($8,000): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! Even if Randle is playing mostly PF over C, this is still a very strong play regardless of the status of Mirotic.

Marc Gasol ($7,400): Gasol is one of those guys that can give Drummond trouble. Gasol has averaged 45 DraftKIngs points per game in ten career games vs. Drummond. Add in the fact that Gasol has at least 5x value in four straight games, and I think this is an underlooked mid range play.

Steven Adams ($6,900): I usually only use Adams if either Westbrook or George are out, but I might make an exception. The Lakers are weak up front no matter who they use. This is a great spot for Adams here.

Dark Horses:

DeAndre Jordan ($6,500): Jordan will likely be ignored on this slate because of all of the other options and because he didn’t take a shot in 23 minutes on Monday. He could dominate Charlotte on the inside with Zeller out. This could be a sneaky good spot for Jordan.

Thomas Bryant ($4,700): Bryant has 43.25 DraftKings points in just 34 minutes over two games against Atlanta this year. However, with all of the injuries in the frontcourt for Washington, Bryant has played more than 30 minutes in each of the last two games. Howard is still out and Markieff Is out tonight as well. I see strong minutes and great production from Bryant here.

Willy Hernangomez ($3,800): Willy has been playing strong off the bench for a couple of weeks now. Now he’s going to be a very popular value play with Zeller out. If Willy is as good as he has shown at times, Zeller may not get this job back. At any rate, Willy is a great value, but I don’t know if you want to sacrifice your C slot to get him.

My pick: Adams(C), Bryant(F), Hernangomez(UTIL); Embiid(C), Hernangomez(UTIL)

Next. DraftKings value plays January 2nd. dark

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