Fantasy Baseball 2019 Division Breakdown: NL Central
By Bill Pivetz
The National League Central looks to be a four-team race in 2019. How do the new additions, and recent losses, affect fantasy baseball?
In recent years, the National League Central was a one-team race with a couple of the teams trying to play spoiler. The Chicago Cubs have had a lock on the division over the last three seasons. The St. Louis Cardinals were the previous owners of this division. Last offseason saw the Milwaukee Brewers spend like never before and won the division for the first time since 2011. They have a solid foundation to repeat again in 2019. So to sum it all up – there is a ton of fantasy baseball goodness in this division.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are caught in the middle of competing and rebuilding. They traded for Chris Archer but then traded away Ivan Nova. The Cincinnati Reds are going full force in 2019 by adding a couple of sluggers and starting pitchers to help them this season.
Three of the ballparks in the NL Central favor the hitters. Great American Ballpark, Miller Park and Wrigley Field rank in the top half of home runs according to ESPN Park Factors. This will give a majority of the hitters a boost to their fantasy baseball value.
Entering this season, this division could be a four-team race. The Cubs and Brewers still have their core while the Cardinals and Reds adding some significant pieces to change the status quo. I feel bad for the starting pitchers in this division.
In this six-part series, I will go over each team’s key departures, arrivals and their remaining needs heading into Spring Training. I will also talk about some players to watch for in 2019.
Here it is, the NL Central team breakdown.
Fantasy Baseball 2019 Division Breakdown: Pittsburgh Pirates
Key Departures:
Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Ivan Nova
Key Additions:
Lonnie Chisenhall, Jordan Lyles
As I hinted in the introduction, the Pirates front office seems to be confused about what they want to do. They added Archer at the trade deadline, which was weird because they were seven games back on August 1.
Then, on December 11, they traded Nova, their No. 3 starting pitcher, to the Chicago White Sox. The rotation still has Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove and Nick Kingham. I like the first two names as back-end pieces of my rotation.
If Archer can turn it around this season, then he’ll be a bargain at where he was drafted.
As for as the offense goes, the outfield is what will hold this team together. Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are the power hitters of this team. They combined for 56 home runs. Though, Polanco likely won’t be ready for Opening Day.
First baseman Josh Bell and third baseman Colin Moran are two players to target late in drafts. Both corner infield positions are full of talent. If you secure a top player elsewhere or are looking for solid backups, these two could help you.
The Pirates need a shortstop and second baseman. There are cheap veterans available at both positions if the Pirates don’t want to break the bank filling their lineup.
My breakout player is current second baseman Adam Frazier. In 113 games last season, he hit 10 home runs and 35 RBIs with a .277 average. If he plays the full season, expect something like 12-13 home runs with 45 RBIs and a .272 average.
Fantasy Baseball 2019 Division Breakdown: Cincinnati Reds
Key Departures:
Key Additions:
Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Kyle Farmer
The Cincinnati Reds had a bad 2018 season, finishing 28.5 games back of first place. They wanted to change their fortune and did so by making a few moves to improve their roster.
The ball started rolling by trading for Washington Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark. Roark hasn’t had the best career, averaging a 3.59 ERA and 1.209 WHIP in six years. He has just one sub-3.00 ERA season in his last four seasons.
The move to Cincy may hurt his value, too. His new home ballpark is very hitter friendly and the batters he’ll be facing are pretty good compared to the National League East.
The same could be said for Alex Wood. As a part of the big trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wood is expected to be their No. 1 pitcher. Though, for a pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, Wood could be in trouble this season.
The Reds offense, however, could be one of the highest scoring offenses this season. With Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker already in the mix, adding Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp can only help.
Kemp and Puig are slotted to play the corner outfield spots between Scott Schebler. They and their teammates will have success this season.
The Reds can use one more starting pitcher and a set-up man. They’ve been linked to Dallas Keuchel but that hasn’t developed into anything. I think that’d be a good move for both parties.
Catcher Tucker Barnhart is my sleeper pick from the Reds. The catcher position is a question mark after the top three or four names. Barnhart hit 10 home runs, 16th among catchers, and .248, fourth among qualified catchers. He’s someone to draft late after the other owners reached for their catcher.
Fantasy Baseball 2019 Division Breakdown: St. Louis Cardinals
Key Departures:
Matt Adams, Tyson Ross, Bud Norris, Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly
Key Additions:
Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Miller
The Cardinals are in pretty good shape to make it to the playoffs this season. The pieces they lost in free agency won’t hurt them long-term and they added significant upgrades.
The starting rotation is the same, except for Luke Weaver. Miles Mikolas pitched well in his first season back in the States. Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez also looked good in their limited appearances.
The addition of Paul Goldschmidt helps everyone around him. The young outfielders Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neil will improve their numbers. Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez and Paul DeJong will also see a boost in their numbers.
I’d like most of these hitters on my team this season. While some of them didn’t hit for average, a team .249 average, they will crush the ball. That helps with runs, home runs and RBIs, three of the five standard categories.
Andrew Miller will look to bounce back in St. Louis. He posted a 4.24 ERA in just 34.0 innings with Cleveland. Looking at the rest of the Cardinals bullpen, Miller will get a lot of work this season. He may not get back to 100 strikeouts but a sub-2.00 ERA is possible.
The Cardinals need one more reliever, whether it’s a closer or not. Hicks, Miller, Luke Gregerson and Brett Cecil are not enough reliable pieces.
Closer Jordan Hicks is my breakout star. He will take over closing duties after Bud Norris. He posted a 3.59 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 last season. Those numbers don’t look good overall but his second half was a bit worse than his first half. If he can stay consistent all season, he’ll be a top-20 closer.
Fantasy Baseball 2019 Division Breakdown: Chicago Cubs
Key Departures:
Daniel Murphy, Jesse Chavez, Jorge De La Rosa, Jaime Garcia
Key Additions:
Daniel Descalso, Kendall Graveman
The Cubs had a lot of free agents but were able to bring some of them back with club options. The starting rotation is the same. Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. The latter not having the best of seasons.
The bullpen is also a weak point for the Cubs. Pedro Strop is listed as the closer with Carl Edwards, Steve Cishek and Brandon Kintzler behind him. There aren’t many relievers under 30, so the pickings are slim. Someone like Zach Britton could fill the void, but they’d have to shell out a lot of money.
The offense has been a strong point for the Cubs for years. Relying on the bats of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs can score a lot of runs. Javier Baez had his breakout season last year, 34 home runs, 111 RBIs and a .290 average.
Kyle Schwarber can still hit for power but the average is not there. He struck out 140 times with a .238 average. If you are looking for average late in the draft, Ben Zobrist will likely be available. He’s the starting second baseman and will likely lead off.
The Cubs could use one more outfielder. Schwarber has his struggles and Jason Heyward isn’t the same hitter he was in Atlanta. He has just 26 home runs in three seasons. He hit 27 in 2012.
I think Hamels’ value is a bit low. He had a bad start to the season with Texas but improved once he got to Chicago. A full season with the Cubs should put him back into the top-25 starting pitchers. As a 16th-round pick, you could do a lot worse than Hamels.
Fantasy Baseball 2019 Division Breakdown: Milwaukee Brewers
Key Departures:
Jonathan Schoop, Mike Moustakas, Curtis Granderson, Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley, Jordan Lyles, Joakim Soria
Key Additions:
Cory Spangenberg, Alex Claudio, Ben Gamel
The Brewers made their big moves last season, bringing in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They added Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop, Curtis Granderson and Gio Gonzalez at the deadline as supporting pieces.
They are all free agents now, however, that’s not a bad thing for the Brewers. The offense is still intact. Cain, Yelich and Ryan Braun in the outfield. Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar, Orlando Arcia and Cory Spangenberg in the infield with Manny Pina behind the plate.
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The bullpen is full of the same guys that dominated late in the season. Corey Knebel, Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader are the main pieces. The three combined for 43 saves last season. They traded for Alex Claudio in December. He had a down year but finished with a sub-3.00 ERA in his previous three seasons.
The only negative to this Brewers team his their starting rotation. Jhoulys Chacin is listed as their top pitcher with Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Brandon Woodruff and Jimmy Nelson rounding out the rotation. If the Brewers were to make another move, it should be for a starting pitcher.
I would not want to draft any of the Brewers pitchers. I’d look at Chacin as my SP6 in a standard league but that’s it.
The Brewers don’t have many holes to fill. Just a top starter and the team could win the division.
My breakout player is Spangenberg for two reasons. One, I think joining this stacked Brewers offense will help him and two, there’s no one else to pick. They all performed well and will likely do it again in 2019.
The National League Central saw a lot of big names join an already stacked division. Goldschmidt, Miller, Puig, Kemp, Yelich, Votto, Bryant, Rizzo. This is the division to use if you’re looking for power numbers. You may want to avoid the starting pitchers, though.
The next division will be the National League East.
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