De’Andre Hunter is not flashy but he’s a valuable NBA Draft prospect

De’Andre Hunter’s skill set doesn’t scream for you to draft him, but he’s good at the things a modern NBA team needs from a role-playing forward.

With a presumed-to-be weak freshman class coming in for the 2018-19 college basketball season, De’Andre Hunter looked like one of the upperclassmen who would take advantage of that lack of quality and stake a claim to a potential top-five pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. As a freshman, Hunter had shown a great foundation as a two-way wing player, providing quality defense, hitting 38.2 percent from 3, and showing the beginnings of a fluid off-the-dribble game. He was receiving lottery hype before an injury sidelined him for Virginia’s shocking upset loss in the NCAA Tournament to Maryland-Baltimore County, and he decided to return for his sophomore season. The thought was that he was going to take over more of a scoring load at Virginia, and further flesh out some of the on-ball flashes he had in 2017-18.

So far, though, Hunter has been pretty similar to the player that we saw last season. Sure, there have been marginal improvements — from 18.4 to 20.5 points per 40 minutes, from 2.2 to 3.3 assists per 40, and a five percentage point increase in 3-point shooting, up to 42.3 percent on 26 attempts so far — but Hunter’s game remains very similar to what we saw last season. While Jarrett Culver of Texas Tech has seized the mantle of this draft class’s top non-freshman with a meteoric rise, Hunter is hanging in the middle of the first round on most big boards — where he also was last season.

Hunter’s biggest disappointment this season has been his regression as a ball-handler, putting what feels like a cap on his offensive value. As a freshman, Hunter showed some good talent attacking off the dribble in a straight line, bursting past defenders on closeouts and using his length to extend into quality finishes at the rim.

The thought was that Hunter might be able to elevate this skill into some on-ball responsibility, creating offense out of the pick-and-roll or jumping into some isolation possessions. However, that hasn’t happened this year, outside of some simple pick-and-roll actions that are usually a vehicle for getting Ty Jerome or Kyle Guy looks off screens. When he does attack the rim, he looks more mechanical than he did last year, lacking that same fluid movement and ability to absorb contact without much trouble.

He struggles to go strong to the rim against contact at times as well, against defenders he really shouldn’t have a problem with.

There also hasn’t been the defensive development that was hoped for. Hunter is still a very good defender, and one of the linchpins of the always excellent Virginia defense thanks to his ability to defend across all three frontcourt positions at the college level. But with a closer eye on him this year, we’ve seen some tendencies and traits that might limit him in the NBA. For one, Hunter struggles going around screens, with awkward footwork and difficulty getting his hips around the screener and disengaging.

There was also the idea of him playing as a weakside rim protector in the NBA, thanks to his wingspan, quick leaping ability, and the discipline contesting shots he showed last year. He’s shown some talent there again this year, drifting over from the weakside to provide a good challenge.

This has been too inconsistent though, because Hunter often falls into the trap of failing to make rotations across the paint to contest, fearing the easy dump-off pass to their man on the opposite side of the paint.

These areas have been disappointing for projecting Hunter’s ceiling, as they probably offer caps on what he could ultimately become at the next level. Hunter’s handle has a long way to go before he could be considered an on-ball option, and his confidence handling the ball has even further to go. That likely relegates him to being a complimentary player on offense, which is going to make his shooting more paramount as a skill — and while he’s efficient and has good mechanics on his release, he has just 81 attempts from 3 over the past two years, and that’s not a high enough sample size to engender supreme confidence in him having a quick enough trigger for the NBA.

With that said, Hunter does still have a pretty strong foundational skill set for projecting to the NBA level, particularly on defense. While his technique issues coming around screens are concerning, his overall fundamentals on defense are exceptional. He sits down in a stance with a wide base, and uses his wingspan well to completely shut down the paint against drivers, even though he doesn’t have exceptional lateral quickness. You can see how much space he eats up on this double of Bruno Fernando of Maryland, completely walling off Fernando’s passing options.

Hunter’s positioning is exciting, as he has continued to make good reads reacting to where his teammates are helping and recovering. He’s great at sliding over to cut off the lane and recovering to his man, and this is an area where his ceiling actually should be pretty high with good coaching.

It’s also promising that Hunter is comfortable with so many types of pick-and-roll coverages. Tony Bennett likes to vary the ways that Virginia defends high screens, and Hunter does a good job hedging out and recovering or taking over on switches, which lends to the idea of him being a quality switch defender at the next level. With more effective play against big men, it’s easy to see positional versatility being one of Hunter’s biggest value areas at that level.

What Hunter’s game really needs on the defensive end is more upper body strength — while his frame is solid, he has room to add more muscle at the shoulders, and that would open the door to more effective play at the four on defense. Hunter can get thrown around under the basket when trying to rebound, and having more power behind his arms can help prevent that. This could also assist with his finishing against contact, as Hunter does a good job of carving out space under the basket, but can struggle at times with hands in his face. Hunter’s touch is already improved from last season, and further upper body development could make a huge difference in Hunter’s ability as a slasher and roll man.

Hunter isn’t a top-end versatile defender in the way that Zion Williamson and Jarrett Culver are, and while his offensive skill set is more complimentary, it doesn’t have the potential for upside that similar compliment prospects like Keldon Johnson have. However, Hunter has the skill set to play a role that every team needs — a complimentary wing on offense that can set screens, shoot spot-ups, and attack the basket, and then shift up a position and defend playmaking fours and switch on-ball actions defensively. That role opens up so many lineup possibilities for teams that want to go small, or need to get ideal spacing playing around an initiator-type five. Think of how valuable Shane Battier and Rashard Lewis were to the LeBron-era Heat, or how valuable Juancho Hernangomez has been to the Denver Nuggets’ hot start to the season. This role isn’t going to stop being valuable, especially as more high-value fives from the last few draft classes, like Lauri Markkanen and Deandre Ayton, continue to emerge.

It would take an almost unprecedented development for Hunter to make the leap to the initiator-type that he looked like he might become after a solid freshman season. But the path to becoming a valuable fourth or fifth starter on the right team isn’t difficult at all. It involves real investment in Hunter’s strength and shot confidence improving, but those are easy avenues to improvement, and Hunter’s positioning and technique on defense are far advanced, even for an upperclassmen prospect. That’s why, despite his relative lack of upside, Hunter should be valued highly by NBA teams. He may not be flashy or fill you with hope that you’ve found a star, but his fit in the NBA is one that naturally helps teams win.