DraftKings NBA Picks January 3: Build around Harden again!

We are down to just three games on our DraftKings NBA slate tonight. There is one interesting matchup, one superhuman player, and one horrid frontcourt to attack, so it’s going to be an interesting three games!

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Stephen Curry ($9,500): Curry is worth considering with Paul and Eric Gordon still out of the Houston rotation. The wing defense is going to suffer for Houston much as it did when the Rockets allowed over 100 points to the Grizz on Monday. Curry could take this game over and try to match Harden shot for shot.

Honorable Mention:

De’Aaron Fox ($7,500): Fox was a dud against Portland on Tuesday, but could get back on track here against Denver. Honestly, the price on Fox still looks a bit high here, but DraftKings hasn’t forgotten about his run of 40’s. He could start another one here, but Fox is still a bit of a risk.

Jamal Murray ($7,300): Murray put up an impressive 29.75 DraftKings points in just 18 minutes in the first meeting with the Kings. However, Murray’s shots predictably took a dip with Harris back on the court. That makes me nervous about paying this much. Murray is still a big time scorer, but his production could be cut in half with Harris around. I kind of want to see how this plays out, even on a three game light night.

Dark Horses:

Derrick White ($4,700): White’s streak of 30+ DraftKings point games is now at three, and he has a great chance of upping that to four against the beaten up Raptors. Kyle Lowry is doubtful, and Fred VanVleet hasn’t been close to value in the last few games. White is easily the value play of choice here. Toronto’s defense is still solid, but White still only needs 28.2 DraftKings points for 6x value. He should be able to do at least that.

Monte Morris ($4,500): Beasley stole a lot of minutes from Morris since he had the hot hand on Tuesday. There is a lot of uncertainty in Denver backcourt minutes right now, and the prudent thing to do would be to avoid it. However, that’s hard to do on a three game slate when you need to come up with value plays somewhere. There is a lot of potential value in the Denver backcourt.

My pick: White(PG); N/A

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

James Harden ($11,000): Don’t get cute. Play Harden and let the rest fall into place. The price even looks low here considering that Harden’s worst showing in the past ten games is 58.25 DraftKings points. That one was with Paul still in the lineup! Harden hasn’t been under 60 with Paul out at any time this season. I don’t care about the matchup. Harden is going to be a beast again because he is the offense.

Honorable Mention:

DeMar DeRozan ($7,800): This is a revenge game for DeRozan, and since his good friend Kyle Lowry likely isn’t playing, DeRozan can stick it to them with no concern for his friend’s safety. Not that DeRozan would do that. DeRozan has had some big games and some very disappointing games, all within the last couple of weeks and even one of each against the same Denver team. He’s hard to trust right now.

Klay Thompson ($6,100): I expect ownership on Klay to be pretty low here considering that obnoxious red number next to his name. However, with all of the injuries to the Rocket wings, this looks like a good place to attack with one of the better catch and shoot guards around. Thompson is never a lock for anything unless he’s playing the Kings, but this does look like a good spot for him.

Dark Horses:

Malik Beasley ($4,900): Beasley put up the huge numbers that Jamal Murray usually does against the Knicks, racking up 42.5 DraftKings points. That was the best game of the season for Beasley in a game where Gary Harris still played 20 minutes. This could be the beginning of a good run for Beasley, but who is going to lose the minutes? No one has done anything to deserve a demotion, so it’s going to be hard for Beasley to get this kind of run every game. However, I still think Harris’s minutes will be limited, and he was rusty on offense is his 20 minutes anyway. Harris isn’t safe to use yet.

Austin Rivers ($4,600): It’s really hard to ignore Rivers considering he has played 142 minutes over the last four games, but he has just 82.5 DraftKings points combined to show for it. The chances of Rivers hitting value against the Warriors is pretty low, but he will spend an awful lot of time on the court.

My pick: Harden(SG), Beasley or Rivers(G); Harden(SG), Beasley/Harris/Morris(G)

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kawhi Leonard ($8,800): Kawhi is making his return to San Antonio, and though he has allegedly reconciled (somewhat) with Pop, he’s still going to want to stick it to the organization. Stats be damned, Kawhi is going to eat the Spurs tonight. He may even end up rivaling Harden’s score. And there is no way I trust KD against Houston. He struggled against them even with Curry out in the first meeting.

Honorable Mention:

Nemanja Bjelica ($5,300): It’s a night where the middle tier is awful at SF tonight. Bjelica is the best option simply because Bagley is still out. Denver isn’t a great matchup, but Bjelica will play starter’s minutes. My advice is to pay up for Kawhi or enjoy the huge values at the position tonight.

Dark Horses:

Gerald Green ($4,100): Green became a much larger part of the offense with Eric Gordon out, shooting all 11 shots from beyond the arc and nailing six of them. Green wont be this hot every night, but this did show that he is going to be called upon to be more of a shooter so long as Gordon is out. That makes Green a very intriguing value play.

Davis Bertans ($3,800): Gay is officially questionable, but Pop has already hinted that Gay wont play. Why would he? Pop is the guy that started the healthy scratch night off as a routine part of the NBA. It has changed the league, and given us a longer regular season, so it’s not all bad. Bertans put up a strong 27.25 DraftKings points on a good Boston team with Gay out. I’m not afraid of the Raptors here. This is another big spot for Bertans.

My pick: Leonard(SF), Green(F), Bertans(UTIL); Leonard (SF), Bertans(UTIL), Green(G)

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,400): Okay, who woke up the sleeping giant? LMA was having a pedestrian season until recently. He has back to back 50+ DraftKings points games, and his size is going to pose a bit of a problem for the Raptors. Ibaka has actually handled Aldridge fairly well, but not well enough for his price to be this low.

Honorable Mention:

Pascal Siakam ($6,200): Siakam has racked up 86 DraftKings points over the last two games, and one of those was against a strong Utah front. I’m okay using him against the Spurs since his price has only gone up $200 total. Siakam isn’t a sure thing, but he sure looks like a hell of a value at this price.

Draymond Green ($5,900): Hey kids! Who would you rather play: Draymond, who like the rest of his team was a disaster against the Rockets in the first meeting, or DeMarcus Cousins, who hasn’t played in a year. DraftKings makes that decision very difficult since Boogie is $100 more than Green. I’ll make it easy. Play Green. I don’t think the Warriors could play as poorly as they did in the first meeting if they tried. Draymond could be a nice value at this price.

Dark Horses:

Paul Millsap ($5,200): The Kings are so bad up front that they may even given the Nets a run for their money in frontcourt ineptitude. Millsap was strong in just 22 minutes against the Knicks, racking up 34.25 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t expect Denver to run him much more than those 22 minutes, so that does cap his upside. However, the Kings are so bad up front that Millsap will hit value regardless.

Danuel House ($4,300): Everyone is bailing on House with the impending return of James Ennis, but that could be a little premature. House can play the four and is a much bigger offensive threat than P.J. Tucker. Tucker is the much better defender, but I still think House sees good minutes when they need offense. Houston is going to go small against the Warriors anyway. I like House a lot more with Ennis out, but there is still enough upside to play him should Ennis return.

My pick: Millsap(PF), Aldridge(C); Siakam(PF), House/Tucker depending on Ennis status(F)

DraftKings NBA Centers

Best Bet:

Nikola Jokic ($9,800): Jokic could wind up being the best play on the entire slate behind Harden. Maybe even over Harden if the Kings can somehow keep this close. Jokic put up 40.5 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes in the first meeting. The blowout capped what would have been a monster from Jokic. That is my only concern with tonight. Jokic is going to destroy them when he is on the court.

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Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($6,900): Capela had a solid line in the first game against the Warriors, and played 29 minutes, the most of any starter on either team. Not many teams have been able to quiet Capela this year. I don’t think the Warriors really can either. If this is a close game, Capela is going to hit value with ease, and could eclipse 6x value.

Dark Horses:

Serge Ibaka ($5,600): Ibaka isn’t going to break the slate or anything, but he has averaged exactly 5x value at this price in 26 games vs. Aldridge in his career. That’s good enough to use Serge as a punt at center if you need to.

Mason Plumlee ($5,100): Just like Millsap, Plumlee’s upside is capped because he only plays about half the game. However, Plumlee has remained a consistent value source up front. He should have no issue hitting value against the Kings, and could put up one of his better games here.

My pick: N/A; Capela(C)

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