FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Thursday, 1/3 – The Prodigal Son Returns

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Thursday 1/3

Welcome back to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I am here to help you make sense of tonight’s FanDuel NBA DFS slate.  It’s my first breakdown of the new year and I hope 2019 brings more good things and plenty of DFS winnings.

Getting back to basketball, in this article, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

Tonight we have a small 3-game slate.  These small slates can be tricky, but profitable if we handle them just right. FanDuel pricing, as usual, has presented us with a challenge in roster construction, but that should make it all the more fun!  I’ll be going game-by-game instead of position by position today since it’s such a small slate.

"For tournaments, we’re not satisfied with just 5x return on a player’s salary, we’re looking for players who can hit 6-7x value or greater."

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. My best advice is to never settle on a lineup too early in the day (and a friendly reminder that the sample lineup is often constructed before all the injury news is out) and be flexible enough in your roster construction to change your lineups close to lineup lock if necessary. Having said that, let’s dive right into the games!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: 3 Game Slate

Injury Report

Rockets – Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are OUT, but James Ennis is likely to return.

Nuggets – Will Barton remains OUT.

Raptors – Kyle Lowry is doubtful, Jonas Valanciunas remains OUT.

Kings – Marvin Bagley III remains OUT.

Warriors – Damian Jones remains OUT.

Spurs – Rudy Gay is doubtful.

Vegas Info

***Denver and Sacramento have the highest Vegas total at 228. This game also only features a 3-point spread with the Nuggets being road favorites.

***The closest spread on the night is the Raptors-Spurs game, with San Antonio being 1.5 point home favorites.

***The widest spread of the slate is the Houston-Golden State game, which has a high total at 225.5 but also has the Warriors are 8.5 point favorites at home.

Let’s go take a look at the first game on the slate, which is loaded with narratives. You all know how much I love narratives (rolls eyes…)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Raptors @ Spurs

This game looks like it could be one of the most competitive ones on the night. It features two pretty good teams who exchanged star players this summer when Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green were traded for DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl. There are plenty of revenge narratives here in this game, but I’m more interested in it because it has a decent total, tight spread, and some potential value.

Looking at the Spurs side first, I am really interested in their young guards Bryn Forbes (4400) and Derrick White (6100). Both have been playing well, and White has been playing so well that he got a major price hike up into the 6k range.  With Kyle Lowry out, I like using point guards against the Raptors. Green and Leonard can only guard two of the Spurs three guards, so whoever ends up with Fred Van Vleet is going to end up with a mismatch.

DeMar DeRozan (8800) should be popular tonight based on the lack of other stars and the revenge narrative, but I’m not sure this is a spot I want to use him in.  The other Spurs’ star LaMarcus Aldridge got a price hike to 9k but might be in a better position here tonight as Toronto has struggled against big men since losing center Jonas Valanciunas. They have to play small with Ibaka at center and LMA has been hot, averaging 55 FanDuel points over his last two games.

With Rudy Gay unlikely to play, we can also look at Davis Bertans (4000), who played 30 minutes in their last game that Gay missed and put up 25 FanDuel points.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Raptors @ Spurs

I like Kawhi Leonard (10300) a lot tonight, but not just for the revenge factor.  He’s being forced to carry this Raptors team with his sidekick Kyle Lowry out again tonight and he’s shown the ability to post big numbers in these spots. He scored 45 actual points against Utah earlier this week and this Spurs defense doesn’t scare me a bit.

The next logical piece would be Fred Van Vleet (5700), but he hasn’t flashed much upside for this price even while filling in for Lowry. I’m more inclined to play big men Pascal Siakam (7000) or Serge Ibaka (6600) who both can score, rebound, and block shots. Siakam is my preferred option, and we’re seeing him round into a really good all-around NBA player. He’s gone for 37 and 40 FanDuel points in his last two games and I think he could push for 40 again tonight in this spot.

If we are bargain hunting, then we have to consider Greg Monroe (3900) as a punt at the center position. He’s not playing huge minutes (only 18/game in his last two games) but he’s very efficient at racking up stats while on the floor.  The other potential value from Toronto is Norman Powell (3900) who’s played 22 minutes off the bench in the Raptors’ last two games and racked up 25 FanDuel points in his last game.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Nuggets @ Kings

This game is really interesting because while it has the biggest total on the board, it’s also hard to find many plays that I really like other than one – Nikola Jokic (10300).

The Joker just posted a massive triple-double (19-14-15) against the Knicks and gets one of the best matchups on the board here against the Kings, who just allowed Jokic’s old buddy and teammate Jusuf Nurkic go for 88 FanDuel points on Tuesday night. He’s an elite play for GPP’s and especially on a site like FanDuel where he should outscore every other center by a wide margin.

The Nuggets are hard to play in other positions, however, because they are finally getting healthy. Gary Harris (4800) and Paul Millsap (6200) have returned to the lineup which has muddied up their rotation even more. Both guys are fairly priced here, but we can’t be sure that they’ll get full starters minutes. The hottest Nugget right now has to be Malik Beasley (4900), who has been rolling along for two weeks now relatively unnoticed and is fresh off a 40-FanDuel point outing against the Knicks. He’s certainly still cheap enough to merit consideration tonight. Mason Plumlee‘s price is down to 5000, but his minutes are trending down with Milsap’s return. There’s better value out there.

I’m going to be avoiding the Kings for the most part. Denver is a solid defensive team, and while we used to target point guards like De’Aaron Fox (8700) against Jamal Murray, the team’s rating against the position is now top-10 in the league. Fox feels overpriced for this slate and I’d much rather target the Nuggets side of this game and I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver handled the Kings tonight in blowout fashion despite the 3-point spread.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Rockets @ Warriors

This game is the “late-night hammer” that should draw a solid chunk of the ownership on tonight’s slate.  James Harden (13000) leads his undermanned Rockets team into the Bay Area to try to beat a Warriors team that is fully healthy and playing well.

Harden has seen his price jump to a season-high 13k, but you could argue he’s still the top play on the slate despite the fact he needs 65 FanDuel points to hit 5x value.  I’m locking him into my lineups as he’s been playing at an elite level with CP3 out, but the game theory move here would be to fade him or at least go underweight on the field and spend your salary elsewhere.

Austin Rivers (3800) will start again for Eric Gordon and projects to be massively owned tonight. With FanDuel’s drop score it’s hard to argue against using him, but remember if you use Harden-Rivers as your shooting guard duo you’re not able to roster any other shooting guards either of the of the other two games.  The return of James Ennis (4000) takes me off any of other Houston wings like Danuel House or Gerald Green.  Clint Capela (8600) is usually a great stacking option with James Harden but his price makes him difficult to fit in other studs and he could be outscored by a wide margin by Jokic.

Steph Curry (10400) is my favorite Warrior to use tonight. Without Chris Paul in the lineup, the Rockets don’t have anyone who will be able to check him and he’s hot right now, posting 50+ FanDuel points in three straight. Kevin Durant is cheaper at 10100, but will likely have to deal with P.J. Tucker on defense and he’s taken a back seat on offense to Steph and Klay Thompson (7400) lately.

Draymond Green (6900) is always a tempting GPP play, but he has to start making shots to pay off his price tag and has failed to crack even 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four games.  I’d rather use Kevon Looney (4300) for value if I am going to roster a Warriors’ big man.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Core Plays and Sample Lineup

My strategy tonight will be to target the Spurs-Raptors game for a lot of my plays. That game doesn’t jump off the paper with its total or projected pace, but I think it has the potential to give us a ton of fantasy points from players we can afford to roster.

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I’m off the Kings-Nuggets game with the exception of Beasley and Jokic. James Harden is a priority for me against the Warriors and I’m not considering a fade despite the elevated ownership.

Core Plays

James Harden (13000)

Nikola Jokic (10300)

Derrick White (6100)

As you can see I’m approaching this slate with a stars-and-scrubs type build, but I’m also likely to make a few more balanced lineups as well. Jokic and Harden are in my core, but I want some Kawhi exposure, too. It’s tough to fit all three, but you can do it.

If you can only fit two of the core plays in your lineup due to lack of cap room, that’s fine. Or if you just want to use one of them as a one-off play with another different game stack I think that’s viable, too.

Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.  Here’s what I am looking for tonight.

PG: Bryn Forbes (4400)
PG: Derrick White (6100)
SG: James Harden (13000)
SG: Malik Beasley (4900)
SF: Norman Powell (3900)
SF: Davis Bertans (4000)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (9000)
PF: PJ Tucker (4400)
C: Nikola Jokic (10300)

Thanks for reading, and good luck in your contests! Make sure you check out all the other great content @fantasyCPR! Good luck in your contests!