Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Salary Value Plays 1/3/19
By Shaun Evans
Welcome back once again guys! Thank you for checking out my Top Salary Value Plays for NBA Draftkings. Last night we had some good sweating going on with the Joel Embiid news before he went off on the Phoenix Suns. But sadly tonight, the NBA is giving us a small 3 game slate. But don’t worry, we’ll dig into this research and make sure we can bring in the green during this new year. Good luck and cash out!
NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden , Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.
For example, the other night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.
Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 3 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!
NBA Draftkings Top Tier
Steph Curry vs. Houston Rockets
Salary: $9,500 – Needs to score 47.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Tonight’s 3 game NBA Draftkings slate doesn’t feature the most impressive and exciting players at the point guard position besides James Harden and Stephen Curry. I’m saving James Harden for the shooting guard position so lets focus on Steph Curry. Curry has exceeded value in 4 of his past 5 games, scoring 57.5, 27.5, 53.3, 49.3, and 54.3 fantasy points. Now facing the Houston Rockets will be a challenge as they do defend pretty well. But Steph Curry has averaged 22 points, 7 assist and 4 rebounds in 27 games against the Rockets.
On the season, averaging 34 minutes, Steph Curry is averaging 28 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assist with a usage rate of 30%. Now we have seen some weird tendencies on small slates where some more notable players get benched due to a “random illness”. Just always keep an eye on the injury news leading up to the lock.
Other Valuable Option
Derrick White vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary: $4,700 – Needs to score 23.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Derrick White is probably a FantasyCPR favorite as he has made his way into multiple articles and for some reason, he is still priced very low even with his consistency of exceeding value. Tonight, the San Antonio Spurs and Derrick White get to face the Toronto Raptors. On the season, White is averaging 22 minutes with 7 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assist. Now that stat line isn’t that great but he is averaging 18 fantasy points per game. In his previous five games, he has scored 25.8, 20.3, 34, 31.3, and 36.8 fantasy points, exceeding value in four of those five games.
The Raptors do defend the point guard position pretty well, only allowing them to average 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assist. That doesn’t seem bad but when comparing it to others, Toronto only lacks in stopping point guards from racking up assist. Derrick White comes in as a huge salary relief and could easily help you roster two major stars on this small slate.
NBA Draftkings Top Tier
James Harden vs. Golden State Warriors
Salary: $11,000 – Needs to score 55 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Play the hot hand! Really! James Harden is an absolute monster currently and shows no signs of slowing down. The last game that James Harden didn’t return value in was December 11th against the Portland Trailblazers, almost a month ago. In 31 games against the Golden State Warriors, Harden is averaging just 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assist. The two teams also faced off on November 15th, James Harden recorded 27 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assist. But on the season, Harden is almost averaging a double double with 33 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assist, with a usage rate of 38%.
James Harden is on the verge of breaking Russell Westbrooks usage rate of 41% which he held the year after Kevin Durant left for the Warriors. The Warriors are allowing shooting guards to average 24 points, 5 assist and 4 rebounds per game this season, showing that tonight will be a difficult task for James Harden to continue his streak of dominance and returning value.
Other Valuable Option
DeMar DeRozan vs. Toronto Raptors (REVENGE NARRATIVE!)
Salary: $7,800 – Needs to score 39 fantasy points or more to exceed value
It’s the revenge narrative for us tonight! DeMar DeRozan faces off against his former team, the Toronto Raptors tonight. The off-season brought heart-break for Raptor fans and Kyle Lowry as DeRozan was traded for Kawhi Leonard. But now we finally get that match-up. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 22 points, 6 assist and 6 rebounds this season with a usage rate of 29%. He is their main focal point of this offense. In his past five games, DeRozan has returned value in four of those, scoring 54.3, 51.8, 29.3, 60.3, and 39.8 fantasy points.
On the defense end of things, the Toronto Raptors are allowing shooting guards to average just 22 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assist. The one thing to watch for, since it’s a small slate, Kawhi Leonard may sit out and if he is, this makes DeMar DeRozan an even better play tonight.
NBA Draftkings Top Tier
Kawhi Leonard vs. San Antonio Spurs (REVENGE NARRATIVE…AGAIN!)
Salary: $8,800 – Needs to score 44 fantasy points or more to exceed value
If we cover one side of the revenge narrative then we have to cover the other. Kawhi Leonard is in the same situation but he has a little bit more of a controversial history with his former team. The Spurs would say that Kawhi and his team just avoided the team and front office all season long, especially with his injury. This has more of a revenge narrative to it then DeMar DeRozan’s revenge narrative.
On the season, Leonard is averaging 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist while playing around 34 minutes per game. He has returned value in 3 of his previous 5 games, scoring 48.5, 47, 32.5, 37.8, and 53 fantasy points. The San Antonio Spurs are allowing small forwards to average 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. With this being a revenge narrative for both, DeMar DeRozan and Kawhi Leonard, we could get to witness a pretty good game as long as both teams don’t get to crazy with the rest tags on this small 3 game NBA Draftkings slate.
Other Valuable Option
Buddy Hield vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $6,300 – Needs to score 31.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
This small forward lineup for this small slate isn’t too appealing, it’s hard to find the depth for it. But Buddy Hield has been the highlight of the Sacramento Kings this season alongside De’Aaron Fox. He is currently averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist per game while playing around 31 minutes. He has only returned value in two of his last five games, scoring 39, 20.5, 19.3, 28.3, and 42.8 fantasy points, on the upward trend for now we hope. He has faced the Denver Nuggets only 8 times in his career, averaging 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist.
The Denver Nuggets allow small forwards to average 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist. The two teams have yet to meet up this season so this is the first time we get to see what the new look, fast paced Sacramento Kings can do against the Denver Nuggets. If the pace is kept up and the Kings can get out ahead, Buddy Hield could be in for a good night.
NBA Draftkings Top Tier
LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary: $7,400 – Needs to score 37 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now there is only one other power forward to roster tonight that cost more than LaMarcus Aldridge, besides Kawhi Leonard, and that’s Kevin Durant. But tonight Aldridge gets to face the Toronto Raptors who he has a nice history against. In 22 games, Aldridge is averaging a double double with 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assist. While that is a huge plus for Aldridge, the Toronto Raptors are allowing power forwards to average a double double with 20 points and 11 rebounds.
On the season, LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 19 points and 9 rebounds per game while seeing the floor for 32 minutes. With the revenge narrative going on between DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, LaMarcus Aldridge could be a huge beneficiary of the game becoming a shoot-out with more opportunities to come his way.
Other Valuable Option
Draymond Green vs. Houston Rockets
Salary: $5,900 – Needs to score 29.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
I’m probably the only one on this train but Draymond Green is priced very low and has a decent average versus the Houston Rockets. The last time these two teams faced, Draymond was a big disappointment not scoring at all but he did have 5 rebounds and 5 assist. This will most likely put many people off of Green plus he has had a pretty disappointing streak lately. Scoring 24.8 and 27.3 fantasy points in his past two games, Draymond should be able to bounce back tonight.
He is just averaging 7 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assist on the season but has been on a downhill slope since returning from injury and causing a little drama in the locker room with Kevin Durant. Houston is currently allowing power forwards to average 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist. With the focus being on Steph Curry, James Harden, and Kevin Durant, Draymond Green should be in line for a good performance at a low ownership.
NBA Draftkings Top Tier
Nikola Jokic vs. Sacramento Kings
Salary: $9,800 – Needs to score 49 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Now this center depth for tonight’s NBA Draftkings slate isn’t that overwhelming but Nikola Jokic does get to face the Sacramento Kings who aren’t the best at the center position. Nikola Jokic has faced the Sacramento Kings 11 times in his career, averaging a double double against them with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assist, making over 50% of his field goals.
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On the season, Jokic is averaging 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assist while playing around 3 minutes. He has only returned value in two of his last five games, scoring 32, 26, 43.3, 52.5, and 69.5 fantasy points. Jokic should easily be able to exceed value tonight versus the Sacramento Kings who are allowing centers to average 23 points, 19 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. This should be the best match-up at the center position, making Nikola Jokic a great play.
Other Valuable Option
Clint Capela vs. Golden State Warriors
Salary: $6,900 – Needs to score 34.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Other then the Sacramento Kings not being able to defend the center position that well, neither can the Golden State Warriors which makes Clint Capela a great match-up also. Clint Capela has returned value in four of his last five games, scoring 54.8, 53.8, 49.8, 21.8, and 38.8 fantasy points. He should be able to continue that streak of consistency tonight against the Warriors who are allowing centers to average 22 points, 16 rebounds and 4 assist.
In their first match-up of the season, Capela recorded a double double with 10 points and 10 rebounds. Capela is playing at a high level this season, averaging 17 points and 12 rebounds. This should be a pretty good match-up for him and he should be able to easily return value tonight if you choose to roster him.
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