Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies: Wildcard Weekend

Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies Wild Card Weekend

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story.

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Indianapolis: 10th Overall (Pass: 20th, Run: 4th)

Houston: 7th Overall (Pass: 18th, Run: 1st)

Indy will head to Houston to take on the Texans in the first round, in a game in which Houston opened around a -2.5 point favorite. Since opening, this has moved more towards the Colts, and is now as short as -1. While the Houston defense has serious splits against the pass/run, the game will be played out depending on the game plan of Frank Reich. The Colts will get back the services of their center, Ryan Kelly. Kelly has allowed Indy to run the ball much more efficiently, so if Reich looks to establish the run, there is a chance that a stout Houston run defense, has the advantage. However, if Reich elects to strike were his opponent is weak, the Colts will have obvious matchup advantages (Note: Luck had 44 pass attempts in their last meeting with HOU). T.Y. Hilton is dealing with a significant injury, but even at less than 100%, he could torch a slow Texan’s secondary. I’ll be targeting Luck, Hilton, Ebron, Inman, and Rodgers in all formats this weekend.

Seattle: 14th Overall (Pass: 13th, Run: 17th)

Dallas: 9th Overall (Pass: 16th, Run 5th)

Baltimore: 3rd Overall (Pass: 3rd, Run: 6th)

Los Angeles: 8th Overall (Pass: 10th, Run: 10th)

Philadelphia: 15th Overall (Pass: 15th, Run: 9th)

Chicago: 1st Overall (Pass: 1st, Run 2nd)

If you were lucky enough to jump out and grab an egregious +7 on the Eagles, you should be happy, however, I think Mitch Trubisky could have some success against the Philadelphia defense. In recent weeks, Trubisky has been less than stellar, in part due to having a more efficient running game, and also in part to having his receiving core banged up. It appears as if Robinson, Gabriel, and Miller, will all be playing this week. Philadelphia is known for it’s porous secondary and with a full arsenal and a brilliant head coach, I can see Mitch having success through the air. Additionally, Philadelphia has been gashed by running quarterbacks this year.

While Philadelphia does play zone, much more than the league average, and you would think that this would help them against mobile quarterbacks, it’s quite the opposite.

In week four, Mariota ran for 46 yards and a touchdown, also adding 344 through the air and two touchdowns. In week seven, Cam ran for 49 yards, including 269 yards through the air and two touchdowns. In week 16, Watson ran for 49 yards and two touchdowns, as well as 339 yards through the air and two touchdowns. This can mainly be attributed to an over zealous and at times, undisciplined, pass rush of the Eagles. While it’s the strong suit of the defense, it can be exploited and negated, by running quarterbacks. In an obvious, must win game, I would expect that Matt Nagy will have Mitch on the run a bit more than normal.

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