NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday January 3
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
We are only a few days into 2019 and the NBA DFS roller coaster has been vicious these last few days with Wednesday night’s slate dropping a hammer 2 minutes after lock (shocker) that Joel Embiid might sit. Embiid was 47% owned in the $25 Pick and Roll GPP on FantasyDraft and was not on any NBA Injury Report including the one the Sixers put out an hour before lock when Jimmy Butler was ruled out. Ultimately Embiid played and went off for 77 fantasy points which trailed only Anthony Davis and his 84 FPTS and those scores helped push the cash line higher due to the high ownership and winning GPP scores near 400 once again.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Thursday’s Three Game Slate:
On a three game NBA DFS slate like we have tonight, it becomes just as important sometimes who you do play versus who you do not play – I say it all the time, make your stand and simply move on.
The reason I bring that up is that everything on this slate starts and ends with James Harden ($19.4K) and how you approach him. With Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out for Houston – this is a fade at your own risk scenario with The Beard who just put up 80 fantasy points in the same scenario with CP3/Gordon out and that was against a Memphis team that is playing at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Tonight he goes up against the Golden State Warriors who are playing at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA over that same time period and at under $20K on FantasyDraft needs to be the first man in your builds. Against Memphis, on a six game slate, Harden was 45% owned in the $25 Pick and Roll on FantasyDraft – even if that number spikes to 75% tonight, I think you can argue that 25% of people are making a huge mistake. Go back and look at that Memphis game and the numbers Harden had – a 45.7% usage rate with 1.9 FP/M – the dude is doing it all and he will have to against a fully loaded Warriors team.
As far as the rest of the Rockets go – Clint Capela ($12.7K) would be the only other Rocket I would consider although his track record against Golden State is far from strong. In his last four games against the Warriors, Capela has failed to top 35 fantasy points in any game as the Warriors tend to neutralize teams opposing big men with their ability to go small.
I wonder if Houston will force the issue here tonight though with Capela – they may simply have to – you can’t try to match up with Golden State if they go small when you are down both CP3 and Eric Gordon. Your best bet is to keep Capela out there and try to run your offensive through him and Harden.
The rest of the Rockets – this is where it feels like the whole “who you don’t play is just as important” thing comes into play. Sure – Austin Rivers and Gerald Green are cheap – guys like PJ Tucker and Danuel House are going to be forced to play minutes but they all sit in this $8-$9K range that requires 25-30 fantasy points just to hit value and that feels like a spot where you are paying for their ceiling with incredibly volatile floors. If James Ennis returns and has no minutes limit, then I would have interest – he is minimum priced ($6K) on FantasyDraft on a slate we need value.
NBA DFS – Stack the Warriors:
The one argument you can make for fading James Harden tonight is the potential blowout concerns, not necessarily the 8 point Vegas spread – it’s the fact that Harden has to go into Golden State as a one man show and try to keep this thing close. With that in mind, to me it makes sense to prioritize the Warriors stars and build around a game script that stays close.
To me, building around Harden and then pieces from the other games does not make as much sense – if this game blows out, Harden will be on the bench but if it stays close and all you have is Harden, you are going to get lapped by the folks that have the Warriors stars running it back on the other side – just my initial read.
The pricing on FantasyDraft really is not overly taxing tonight and you can fairly easily roster Harden/Capela and run it back with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green and still have $7.3K per player for the last three spots on your roster, which is precisely the route I am looking at initially. You don’t need me to tell you all three are elite plays and the fact that you can build them all in around Harden without difficulty feels like the easiest path to roster construction today.
Finding the Value:
In order to make this or frankly any other build tonight work, you need to find value and what better spot than a REVENGE NARRATIVE. No – I am not talking about DeMar DeRozan and Kawhi Leonard – I am talking about Danny Green and Jakob Poetl!
OK maybe I am joking a little, but if you need value I think this Toronto-San Antonio game is the ideal spot to look especially on the San Antonio side with Rudy Gay unlikely to play once again. We saw the Spurs move the ex Raptor, Jacob Poetl ($6.8K) into the starting line-up against Boston where he played 20 minutes while it was really Davis Bertans ($7.4K) who get the biggest boost with 30 minutes of court time and 27 fantasy points. At these price points, I would argue both guys are in play.
With the Raptors down Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas, we have seen Danny Green ($7.7K) flash ceiling games at 24 and 30 fantasy points in two of his last four contests and while everyone is focused on angry Kawhi returning to San Antonio, including the Spurs defense, could we see them leave Green alone for some open 3’s?
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and is not meant to be a plug and play lineup.
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G: James Harden
G: Stephen Curry
G: Danny Green
F/C: Kevin Durant
F/C: Clint Capela
F/C: Draymond Green
UTIL: Jakob Poetl
UTIL: Davis Bertans
Slate Overview: My initial take on this slate is that the overwhelming narrative of Kawhi versus DeRozan in San Antonio will drive ownership up there and considering it is the lone early game and likely the only one we have lineups for – I could see the ownership being more skewed to Raptors/Spurs which feels odd to say for a game with a slate low total (216) that is 10 points lower than the other games.
If you are going to make James Harden your core first man in, then I think it makes the most sense from a game theory perspective to stack up that Warriors/Rockets game and hope the stars in the Toronto/San Antonio game fall short.
If you are taking the approach of fading Harden (good luck) then I think you take a stand and either stack Toronto/SA or pivot completely to Nuggets/Kings in a game that has the highest total and fastest projected pace. You think people will really pay $18K for Nikola Jokic when for less than $2K more they can get up to Mr. Harden?
On slates like this, I tend to game stack and hope I picked the right spot in tournaments. Let’s hope Coach Pop can slow down an angry Kawhi and the Houston/Golden State late night hammer brings it home for us!
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