The National Championship Game between Alabama and Clemson has a lot of star power, but it could be one of these X-factors that decides the game.
In their last matchup, Alabama stifled Clemson 24-6 en route to the national title game versus Georgia and another national championship. Each year, the debate between mastermind coaches Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney arises. This year, though, is different. Here are the three X-factors who will decide who takes home the trophy in 2019.
3: Can Clemson contain Tua Tagovailoa?
All season long, Alabama’s quarterback has wreaked havoc on every defense he has faced, removed Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Clemson ranked second in total defense this past season, allowing an FBS-best 4.05 yards per play and 12.9 points per game; the Tigers also rank first in sacks with 52. It’s no question that Clemson hopes to be able to keep Tua Tagovailoa contained on the ground.
Through the air, Clemson only allows 182 yards per game, good for 16th in the nation. Despite not having played a majority of fourth quarters this season, Tagovailoa has eclipsed 3,600 yards and averages 11.4 yards per attempt, second only to Kyler Murray (11.6). Alabama relies on Tua’s big-play ability to cripple opponents, something Clemson should be able to minimize. Just the game prior, Notre Dame’s Ian Book was held to 4.7 yards per passing attempt and 1.8 yards per rushing attempt.
Just because the Tigers defense is built to slow down electric quarterbacks doesn’t mean they can ignore the ground game. Alabama has a myriad of talented runners like Josh Jacobs, who piled up over 150 total yards against Oklahoma. The absence of Dexter Lawrence in this game might prove to be a huge hurdle for the defense in their toughest test yet.
However, if Clemson is able to keep Tua in check, they have a much easier route to their third championship and second in three years.
2: Trevor Lawrence vs. the Alabama defense
The freshman looked phenomenal against Notre Dame, slinging the ball all around the field and piling up 327 yards and three touchdowns. The moment wasn’t too big for Lawrence as he fit the ball in tight windows and looked calm and collected. Versus pressure, though, Lawrence wasn’t as picture-perfect, with his freshman inexperience showing through.
Alabama has racked up 45 sacks in 2018, ranking eighth in the country. In the National Championship game, the Crimson Tide will look to put the pressure on Lawrence with complex blitz packages and some daunting edge pressure. Bringing linebackers and defensive backs late up the middle should keep Lawrence throwing off his back foot, which caused some questionable decisions in the semifinal game on Dec. 29.
The Tide forced Heisman quarterback Kyler Murray into an atrocious 51 percent completion percentage, his worst of the season, and his worst QBR of 2018. Alabama didn’t allow Murray to complete a pass until the third drive, and he finished the first quarter 1-5 passing and was sacked twice. Alabama will almost certainly bring the same pressure against Lawrence, who lacks the dazzling big-play ability with his legs that Murray has.
However, it is hard to criticize a freshman quarterback who amassed nearly 3,000 yards and 27 touchdowns despite sitting out many fourth quarters due to huge blowouts. If Lawrence can rise to the moment and continue his incredible decision-making, Alabama will have their hands full with a talented quarterback yet again.
1: Josh Jacobs vs. Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence-less defense
The junior running back had one of his best games against Oklahoma, rushing for 98 yards and adding another 60 receiving. Jacobs scored once on a long throw that was capitalized with a thundering hit on Oklahoma safety Robert Barnes en route to the end zone. Carrying the ball, he broke ankles and tackles left and right, averaging 6.5 yards on 15 carries.
Despite only touching the ball 128 times all year, ESPN analyst and broadcaster, Kirk Herbstreit said Jacobs, “could be the best pro prospect on [Alabama’s] offense” in a recent FanSided interview. Jacobs also had a huge impact on the SEC Championship game, rushing for over 10 yards per carry and two scores. However, his Orange Bowl showing versus Oklahoma might have been his best performance all year.
Without Dexter Lawrence clogging up the middle of the field, Alabama will look to establish their run game early on to open passing lanes for Tagovailoa. Jacobs will be utilized to test the stellar Tigers’ defensive line, which still includes two All-Americans and an All-ACC mention. The Irish tried to establish the run game in a game that Lawrence also missed, and failed to the tune of a miserable 2.5 yards per carry. If Alabama can crack the impenetrable line with a combination of Jacobs and second-team All-SEC selection, Damien Harris, they will set themselves up for a huge victory and another national championship.