DraftKings NBA Picks January 4: Should we pay for Giannis?

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 20: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts to his three pointer late in the game leading to a 124-115 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on October 20, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 4: Should we pay for Giannis?

We have our largest DraftKings NBA slate of the week with ten games on our Friday night. LeBron is still out, so we only have two players in five digit pricing and five more in the $9,000 range. Is it a night to build a balanced lineup, or do we absolutely need one or two of these guys?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,300): Truthfully, I really don’t like this price on Westbrook. His shot has been putrid in three of the last five games. You are pretty much relying on a triple double to save his line. However, Westbrook has averaged 56 DraftKings points per game in 19 career meetings against Lillard. There is value potential here, but I don’t see Westbrook as a must play. His shot just doesn’t look right.

Damian Lillard ($8,600): If you are hanging out in the upper tier of point guards, it really doesn’t look like Westbrook is $2,700 better than Lillard right now. That said, compared to others of their price, we can probably do better elsewhere. Lillard has only averaged 38.5 DraftKings points against Westbrook, but he is playing at a high enough level right now that he at least deserves consideration.

Honorable Mention:

Mike Conley ($7,400): Conley says he’s playing. The team says he is questionable, so we do have to keep an eye on this. However, the Nets are terrible against point guards. Conley was nothing short of horrible against Detroit on Wednesday, but he ravaged the Nets for 61.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. If Conley does play, I will definitely have some exposure to him.

Eric Bledsoe ($6,600): Atlanta’s defense is so weak everywhere that I kind of fear Bledsoe will get lost in the shuffle. He doesn’t take a ton of shots when everyone else is healthy. Bledsoe is a good passer and capable rebounder, so he could hit value here. I just don’t see the huge game that we think of when we see someone playing the Hawks. That will come to others in this lineup.

Terry Rozier ($6,100): The Celtics did the DFS world a solid and already ruled Kyrie out for this game. That means another start for Rozier, who went for a strong 39.25 DraftKings points with Irving out on Wednesday. This is another great spot for Rozier. He may not be bargain priced here, but I still love him in the mid range.

Dark Horses:

Tyus Jones ($5,800): It’s hard to fade Jones because you know he is going to play a ton of minutes with Rose and Teague both doubtful. Of course, doubtful doesn’t mean what it used to. Gay was doubtful yesterday. If both are out again, this is a tough matchup against Orlando. That said, Jones has at least 34 DraftKings points in all three of his starts. He should still get to 5x value here.

Tomas Satoransky ($5,800): Satoransky still continues to play well in the absence of Wall. He has 103.25 DraftKings points in the three games with Wall out so far. This is probably pretty close to the ceiling for Satoransky, but he is still around 5.5x value. I can find room for that in my lineup!

Tyler Johnson ($5,300): Most of the value guards are priced up now since they are starting their third games in a row. Johnson doesn’t start, so his price always stays in this area. That can be a good thing. Johnson is by far the leader of the second unit, a unit which plays quite a few minutes for Miami. This is a really good spot for Johnson against Washington. If Conley is out, you can drop down to Mack, but I’m not really comfortable with anything below this.

My pick: Rozier(PG); Rozier(PG), Johnson(G)

WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 28: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on during the closing seconds of the Wizards 101-92 loss to the Chicago Bulls at Capital One Arena on December 28, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($9,200): Beal was a slight disappointment against the Hawks, coming up with “only” 42 DraftKings points. The floor on Beal is still very solid, which makes him a good cash play. However, with his price this high, he needs 55.8 DraftKings points to reach 6x value. That’s a hard sell for GPP’s considering Beal has only hit that mark once this year, and that was in a triple overtime game.

Devin Booker ($9,000): This isn’t a great matchup for Booker, but he is turning into James Harden Jr. Like Harden, Booker is the primary scorer and ballhandler since the team doesn’t really have a point guard. Booker’s usage rate, shot attempts, and time with the ball make him worth a look just about every night. The only thing he doesn’t have is the ability to beast every night like Harden does. That may come in time though.

Victor Oladipo ($8,800): Oladipo seems to be back to normal. That’s good news for us DFS players and bad news for the Bulls. Oladipo slapped 58 DraftKings points on the Bulls in 35 minutes earlier this season. There really is no reason to think that he can’t do the same here.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($7,400): We saw Harden torch Memphis earlier this week, but that’s Harden, right? Well, Russell tagged the Grizzlies for 45.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting this year. Of course, Russell probably wont play 45 minutes again unless this goes to overtime again, but with only 37 DraftKings points needed for value, it’s safe to assume we can get that from Russell.

Brandon Ingram ($6,800): It looks like I was a couple of games early on Ingram. As soon as LeBron went down, I jumped to Ingram. It took Ingram a couple of games to get going, but he plays more minutes than any other Laker. The production was bound to come. Ingram has 88 DraftKings points over the last two games. This could be a huge spot for the versatile Ingram if Kuzma is out tonight along with LeBron.

Josh Hart ($6,200): Hart continues to smash with LeBron out. He has 80 DraftKings points over the past two games, and has not been under 27 with James out. To me, Hart’s price still looks a little low. If Kuzma misses this game, I would expect to see Hart start at SG and Ingram at the three. There is plenty of room for both of them, and plenty of value with the Knicks in town.

Dark Horses:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,900): Somehow KCP was dug up and resurrected for DFS purposes. I think LeBron did it. More accurately, the injury to LeBron. KCP has 75 DraftKings points over the last two games, and should have a large role in the offense against the Knicks tonight. He is a superb value pick right now since his price isn’t fully adjusted.

Alec Burks ($4,400): For those of you that like narratives, and there are many who do, this is Burks’ first crack at his only former team. Sure, Utah’s defense is good, but Burks has carved out a nice role for this young team. Cleveland has a plethora of wing players to attack Utah with, but only one of them used to play in a Jazz uniform.

Mikal Bridges ($4,000): In some ways, Bridges is exactly what you want in a GPP bargain play. He gets a lot of minutes on a young team that has only one real scorer. That means Bridges is going to get plenty of opportunities. His shot isn’t falling lately, but about a week ago, Bridges was hitting better than half of anything he tossed up. There is solid potential here, especially for the price. Bridges has at least 5x value in three of the last six contests.

My pick: Hart(SG); Beal(SG), Bridges(UTIL)

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 02: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder celebrates his alley oop dunk during a 107-100 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on January 02, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($9,700): How great of a slate is this? You can use a center against the Nets and forwards against Portland all at reasonable prices! Portland has had real issues defending both forward positions. We have seen George top 50 DraftKings points in six of the last ten games, and hit value in two more of those. I would say that 50 is likely here tonight.

Luka Doncic ($7,400): Doncic is priced down against Boston, but with Irving out, he should still hit value here. Honestly, it hasn’t much mattered who the opponent is. Doncic has still been one of the best all around players on in this price range. Smith is dishing out most of the assists since he is back, but Doncic still does his share of running the offense. His price was untenable about a week ago, but I’m comfortable using him in this range.

Kyle Kuzma ($7,300): Word is that Kuzma’s injury is not a serious one, but he is still questionable. If this were a playoff game, he would be in there. However, for a team with playoff aspirations, do you really need Kuzma in there against the Knicks in January? Probably not. The Lakers have plenty of bench components that have played well when forced into action with the King sidelined. I would expect Kuzma to sit, but if he does end up playing, this is a really good spot for him if he is not on a minutes limit.

Honorable Mention:

Danilo Gallinari ($7,000): Gallinari has torched the Suns this year. He has 91.25 DraftKings points in 70 minutes, shooting a robust 59% from the floor. The Suns can’t guard him, but they have managed to keep both meetings fairly close so far. That means lots of minutes for both Gallinari and Harris. Both are tempting mid level plays tonight.

Josh Richardson ($6,900): Richardson has gutted Washington for 83.25 DraftKings points in the two meetings this season. He continues to be one of the better scorers on the Miami team, and he is one of the few that is always guaranteed 32 minutes. Richardson looks like a strong play against Washington again.

Justise Winslow ($6,700): Wow, this is tempting. Washington is arguably the worst all around defensive team in the league right now. Miami is mostly healthy, so that could cut a little into the production of everyone on the team. Miami runs about nine guys 25 minutes per game and few play more than 32. That hampers the production of everyone.

Dark Horses:

Kevin Knox ($5,900): We have seen Knox put up a couple of huge games in the middle of his usually solid production. That makes him a pretty good value pick. His floor seems to be around 20 DraftKings points, but on the high end we have seen him flirt with 60. The Lakers could be without both starting forwards, which could open things up a bit for Knox. There is pretty good potential here.

Mo Harkless ($4,200): I think if we have played DFS for any extended period of time, we still have char marks across many lineups from Harkless. He’s hard to rely on. However, Harkless has 89 DraftKings points over his last three games. He is quietly playing solid basketball right now. Both he and Aminu are worth a look depending on your budget.

Daniel Hamilton ($3,400): Hamilton has quietly snuck into the Atlanta starting lineup with Bazemore out. Though Bembry sees more of the minutes, Hamilton has been pretty good when he is in there. Hamilton has 38.75 DraftKings points in 37 minutes over the last two games. That puts him well over 5x value in his current role.

My pick: George(SF), KCP(G), Hamilton(F); George(SF), Harkless(F)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 21: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks claps during the third quarter of the game against New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on December 21, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700): If there were one of these price behemoths that I would think about rostering, it would have to be Giannis. He could put up massive numbers against the Hawks, but that would require this game staying close. Vegas doesn’t think it will since the spread looks more like a Falcons-Packers line that Bucks-Hawks. Milwaukee is a two touchdown favorite, so chances are Giannis wont play much, if any, more than 30 minutes. Giannis may hit value in that time, but that’s a pretty big risk to take for almost 1/4 of your salary.

John Collins ($7,500): I don’t really care who Collins is playing at this point. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in every game for over a month now. That’s a really solid floor for this price point. I don’t expect Collins to go nuts on Milwaukee, but he should be right around 5x value. I probably like Collins better in cash games against Giannis and company. The Hawks are going to risk injuring Collins in a blowout either.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($7,100): Once again, Harris is priced well in the middle tier. He has already faced the Suns twice this year. Harris has come away with 88.5 DraftKings points in 74 minutes against them. This should should easily be Harris’s best outing of the 2019 calendar year so far.

Lauri Markkanen ($6,500): Lots of people are going to flock to Sabonis and Harrell based on matchups, and I get it. However, Markkaenen is going to get you a lot more bang for your buck. Sabonis and Harrell are both coming off the bench and both need at least 35 DraftKings points to hit value. That’s on the high end of what they are capable of. Markkanen only needs 32.5 DraftKings points for 5x value. He put up 43.5 against Indiana in just 32 minutes in the first meeting. Markkanen looks like a far better play here.

Thomas Bryant ($6,000): Bryant went nuts with his second straight 40+ DraftKings point game on Wednesday night. Washington is still pretty thin up front, but Markieff now has a questionable tag and could play. If Washington decides to give Kieff the job back despite Bryant’s recent run, they are not only dysfunctional, they are morons. This is another good spot for Bryant, and it should be regardless of the status of Markieff Morris.

Dark Horses:

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5,600): Jackson mauled the Nets for a whopping 50 DraftKings points, his career high, in the first meeting. Jackson has played well when Memphis gives him run, but they play Green based on matchups. Keep an eye on the starting lineups for this one. Green was out the first time these teams played. If Green starts, stay off of Jackson. If Jackson is in there, he could have another big game.

Luke Kornet ($5,400): Kornet is still starting over Enes Kanter (WHAT?), so he’s worth using at this price. Kortnet has been over 30 DraftKings points in all three of his starts. I don’t think the Lakers can stop him if Denver, Utah, and Milwaukee couldn’t.

DeMarre Carroll ($4,700): Carroll ravaged Memphis for 42.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. With RHJ out for a while, Carroll should see extended run since the Nets don’t want to play Faried either. Carroll is priced way too low tonight, and is going to be one of my favorite value plays in all formats.

My pick: Markkanen(PF); Carroll(PF)

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 07: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves dunks on JaVale McGee #7 of the Los Angeles Lakers during the first half at Staples Center on November 7, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900): Towns overcame a bad matchup on paper to put up 55.5 DraftKings points on a strong Boston front. Orlando is similarly difficult up front, but Towns is the Minnesota offense right now. Rose, Teague, and Covington are all out again. You could probably even talk me into Wiggins at this point, but Towns is the alpha and omega of Minnesota DFS plays tonight.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,300): Towns isn’t a strong defensive player even when he isn’t expending all of his energy on offense. He has been better this year than in year’s past, but this looks like a really nice spot for Vucevic. I would play both of them if we didn’t have someone playing the Nets.

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Honorable Mention:

Marc Gasol ($8,100): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! And Gasol put up 51.25 DraftKings points up on them in the first meeting. Gasol has been in a bit of a funk lately, but this will snap him out of it.

Deandre Ayton ($7,800): Ayton has 70.25 DraftKings points in just 58 minutes against the Clippers this year. That was before this version of Ayton. He is becoming more aggressive on offense. Add that to his already strong rebounding, and we are witnessing a walking double double.

Myles Turner ($7,600): Turner should play tonight, but we have seen masks have different effects on players. It turned Embiid into a trashier trash talking version of his former self. Some players have had issues with their shots with a mask on. Turner should be somewhere in between. He has 85.5 DraftKings points in just 60 minutes against the Bulls this year. If the mask doesn’t bug him, Turner is in for another big game.

Dark Horses:

Hassan Whiteside ($6,800): Whiteside’s price is down to a point where I will consider him now, but honestly, it’s more about the opponent. The Wizards are even weaker up front right now, and Whiteside pushed them around in the first two meetings. He’s still losing minutes to Bam, but the upside here outweighs the risk. Whiteside could hit 40 DraftKings points in 25 minutes in this one.

Brook Lopez ($5,700): Lopez is kind of toiling in obscurity alongside all of the stars the Bucks have, but he has at least 25 DraftKings points in six straight games. This looks like another in that streak because the Hawks are weak up front. Lopez is going to be a popular value play.

Wendell Carter ($4,900): Carter was a complete bust against Orlando on Wednesday scoring just 0.75 DraftKings points in 13 minutes. It’s the Bulls, so I guess we never know which way they’ll go, but Carter has 72.25 DraftKings points in 55 minutes against Indiana this year. This is a great value spot for Carter so long as the Bulls play him.

My pick: Gasol(C), Carter(UTIL); Whiteside(C)

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